ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Alex Barrena #261Argentina2Maxime Chazal #429France1

Sets 6-4 · 1-6 · 6-3Tue 15 Sept 2026, 11:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex Barrena · 168 places

Alex Barrena

Argentina

Argentine right-hander whose highest singles ranking is No. 167, reached in March 2026. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #261
Peak ranking: #167 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Maxime Chazal

France

Chazal, 33, is the right-hander with a one-handed backhand in this matchup. He reached a career-high No. 234 on 7 March 2016.

Current ranking: #429
Peak ranking: #234 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Maxime Chazal is in excellent form on clay, with a 12-2 record in his last 14 matches, while Alex Barrena has been inconsistent.

Chazal's superior serve and return stats give him a clear edge, and the betting market undervalues him at 2.50. Best bets: Chazal to win and Chazal 2-0.

Context

Chazal, 32, is a clay-court specialist with a career win rate above 60% and has been playing mostly lower-level events this summer.
Chazal's recent 12-3 run includes several dominant wins over lower-ranked opponents, while Barrena has been more inconsistent, losing to players ranked outside the top 200. Chazal's first-serve points won (71.7%) and return points won (43.1%) are both higher than Barrena's (61.4% and 40.3%), suggesting he can control rallies more effectively on this surface.
- Chazal last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), Barrena: 8-7 (53.3%).
- Chazal clay last 14: 12-2 (85.7%), Barrena clay last 15: 8-7 (53.3%).
- Chazal first-serve points won: 71.7%, Barrena: 61.4%.
- Chazal return points won: 43.1%, Barrena: 40.3%.
Barrena, 24, has been grinding through Challenger qualifying and main draws, often needing three sets to advance.
Barrena's last match on September 11 lasted three sets and over two hours, and he has played four matches in the last six days. Chazal's most recent match was a straight-set loss on September 7, giving him a full week to recover. This difference in freshness could matter in a best-of-three clay match.
- Barrena's last match: 6-7(2) 7-5 7-5 win over Zdenek Kolar on Sep 11.
- Barrena played 4 matches between Sep 7 and Sep 12.
- Chazal's last match: 6-4 6-4 loss to Titouan Droguet on Sep 7.
- Chazal has had 7 days off before this match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Chazal's superior recent form and serve/return structural edge on clay make him the clear favorite.
- Chazal last 15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Barrena 8-7 (53.3%)
- Chazal clay last 14 record 12-2 (85.7%), Barrena clay last 15 8-7 (53.3%)
- Chazal first serve points won 71.7% vs Barrena 61.4% in last 15
- Chazal return points won 43.1% vs Barrena 40.3% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaxime ChazalEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay matchup with both players capable of extending sets points to a higher total games count.
- Barrena last 15 average 21.5 games per match (160 games in 15 matches)
- Chazal last 15 average 21.1 games per match (186 games in 15 matches)
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chazal's superior game-winning percentage suggests he can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Chazal games won percentage 58.7% vs Barrena 49.5% in last 15
- Chazal clay games won percentage 59.9%
- Chazal won 8 of last 15 matches by 4+ games margin
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMaxime Chazal -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been competitive, making over 9.5 games a plausible low-confidence outcome.
- Barrena first set average 9.3 games in last 15
- Chazal first set average 9.5 games in last 15
- Both players have had close first sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Chazal's strong set-winning rate and first-set conversion suggest he is likely to take the opener.
- Chazal first set win conversion career 88%, Barrena 86%
- Chazal last 15 sets won 78.8%, Barrena 47.1%
- Chazal clay last 14 sets won 83.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaxime ChazalEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 4.10
The read
Chazal's dominance in recent clay matches suggests a straight-set victory is more likely than a three-setter.
- Chazal won 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Barrena lost 7 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Chazal clay last 14 sets won 83.9%
BetBugs · Set BettinglostMaxime Chazal 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Chazal's straight-set tendency and Barrena's recent straight-set losses support a two-set match.
- Chazal won 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Barrena lost 7 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Chazal clay last 14 sets won 83.9%
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates suggest a modest total, but over 3.5 is plausible given Chazal's higher ace count.
- Chazal averages 2.6 aces per match in last 15
- Barrena averages 1.4 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average 4.0 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates are near the line, making over 3.5 a reasonable low-confidence pick.
- Chazal averages 1.5 double faults per match in last 15
- Barrena averages 1.9 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 3.4 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Alex Barrena

8W 7L

6-2 6-3#282Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva 6-7(2) 7-5 7-5#175Zdenek Kolar

6-2 6-7(3) 6-3#825Nico Hipfl

3-6 6-2 6-3#345Ognjen Milic

7-6(3) 6-3#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-3 6-2#212Maxim Mrva

5-1 ret.#191Lukas Neumayer

6-2 6-3#325Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-4 6-4#392Georgii Kravchenko

6-4 6-1#215Henri Squire

7-6(4) 6-2#205Timofey Skatov

6-3 6-2#76Jan Choinski

3-6 6-3 6-3#424Johan Nikles

6-2 6-3#430Niels Visker

6-4 3-6 7-6(2)#229Stefano Napolitano

Maxime Chazal

12W 3L

6-4 6-4#103Titouan Droguet

6-2 6-4#850Kenny de Schepper

6-1 6-2—Liam Branger

6-3 7-5—Pierre Antoine Tailleu

6-4 6-2#893Daniel Bagnolini

6-3 6-3—Filip Malis

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)#778Michael Agwi

6-3 6-3—Kaspar Mathes

6-2 6-0—Vincent Dullinger

6-3 7-6(2)—David Fix

7-6(10) 6-4#704Ziga Sesko

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3—Christian Djonov

7-6(5) 6-4—Tim Hammes

6-1 6-7(2) 6-3#600Pierre Delage

6-2 6-2—Nicolas Ifi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAlex BarrenaBarrena

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Maxime ChazalChazalMC

Maxime Chazal carries the stronger recent form — Alex Barrena's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In61.5%+10.4pp71.9%

1st Serve Won61.4%+10.3pp71.7%

2nd Serve Won51.8%+2.5pp54.3%

Aces / Match1.4+1.22.6

Double Faults / Match1.90.4 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.3%+2.8pp43.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.2%+4.3pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved55.0%+6.2pp61.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+5.3pp54.4%

Serve · 0–5

61.5%1st Serve In+10.4pp71.9%

61.4%1st Serve Won+10.3pp71.7%

51.8%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp54.3%

1.4Aces / Match+1.22.6

1.9Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

40.3%Return Pts Won+2.8pp43.1%

Pressure · 1–1

47.2%Break Pts Converted+4.3pp42.9%

55.0%Break Pts Saved+6.2pp61.2%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+5.3pp54.4%

Alex Barrena

Maxime Chazal

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Maxime Chazal

Maxime Chazal

Maxime Chazal 2-0

Under 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Alex Barrena

Maxime Chazal

Stat Battle