Hayato Matsuoka #309Japan11 – 2Lloyd Harris #1792

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10

The read

Harris has a clear recent form and ranking edge on hard courts, with superior serve and break point resilience.

• Harris last 15 on hard: 13-2 record, 75.7% sets won, 57.3% games won
• Matsuoka last 15 on hard: 9-6 record, 58.8% sets won, 53.2% games won
• Harris ranking 139 vs Matsuoka ranking 255
• Harris break point saved 73.1% vs Matsuoka 49.1% in last 15

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown competitive matches with multiple three-setters, pushing total games above the line.

• Matsuoka last 15 average games per match: 22.2 (333 games / 15 matches)
• Harris last 15 average games per match: 24.8 (372 games / 15 matches)
• Matsuoka has played 3 three-set matches in last 15, Harris 5 three-set matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' first sets often extend beyond 9 games, with Harris's serve keeping sets close.

• Harris first set average games in last 15: 10.1 (151 games / 15 sets)
• Matsuoka first set average games in last 15: 9.5 (142 games / 15 sets)
• Harris has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 first sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have trended toward longer games, with both players capable of holding serve.

• Harris second set average games in last 15: 9.9 (148 games / 15 sets)
• Matsuoka second set average games in last 15: 9.3 (139 games / 15 sets)
• Matsuoka has played 3 tiebreaks in last 15 second sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Harris's superior set win rate and break point conversion should carry through the second set.

• Harris sets won 75.7% in last 15 on hard
• Matsuoka sets won 58.8% in last 15 on hard
• Harris break point converted 61.3% vs Matsuoka 41.7%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Harris's high ace rate alone nearly covers the line, with Matsuoka adding a few more.

• Harris aces per match last 15: 8.9
• Matsuoka aces per match last 15: 3.4
• Combined average aces per match: 12.3

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have frequent tiebreaks, and Harris's strong serve increases the likelihood of at least one.

• Harris has played 5 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
• Matsuoka has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
• Harris tiebreak win percentage career 52%, Matsuoka 45%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined double fault averages sit just below the line, but variance in a competitive match could push it over.

• Matsuoka double faults per match last 15: 3.4
• Harris double faults per match last 15: 2.0
• Combined average double faults per match: 5.4