Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Kenta Miyoshi #495Japan1Philip Sekulic #353Australia2

Sets 7-6 · 6-7 · 3-6Wed 16 Sept 2026, 04:55 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–271%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePhilip Sekulic · 142 places

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

Reliable public profile details beyond the supplied ranking and playing style were limited in the requested search. No current injury or availability report surfaced for 17 July–16 August 2026.

Current ranking: #495
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Philip Sekulic

Australia

Sekulic reached a career-high No. 225 in July 2024. His ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #353
Peak ranking: #225 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 15:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Miyoshi has better recent form, serve efficiency, and a prior H2H win, making him the likely winner, but the odds offer little value.

Totals markets like over 21.5 games and over 9.5 aces present better betting opportunities given both players' recent match patterns.

Context

Miyoshi, 452nd, has been the more consistent player on hard courts recently, winning 10 of his last 15 matches and posting better serve and return numbers than Sekulic.
Sekulic has struggled for consistency, winning just 7 of his last 15 and losing to lower-ranked opponents like Sora Fukuda. Miyoshi's superior recent form and his 6-4 7-5 win over Sekulic in July 2025 give him a clear edge in this matchup, though Sekulic's higher ranking and bigger serve could keep the match close.
- Miyoshi's last 15 record is 10-5 (66.7%), while Sekulic's is 7-8 (46.7%).
- Miyoshi won their only previous meeting 6-4 7-5 on hard court in July 2025.
- Miyoshi has won 53.7% of total points in his last 15 matches, compared to Sekulic's 49.6%.
Sekulic's serve has been a liability recently, with 63 double faults in his last 15 matches and a second-serve win rate below 50%.
Miyoshi converts break points at 43.5% and wins 42.6% of return points, so Sekulic's double-fault tendency could lead to more break chances. If Sekulic cannot improve his second serve, Miyoshi may control rallies and pressure his service games.
- Sekulic averages 4.2 double faults per match in his last 15, compared to Miyoshi's 2.1.
- Sekulic wins only 48.7% of second-serve points, while Miyoshi wins 53.8%.
- Miyoshi has converted 43.5% of break points in his last 15 matches.
Miyoshi, 23, is the ATP No. 452 right-hander in this matchup and completed his University of Illinois degree in May 2026.
This match falls in the opening months of his post-college professional schedule, so his tour-level sample is still limited. That makes his recent form less predictive than for a player with a longer pro record.
- Miyoshi completed a degree in strategy, innovation, and entrepreneurship in May 2026 after finishing his Illinois career.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 15:26 · Europe/BucharestUniversity of Illinois Athleticsfightingillini.com · 3 Jun 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Kenta Miyoshi

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Miyoshi's stronger recent form and serve efficiency, plus a prior H2H win, give him the edge.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Kenta Miyoshi

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Miyoshi's superior first-serve and return numbers in the recent window support taking the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Miyoshi's stronger recent form and serve efficiency, plus a prior H2H win, give him the edge.
- Miyoshi last15 record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Sekulic 7-8 (46.7%)
- Miyoshi last15 total points won 53.7% vs Sekulic 49.6%
- Miyoshi last15 first serve points won 76.5% vs Sekulic 66.0%
- H2H: Miyoshi won 6-4 7-5 on hard in July 2025
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKenta MiyoshiEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths and competitive sets suggest a total above 21.5 games.
- Miyoshi last15 average 22.4 games per match
- Sekulic last15 average 21.1 games per match
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have often been competitive, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Miyoshi recent first sets include 7-6, 6-4, 4-6
- Sekulic recent first sets include 6-2, 6-4, 3-6
- Both players have similar first-serve percentages around 56-63%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Miyoshi's edge in games won percentage supports a -2.5 game handicap.
- Miyoshi last15 games won 54.8% vs Sekulic 47.5%
- Miyoshi last15 total points won 53.7% vs Sekulic 49.6%
- Miyoshi won H2H by 4 games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKenta Miyoshi -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Miyoshi's superior first-serve and return numbers in the recent window support taking the opening set.
- Miyoshi first set win conversion career 89% vs Sekulic 86%
- Miyoshi last15 first serve points won 76.5% vs Sekulic 66.0%
- Miyoshi last15 return points won 42.6% vs Sekulic 40.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKenta MiyoshiEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates from recent windows support over 9.5 total aces.
- Miyoshi last15 aces per match 6.0
- Sekulic last15 aces per match 3.7
- Combined average 9.7 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sekulic's high double fault rate pushes the combined total above 5.5.
- Miyoshi last15 double faults per match 2.1
- Sekulic last15 double faults per match 4.2
- Combined average 6.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Close sets and similar serve stats make a tiebreak likely.
- Miyoshi career tiebreak win percentage 42%
- Sekulic career tiebreak win percentage 49%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Kenta Miyoshi has been highly reliable when projected to win

Kenta Miyoshi has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win predictions, a strong 80% rate. The average estimated probability was 63%, with an expected 3.2 fulfilled predictions, so he outperformed expectations. His only miss came at a lower 55% probability, while successful predictions averaged 65%.

Recent evidence for Kenta Miyoshi5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Samsun - Turkey

#602Kenta Miyoshi1-2#507Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

BetBugsKenta Miyoshi to win·55%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

Samsun - Turkey

#602Kenta Miyoshi1-2#507Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Kenta Miyoshi to win

55%probability

Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine won

Missed

30 Jul·Samsun - Turkey

#224Dan Added1-2#602Kenta Miyoshi

BetBugsKenta Miyoshi to win·58%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

Samsun - Turkey

#224Dan Added1-2#602Kenta Miyoshi

Kenta Miyoshi to win

58%probability

Kenta Miyoshi won

Matched

28 Jul·Samsun - Turkey

#602Kenta Miyoshi2-0#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

BetBugsKenta Miyoshi to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Samsun - Turkey

#602Kenta Miyoshi2-0#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

Kenta Miyoshi to win

62%probability

Kenta Miyoshi won

Matched

13 Jul·Granby - Canada

#508Karl Poling1-2#817Kenta Miyoshi

BetBugsKenta Miyoshi to win·68%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#508Karl Poling1-2#817Kenta Miyoshi

Kenta Miyoshi to win

68%probability

Kenta Miyoshi won

Matched

13 Jul·Granby - Canada

#764Kenta Miyoshi2-0#621Bruno Kuzuhara

BetBugsKenta Miyoshi to win·72%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#764Kenta Miyoshi2-0#621Bruno Kuzuhara

Kenta Miyoshi to win

72%probability

Kenta Miyoshi won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 7-5Kenta Miyoshi#452vPhilip Sekulic#348Jul 8, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Kenta Miyoshi

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#438Moerani Bouzige

7-6(2) 6-3#648Filip Peliwo

4-6 6-4 7-5#199Moise Kouame

6-2 4-6 6-2#278Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-2 6-4#191Clement Chidekh

6-2 7-5#179Joel Schwaerzler

4-6 7-5 6-1#657Roger Pascual Ferra

6-0 6-1#674Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#337Lucas Poullain

6-3 6-2#296Mert Alkaya

6-3 7-6(0)#818Arda Azkara

6-2 6-4#700Hunter Heck

7-6(1) 6-2#600Erik Arutiunian

4-6 6-4 6-4#436Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-2 6-4#408Vadym Ursu

Philip Sekulic

7W 8L

6-2 2-6 7-5#399Yuta Shimizu

6-4 6-3#177Ilia Simakin

6-2 4-6 7-5#467Koki Matsuda

6-3 1-0 ret.#438Moerani Bouzige

2-6 6-0 6-1#849Sora Fukuda

3-6 6-4 4-0 ret.#894Yunseong Chung

6-2 6-2#191Clement Chidekh

6-3 4-6 6-1#126Shintaro Mochizuki

6-2 6-1#330Murphy Cassone

6-1 1-6 6-3#170Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-0#696Strong Kirchheimer

6-3 6-3#864Patrick Maloney

7-5 6-7(4) 7-5#462Blake Ellis

6-2 7-5#192Keegan Smith

6-0 6-2—Kriish Tyagi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KMKenta MiyoshiMiyoshi

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Philip SekulicSekulicPS

Kenta Miyoshi carries the stronger recent form — Philip Sekulic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In55.7%+7.3pp63.0%

1st Serve Won76.5%+10.5pp66.0%

2nd Serve Won53.8%+5.1pp48.7%

Aces / Match6.0+2.33.7

Double Faults / Match2.12.1 fewer4.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.6%+2.6pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.5%+5.4pp48.9%

Break Pts Saved50.7%+4.8pp45.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.7%+4.1pp49.6%

Serve · 4–1

55.7%1st Serve In+7.3pp63.0%

76.5%1st Serve Won+10.5pp66.0%

53.8%2nd Serve Won+5.1pp48.7%

6.0Aces / Match+2.33.7

2.1Double Faults / Match2.1 fewer4.2

Return · 1–0

42.6%Return Pts Won+2.6pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

43.5%Break Pts Converted+5.4pp48.9%

50.7%Break Pts Saved+4.8pp45.9%

Points · 1–0

53.7%Total Pts Won+4.1pp49.6%