United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Dan Martin #636Canada0Alex Rybakov #507United States2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 21:45 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex Rybakov · 129 places

Dan Martin

Canada

Reliable current public profile detail beyond the supplied ranking, handedness and height was limited. Tennis Canada described him as a 2025 M15 title winner.

Current ranking: #636
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Alex Rybakov

United States

Structured player data lists Rybakov at No. 507, left-handed with a one-handed backhand, and 185 cm. A retirement is listed at the Cary Challenger in late June 2026, but the requested sources do not identify an active issue for Roehampton.

Current ranking: #507
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Rybakov is favored based on superior ranking, recent form, and a prior H2H win, but his odds are too short for value.

Martin's competitiveness suggests the match could be closer than the moneyline implies, making Martin +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games the best betting angles.

Context

Rybakov, ranked 478, is a left-hander with a strong first serve. In his last 15 matches overall, he has won 67.9% of first-serve points and saved 65.2% of break points.
On hard courts in that span, Rybakov has landed 73.6% of first serves and won 67.2% of first-serve points, while Martin has only landed 60.2% and won 66.3%. Rybakov's higher first-serve percentage and better break-point saving should make him harder to break, putting pressure on Martin's weaker return game.
- Rybakov last 15 on hard: 73.6% first serve in, 67.2% first serve points won, 66.7% break points saved.
- Martin last 15 on hard: 60.2% first serve in, 66.3% first serve points won, 56.9% break points saved.
- Rybakov overall last 15: 70.9% first serve in, 67.9% first serve points won, 65.2% break points saved.
Martin, ranked 620, has a 3-14 hard-court record in 2026 and has lost to players ranked as low as 889 in recent weeks.
In his last 15 matches, Martin has won only 20% overall and 11.1% on hard courts. His recent losses include defeats to Aidan Kim (ranked 575) and Zsombor Velcz (ranked 889), indicating a lack of confidence and consistency that Rybakov can exploit.
- Martin last 15 overall: 3-12 record (20% win rate).
- Martin last 15 on hard: 1-8 record (11.1% win rate).
- Recent hard-court losses to Aidan Kim (575) and Zsombor Velcz (889).
Rybakov and Martin met once before, in October 2024 at a Challenger event.
Rybakov won that match 6-3 4-3 after Martin retired. While the retirement limits the value of the result, Rybakov was leading comfortably and the surface is the same, giving him a psychological edge.
- 2024-10-10: Rybakov def. Martin 6-3 4-3 ret. on hard court.
- Rybakov led 6-3 4-3 before Martin retired.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alex Rybakov

1.33fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Rybakov's superior recent overall form, career baseline, and prior H2H win on hard give him a clear edge despite both struggling recently.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alex Rybakov

1.44fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Rybakov's stronger serve metrics and higher first-set conversion rate support him taking the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Rybakov's superior recent form, career baseline, and prior H2H win on hard give him a clear edge despite both struggling recently.
- Rybakov last 15 overall record 7-8 (46.7%) vs Martin 3-12 (20%)
- Rybakov career win pct 58.8% vs Martin 47.9%
- H2H 2024-10-10: Rybakov won 6-3 4-3 ret. on hard
- Rybakov ranking 478 vs Martin 620
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlex RybakovEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, and their similar games-won percentages suggest a competitive match with over 21.5 total games.
- Martin last 15 average duration 114.7 min, Rybakov 126.3 min
- Martin last 15 games won 47.1%, Rybakov 51.7%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Martin's recent matches show he can stay within 3.5 games even in losses, making the +3.5 handicap a reasonable lean.
- Martin last 15 games won 47.1%, Rybakov 51.7%
- Martin's recent losses often by narrow margins (e.g., 6-4 6-3, 7-6 7-6)
- Rybakov's wins often by 4+ games, but Martin's competitiveness keeps it close
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDan Martin +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players often exceed 9.5 games, with tiebreaks occurring frequently.
- Martin last 15 first set average games: 9.3 (from recent scores)
- Rybakov last 15 first set average games: 9.7
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Rybakov's stronger serve metrics and higher first-set conversion rate support him taking the opening set.
- Rybakov first set win conversion career 87% vs Martin 82%
- Rybakov last 15 first serve in 70.9% vs Martin 61.8%
- Rybakov last 15 first serve points won 67.9% vs Martin 66.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlex RybakovEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreaks in recent matches, and their similar serve/return profiles increase the chance of at least one tiebreak.
- Martin career tiebreak win pct 43%, Rybakov 49%
- Martin recent matches include multiple tiebreaks (e.g., vs Shimizu, vs Zhukayev)
- Rybakov recent matches include tiebreaks (vs Zakaria, vs Wu, vs Moriya)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined recent ace rates slightly exceed 8.5, and Rybakov's lefty serve adds ace potential.
- Rybakov last 15 aces per match 5.3, Martin 3.6
- Combined average aces per match 8.9
- Rybakov career aces 1716 in 563 matches (3.05 per match), Martin 579 in 240 (2.41)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages slightly exceed 5.5, making the over a marginal lean.
- Martin last 15 double faults per match 3.2, Rybakov 2.7
- Combined average double faults per match 5.9
- Both players have double fault rates above 2.5 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 4-3 ret.Dan Martin#620vAlex Rybakov#478Oct 10, 2024

1 total meetings

Dan Martin

3W 12L

6-2 6-1#575Aidan Kim

6-0 6-1—Nicholas Gore

6-3 5-7 6-4#189Lautaro Midon

3-6 7-5 4-2 ret.—Mikael Arseneault

6-2 6-2#583Keegan Rice

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#396Yuta Shimizu

6-4 6-3#889Zsombor Velcz

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4#216Braden Shick

2-6 6-4 7-5#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-4 4-6 6-1#586Kaylan Bigun

6-1 7-6(5)#1352Ryan Haviland

6-3 6-3#627Bruno Kuzuhara

6-4 6-3#1576Boris Arias

3-6 6-3 7-6(2)#362Aidan Mayo

7-6(3) 6-7(6) 6-4#469Beibit Zhukayev

Alex Rybakov

7W 8L

5-7 6-4 6-3#861Oliver Bonding

7-5 6-3#237Charles Broom

6-1 7-6(0)#559Fares Zakaria

6-2 3-6 6-1#308Oliver Tarvet

7-5 6-2—Billy Blaydes

6-3 6-3#895Matthew Summers

0-6 6-3 7-6(3)#900Charlie Robertson

3-6 6-4 6-3#184Andre Ilagan

6-4 7-6(8)#370Tung-Lin Wu

7-6(3) 5-2 ret.#518Hiroki Moriya

1-6 6-1 6-2#627Bruno Kuzuhara

6-2 1-6 6-3—Joaquim Almeida

4-6 6-1 6-3—Liam Krall

6-3 6-4#651Ryan Colby

6-7(1) 6-4 6-3#899Justin Roberts

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DMDan MartinMartin

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Alex RybakovRybakovAR

Alex Rybakov carries the stronger recent form — Dan Martin's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In61.8%+9.1pp70.9%

1st Serve Won66.3%+1.6pp67.9%

2nd Serve Won49.6%+1.4pp48.2%

Aces / Match3.6+1.75.3

Double Faults / Match3.20.5 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.7%+4.9pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.1%+7.6pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved58.7%+6.5pp65.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.2%+3.0pp51.2%

Serve · 1–4

61.8%1st Serve In+9.1pp70.9%

66.3%1st Serve Won+1.6pp67.9%

49.6%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp48.2%

3.6Aces / Match+1.75.3

3.2Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

35.7%Return Pts Won+4.9pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

46.1%Break Pts Converted+7.6pp38.5%

58.7%Break Pts Saved+6.5pp65.2%

Points · 0–1

48.2%Total Pts Won+3.0pp51.2%