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Predictions graded

Pavel Kotov #250Russia2Alexis Galarneau #185Canada1

Sets 3-6 · 6-1 · 6-1Fri 11 Sept 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexis Galarneau · 65 places

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #250
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

Canadian, age 27, right-handed and 180 cm. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; his career-high singles ranking was No. 153 in May 2024.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #153 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 03:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Kotov's superior hard-court form and H2H win give him a slight edge over Galarneau, making him a value bet at 2.20.

Expect a competitive match with likely tiebreaks and over 22.5 total games.

Context

Kotov, 27, is ranked 250 and has a career 59% win rate. Galarneau, 27, is ranked 183 and has a career 56% win rate.
Kotov's recent hard-court sample shows a 75% win rate and 77.9% first-serve points won, compared to Galarneau's 60% and 69.8%. This suggests Kotov can control rallies behind his serve, but Galarneau's higher ranking and solid return numbers keep the match competitive.
- Kotov last 15 on hard: 6-2 record, 77.9% first-serve points won.
- Galarneau last 15 on hard: 6-4 record, 69.8% first-serve points won.
- Kotov's overall last 15 record is 8-7; Galarneau's is 9-6.
The two players met once before, in March 2025 on hard court.
Kotov won 4-6 6-2 6-1, hitting 11 aces and winning 75% of first-serve points. Galarneau managed only one ace and 60% first-serve points won. That pattern could repeat, but the sample is small and Galarneau has improved his hard-court results since then.
- H2H: Kotov leads 1-0, winning 4-6 6-2 6-1 on hard court in 2025.
- Kotov had 11 aces to Galarneau's 1 in that match.
- Kotov won 75% of first-serve points; Galarneau won 60%.
Galarneau, the ATP No. 183 right-hander, played a doubles match on 8 September before this quarter-final.
He lost a three-set doubles match on 8 September, adding one extra match to his workload. This is a minor factor and unlikely to affect his singles performance.
- Shanghai doubles first round, 8 September: Galarneau/Maginley lost 7-6(6) 4-6 [11-13].
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 03:17 · Europe/BucharestShanghai Challenger doubles match recordwww.tennis.com · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Kotov's superior hard-court form and direct H2H win give him a slight edge, though Galarneau's ranking is higher.
- Kotov leads H2H 1-0, winning 4-6 6-2 6-1 on hard in March 2025.
- Kotov's last 15 hard-court record is 6-2 (75%), with 61.9% sets won.
- Galarneau's last 15 overall record is 9-6 (60%), but his hard-court record is 6-4 (60%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPavel KotovEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set scores for both players frequently exceed 9.5 games due to tiebreaks and close sets.
- Kotov's recent first sets include multiple tiebreaks (7-6, 7-6, 7-6).
- Galarneau's recent first sets include 7-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-3.
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion, suggesting competitive opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer games, and their tiebreak tendencies increase total games.
- Kotov's last 15 matches average 23.6 games per match (354 games / 15 matches).
- Galarneau's last 15 matches average 23.2 games per match (348 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Kotov 55% career, Galarneau 52% career.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are likely to be competitive, with both players capable of extending games.
- Kotov's recent second sets include 7-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-3.
- Galarneau's recent second sets include 6-4, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.
- Both players have similar second-set game averages around 9-10 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kotov's slight edge in H2H and hard-court form supports a narrow handicap, but the margin is uncertain.
- Kotov's hard-court games won percentage is 52% in last 15, while Galarneau's is 52.6%.
- Kotov's H2H win was by 4 games (16-12).
- Galarneau's recent hard-court matches have been close, with several straight-set wins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPavel Kotov -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's strong first-set conversion and H2H pattern support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Kotov's first-set win conversion is 86% career, and he won the first set in his H2H win.
- Galarneau's first-set win conversion is 86% career, but his recent first sets have been mixed.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPavel KotovEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches makes a tiebreak likely.
- Kotov's last 15 matches include multiple tiebreaks (7-6, 7-6, 7-6).
- Galarneau's last 15 matches include tiebreaks in 5 of 15 matches.
- Both players have career tiebreak win percentages above 50% (Kotov 55%, Galarneau 52%).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's high ace rate on hard courts and Galarneau's consistent ace count push the total over 8.5.
- Kotov averages 5.5 aces per match in last 15, with 7.5 on hard courts.
- Galarneau averages 3.3 aces per match in last 15, with 3.2 on hard courts.
- Combined average aces per match: 8.8 (5.5 + 3.3).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates combine to around 5.5, making over 5.5 a near coin-flip.
- Kotov averages 2.4 double faults per match in last 15, with 2.6 on hard courts.
- Galarneau averages 3.1 double faults per match in last 15, with 2.6 on hard courts.
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.5 (2.4 + 3.1).
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W4-6 6-2 6-1Pavel Kotov#250vAlexis Galarneau#183Mar 17, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Pavel Kotov

8W 7L

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#365Jake Delaney 3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#204Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#335Daniel Elahi Galan

7-5 ret.#662Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-0#707Franco Ribero

6-7(7) 6-4 6-2#83Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-1#213Guy Den Ouden

1-6 6-1 6-2#230Cezar Cretu

6-1 3-6 6-4#158Gauthier Onclin

1-6 6-2 6-3#336Mikhail Kukushkin

7-6(7) 5-2 ret.#131Leandro Riedi

6-1 2-0 ret.#248Yi Zhou

4-6 6-3 6-4#196Harry Wendelken

7-6(9) 3-6 6-3#323Fajing Sun

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3#275Ilia Simakin

Alexis Galarneau

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#817Linang Xiao 7-6(5) 6-4#421Semen Pankin

7-6(3) 6-2#134Dalibor Svrcina

7-6(4) 6-3#193Keegan Smith

6-2 6-3#101Jacob Fearnley

6-4 6-4#102Dino Prizmic

6-4 6-4#69Vit Kopriva

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#96Aleksandar Vukic

6-1 5-7 7-6(2)#330Tyler Zink

6-2 6-1#277Kaichi Uchida

6-7(2) 6-3 6-4#101Jacob Fearnley

6-3 6-2#322Daniel Milavsky

6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#67Adrian Mannarino

4-6 6-4 7-6(4)#379Juan Pablo Ficovich

7-5 6-2#308Oliver Tarvet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PKPavel KotovKotov

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Alexis GalarneauGalarneauAG

Pavel Kotov carries the stronger recent form — Alexis Galarneau's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In62.8%+7.4pp55.4%

1st Serve Won70.8%+1.3pp69.5%

2nd Serve Won50.5%+4.3pp54.8%

Aces / Match5.5+2.23.3

Double Faults / Match2.40.7 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.0%+1.3pp38.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted36.2%+7.7pp43.9%

Break Pts Saved58.6%—58.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.0%—50.6%

Serve · 4–1

62.8%1st Serve In+7.4pp55.4%

70.8%1st Serve Won+1.3pp69.5%

50.5%2nd Serve Won+4.3pp54.8%

5.5Aces / Match+2.23.3

2.4Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

37.0%Return Pts Won+1.3pp38.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

36.2%Break Pts Converted+7.7pp43.9%

58.6%Break Pts Saved—58.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.0%Total Pts Won—50.6%