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Predictions graded

Pavel Kotov #250Russia2Jake Delaney #365Australia0

Sets 7-6 · 7-6Wed 9 Sept 2026, 07:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePavel Kotov · 115 places

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #250
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Jake Delaney

Australia

Delaney, 29, is a right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached his career-best singles ranking of No. 354 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #365
Peak ranking: #354 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Kotov and Delaney are closely matched on hard courts, with Kotov holding a slight edge in serve metrics but Delaney showing comparable recent form and superior break point saving.

The match is likely to be competitive, with value in over 22.5 total games, over 12.5 total aces, and a tiebreak occurring. Avoid betting on the match winner due to poor odds on Kotov.

Context

Delaney, 27, is an Australian ranked 365 who plays almost exclusively on hard courts and has built a 42-20 record on the surface in 2026.
Delaney's recent hard-court sample is strong: 11-4 in his last 15 with a 73.3% win rate, and he has won his last two matches at this tournament. Kotov's overall last-15 record is 8-7, but his hard-court split is 6-2, so the surface gap is narrower than the overall numbers suggest. Still, Delaney's consistency on hard courts and his current run make him the more reliable player in this matchup.
- Delaney is 11-4 in his last 15 matches, all on hard courts.
- Kotov is 8-7 overall in his last 15, but 6-2 on hard courts.
- Delaney has won his last two matches at this tournament, including a three-set win over Hayato Matsuoka.
Kotov, 27, needed a deciding-set tiebreak to beat Elias Ymer on 8 September and now plays again the next day. Delaney, 25, also went three sets but finished his first-round win on 7 September.
Kotov has one overnight between a deciding-set match and this second round, while Delaney has an extra day after his own deciding-set win. That gives Delaney a slightly longer recovery window, which can matter in a best-of-three match where late-set fatigue often decides close games.
- The Shanghai draw records both first-round deciding-set results and places Kotov versus Delaney in the second round.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Sep 2026, 22:11 · Europe/BucharestCanal Tenis — ATP Challenger Shanghai 2026 drawcanaltenis.com · 8 Sep 2026ATP Tour — Shanghai Challenger overviewwww.atptour.com · 8 Sep 2026
Kotov, 27, is a Russian ranked 250 who has a career 58.9% win rate and has been more successful on hard courts than clay in 2026.
Kotov's recent form is split by surface: he went 2-5 on clay with a 28.6% win rate, but 6-2 on hard with a 75% win rate. His last match was a hard-court win over Elias Ymer, and he has won four of his last five hard-court matches. This suggests his poor clay results are not a reliable indicator for this hard-court match.
- Kotov's last-15 clay record is 2-5 (28.6%), while his hard-court record is 6-2 (75%).
- His most recent match was a hard-court win over Elias Ymer.
- He has won four of his last five hard-court matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Pavel Kotov

1.22fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Kotov's slightly stronger serve metrics on hard courts and higher ranking give him a narrow edge, though Delaney's recent form is comparable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Kotov's slightly stronger serve metrics on hard courts and higher ranking give him a narrow edge, though Delaney's recent form is comparable.
- Kotov has a 75% win rate on hard courts in his last 15 matches (6-2), while Delaney has 73.3% (11-4) in the same window.
- Kotov's first-serve points won on hard courts is 77.8% vs Delaney's 75.6% overall.
- Kotov's career hard-court win percentage is 58.9% vs Delaney's 56.6% overall, but Delaney has far more hard-court matches (239 wins).
- Kotov's recent form includes a win over Elias Ymer (rank 204) in the previous round, while Delaney beat Hayato Matsuoka (rank 255).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPavel KotovEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, and their combined average games per match exceeds 22.5.
- Kotov's last 15 matches average 23.4 games per match (351 total games / 15).
- Delaney's last 15 matches average 24.6 games per match (369 total games / 15).
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently, indicating competitive matches.
- Kotov's average match duration is 122.5 minutes, Delaney's is 125.5 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving from both players in the first set increases the likelihood of a tight set with more than 9.5 games.
- Kotov's recent first sets have often been close, with several tiebreaks and 7-5 scores.
- Delaney's last match went to a first-set tiebreak (7-6).
- Both players have first-serve points won above 75%, suggesting fewer breaks early.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's recent hard-court success and higher first-serve points won give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Kotov's first-set win conversion is 86% career, while Delaney's is 88%.
- Kotov has won 6 of his last 8 hard-court matches, often starting strong.
- Delaney lost his last match in straight sets to Koki Matsuda, but won his previous match in three sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPavel KotovEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and their strong serving make a tiebreak likely.
- Kotov has played tiebreaks in 4 of his last 15 matches (26.7%).
- Delaney has played tiebreaks in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 50-54%, indicating close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong servers on hard courts, making a combined total of over 12.5 aces likely.
- Kotov averages 7.9 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Delaney averages 9.0 aces per match overall in his last 15 matches.
- Combined average aces per match is approximately 16.9, well above 12.5.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, suggesting a combined total under 5.5 is plausible.
- Kotov averages 3.0 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Delaney averages 2.3 double faults per match overall in his last 15 matches.
- Combined average double faults is 5.3, slightly under 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The odds heavily favor Kotov, but recent form and surface stats suggest the match is much closer than the price implies.

Previous match context available

Pavel Kotov

8W 7L

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#204Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#335Daniel Elahi Galan

7-5 ret.#662Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-0#707Franco Ribero

6-7(7) 6-4 6-2#83Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-1#213Guy Den Ouden

1-6 6-1 6-2#230Cezar Cretu

6-1 3-6 6-4#158Gauthier Onclin

1-6 6-2 6-3#336Mikhail Kukushkin

7-6(7) 5-2 ret.#131Leandro Riedi

6-1 2-0 ret.#248Yi Zhou

4-6 6-3 6-4#196Harry Wendelken

7-6(9) 3-6 6-3#323Fajing Sun

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3#275Ilia Simakin

6-4 7-6(6)#247August Holmgren

Jake Delaney

11W 4L

2-6 7-6(5) 7-6(6)#255Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#483Koki Matsuda

6-0 6-4#567Hyeon Chung

6-2 6-4#460Moerani Bouzige

6-3 7-6(2)#796Scott Jones

6-2 6-0—Jeremy Zhang

6-4 1-6 6-4#755Joshua Charlton

7-5 6-3#293Matthew Dellavedova

5-7 6-2 6-3—Duje Markovina

7-5 6-3—Taiki Takizawa

6-2 7-6(4)—Zachary Viiala

6-4 7-6(4)#896Daisuke Sumizawa

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(9)#760Matthew Hulme

4-6 6-3 6-4—Benjamin O'Connell

6-2 6-7(5) 7-6(4)#646Chase Ferguson

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PKPavel KotovKotov

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Jake DelaneyDelaneyJD

Jake Delaney carries the stronger recent form — Pavel Kotov's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In62.9%+3.9pp66.8%

1st Serve Won70.8%+4.8pp75.6%

2nd Serve Won48.9%+2.4pp51.3%

Aces / Match5.7+3.39.0

Double Faults / Match2.60.3 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won37.6%+0.9pp36.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted34.9%+2.2pp37.1%

Break Pts Saved60.4%+11.2pp71.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.0%+2.0pp52.0%

Serve · 0–5

62.9%1st Serve In+3.9pp66.8%

70.8%1st Serve Won+4.8pp75.6%

48.9%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp51.3%

5.7Aces / Match+3.39.0

2.6Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

37.6%Return Pts Won+0.9pp36.7%

Pressure · 0–2

34.9%Break Pts Converted+2.2pp37.1%

60.4%Break Pts Saved+11.2pp71.6%

Points · 0–1

50.0%Total Pts Won+2.0pp52.0%

Pavel Kotov

Jake Delaney

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Pavel Kotov

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Pavel Kotov @ 1.22

Pavel Kotov

Jake Delaney

Stat Battle