SwitzerlandWTA MontreuxFinished

Predictions graded

Tessa Johanna Brockmann #337Germany0Clara Burel #411France2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Wed 9 Sept 2026, 13:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTessa Johanna Brockmann · 74 places

Tessa Johanna Brockmann

Germany

Brockmann, 20, reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 254 in May 2026. Her current public profile does not list a playing hand, height, or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #337
Peak ranking: #254 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Clara Burel

France

Reached a career-high No. 42 in June 2024. The WTA profile records an injury-affected 2025 with only one event played; no current-tournament source found it to be active in August 2026.

Current ranking: #411
Peak ranking: #42 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 22:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Clara Burel is favored over Tessa Johanna Brockmann based on superior clay form and return stats, but the odds are too short given Brockmann's recent wins and Burel's loss to Ferro.

Lean over 20.5 total games and over 7.5 double faults, while avoiding the match winner market.

Context

Burel, 25, is a former top-100 player now ranked 416 and rebuilding on clay, where she has won 96 career matches.
Burel's 69.2% clay win rate in her last 13 matches and 51.2% return points won suggest she can pressure Brockmann's serve. Brockmann's 53.3% win rate and 42.7% return points won over 15 matches show a lower baseline, though her recent win over Zidansek shows she can compete.
- Burel last 15 on clay: 9-4 record, 51.2% return points won, 59.6% games won.
- Brockmann last 15 on clay: 8-7 record, 42.7% return points won, 48.9% games won.
- Burel's recent clay wins include opponents ranked 114, 181, and 231; Brockmann's wins include opponents ranked 146, 250, and 332.
Burel, 25, is the higher-ranked player in this matchup and arrives after a deep run at Saint-Palais.
She completed the Saint-Palais final on 6 September and her Montreux first round on 8 September, leaving only one full day before this match. That compact schedule adds travel and match load, but her recent 4-1 record suggests she has managed the workload well so far.
- The Saint-Palais final and Montreux first round were separated by two days, creating a compact cross-event schedule on the same clay swing.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Sep 2026, 22:23 · Europe/BucharestTennis. WTA - Montreux - Fiona Ferro et Clara Burel enchaînent bien en Suissewww.tennisactu.net · 6 Sep 2026
Brockmann, 23, is ranked 337 and has a career double fault rate of 668 in 205 matches.
Her 5 double faults per match in the last 15 matches is high and gives Burel, who converts 51.3% of break points, extra opportunities. Burel's return points won of 49.7% overall suggests she can capitalize on second serves.
- Brockmann last 15: 5 double faults per match, 75 total double faults.
- Burel last 15: 51.3% break points converted, 49.7% return points won.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Clara Burel

1.10fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Burel's stronger recent clay form and return/break-point profile give her a clear edge over Brockmann.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Clara Burel

1.18fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Burel's superior recent set-winning rate and strong first-set conversion support her taking the opener.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Burel's stronger recent clay form and return/break-point profile give her a clear edge over Brockmann.
- Burel last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Brockmann 8-7 (53.3%)
- Burel clay last 13 record 9-4 (69.2%) vs Brockmann clay last 15 8-7 (53.3%)
- Burel return points won 49.7% overall / 51.2% clay vs Brockmann 42.7% overall / 42.7% clay
- Burel break points saved 62.0% overall / 62.7% clay vs Brockmann 54.5% overall / 54.5% clay
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClara BurelEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 20 games, and Brockmann's competitiveness suggests a longer contest.
- Brockmann average match duration 110.6 min, Burel 104.7 min
- Brockmann games won 48.9% overall, Burel 58.4% overall
- Burel clay games won 59.6%, Brockmann clay 48.9%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid serve and return numbers, suggesting a competitive first set with at least nine games.
- Brockmann first serve points won 64.4%, Burel 61.7%
- Burel return points won 49.7% overall, 51.2% clay
- Brockmann break points saved 54.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Break-point conversion rates on both sides indicate potential for extended games in the second set.
- Brockmann second serve points won 43.9%, Burel 47.9%
- Burel break points converted 51.3% overall, 51.4% clay
- Brockmann break points converted 44.2%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Burel's superior recent set-winning rate and strong first-set conversion support her taking the opener.
- Burel first set win conversion 83% career vs Brockmann 86% career
- Burel last 15 sets won 65.7% vs Brockmann 48.6%
- Burel clay sets won 67.7% vs Brockmann 48.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClara BurelEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 2.5 aces per match, making under 4.5 total aces likely.
- Brockmann aces per match 2.4, Burel 1.5
- Burel clay aces per match 1.5
- Combined average aces per match 3.9
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brockmann's high double-fault rate combined with Burel's moderate rate pushes the total over 7.5.
- Brockmann double faults per match 5.0, Burel 2.9
- Brockmann clay double faults per match 5.0
- Burel clay double faults per match 2.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burel's set dominance reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak, though Brockmann's competitiveness keeps it possible.
- Brockmann tiebreak win pct 60% career, Burel 55% career
- Burel last 15 sets won 65.7% vs Brockmann 48.6%
- Burel clay sets won 67.7%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price on Burel is a trap; her recent form does not justify such a short price.

Previous match context available

Tessa Johanna Brockmann

8W 7L

4-6 7-6(4) 6-3#146Tamara Zidansek

6-3 6-1#331Joelle Steur

6-2 6-3#411Jule Niemeier

6-2 4-6 6-3#331Joelle Steur

6-2 6-4#522Daria Yesypchuk

6-3 6-3#849Arina Gabriela Vasilescu

6-2 6-3#464Marie Vogt

6-2 6-1#582Laima Vladson

6-1 6-4#141Fiona Ferro

6-4 2-6 6-4#332Sohyun Park

6-2 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#250Samira De Stefano

7-5 6-1#114Elsa Jacquemot

7-5 6-2#235Irene Burillo

6-1 6-3—Victoria Brand

4-6 6-0 6-1#405Tena Lukas

Clara Burel

10W 5L

6-1 6-4#394Katerina Tsygourova

2-6 6-3 7-5#141Fiona Ferro

6-4 7-6(4)#274Federica Urgesi

6-0 6-3#538Emma Lene

7-5 6-2#231Justina Mikulskyte

6-2 6-0#542Sarah Van Emst

6-1 7-5#121Qinwen Zheng

6-4 6-2#178Yexin Ma

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#219Alevtina Ibragimova

6-2 6-1#565Anastasia Abbagnato

6-4 7-5#46Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-1#114Elsa Jacquemot

2-6 7-5 6-3#181Varvara Lepchenko

6-3 4-6 6-3#301Alicia Herrero Linana

6-7(3) 6-0 6-2#77Petra Marcinko

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TBTessa Johanna BrockmannBrockmann

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Clara BurelBurelCB

Clara Burel carries the stronger recent form — Tessa Johanna Brockmann's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.4%—58.5%

1st Serve Won64.4%+2.7pp61.7%

2nd Serve Won43.9%+4.0pp47.9%

Aces / Match2.4+0.91.5

Double Faults / Match5.02.1 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.7%+7.0pp49.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted44.2%+7.1pp51.3%

Break Pts Saved54.5%+7.5pp62.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.4%+3.4pp52.8%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.4%1st Serve In—58.5%

64.4%1st Serve Won+2.7pp61.7%

43.9%2nd Serve Won+4.0pp47.9%

2.4Aces / Match+0.91.5

5.0Double Faults / Match2.1 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

42.7%Return Pts Won+7.0pp49.7%

Pressure · 0–2

44.2%Break Pts Converted+7.1pp51.3%

54.5%Break Pts Saved+7.5pp62.0%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won+3.4pp52.8%

Tessa Johanna Brockmann

Clara Burel

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Clara Burel

Clara Burel

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Clara Burel @ 1.10

Tessa Johanna Brockmann

Clara Burel

Stat Battle