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Predictions graded

Petr Bar Biryukov #285Russia1Denis Yevseyev #439Kazakhstan2

Sets 6-7 · 7-6 · 2-6Tue 8 Sept 2026, 11:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePetr Bar Biryukov · 154 places

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Born 28 February 2002, Bar Biryukov is a left-handed player with a two-handed backhand. Public results data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 267 on 27 October 2025; no reliable stated preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #285
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Denis Yevseyev

Kazakhstan

Reached a career-high No. 153 on 22 July 2024. He is currently No. 439; no reliably sourced preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #439
Peak ranking: #153 · 2024
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 15:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Biryukov's superior hard-court form and dominant serve make him the likely winner, but Yevseyev's competitiveness and the close H2H suggest value in the over 21.5 total games and over 8.5 aces markets.

The match winner odds are near fair value, so avoid that market.

Context

Biryukov, 288th, is a left-hander with a big serve and has played most of his recent tennis on hard courts.
His 66.7% win rate on hard courts in the last 15 matches contrasts with Yevseyev's 40% over a smaller sample. Biryukov also holds a clear edge in first-serve points won (76.2% vs 64.4%) and aces per match (10.1 vs 3.0), which should give him more control on this surface.
- Biryukov last 15 on hard: 6-3 record, 76.2% first-serve points won, 10.1 aces per match.
- Yevseyev last 15 on hard: 2-3 record, 64.4% first-serve points won, 3.0 aces per match.
The two players met once before, at a Challenger event in 2024.
Biryukov won 6-4 3-6 6-3, and his serve was the difference: he hit 14 aces to Yevseyev's 1 and won 79% of first-serve points. That pattern could repeat on this hard court.
- H2H: Biryukov defeated Yevseyev 6-4 3-6 6-3 on hard court in 2024.
- Biryukov served 14 aces and won 79% of first-serve points in that match.
Denis Yevseyev, ranked No. 444, is the away player in this Shanghai Challenger first-round match against Petr Bar Biryukov.
Yevseyev completed his final qualifying round on 7 September, one day before this match, so he enters with less rest than Bar Biryukov, who did not play qualifying. This scheduling gap may affect his freshness early in the match, but it is not confirmed as a fitness issue.
- The 7 September qualifying result was 6-2, 6-4 over Hanyi Liu.
- The match is scheduled in the first round of the hard-court Shanghai Challenger on 8 September.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ReportedSources checked 8 Sep 2026, 15:25 · Europe/BucharestDenis Yevseyev vs Hanyi Liu · Qualifying Round 2www.tennis.com · 7 Sep 2026Bar Biryukov - Yevseyevwww.tennisexplorer.com · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Petr Bar Biryukov

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Biryukov's stronger recent hard-court record and prior H2H win give him a slight edge, but the odds are close to fair value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Biryukov's stronger recent form, hard-court edge, and prior H2H win make him the likely winner.
- Last 15 overall record: Biryukov 9-6 (60%) vs Yevseyev 6-9 (40%)
- Last 15 on hard: Biryukov 6-3 (66.7%) vs Yevseyev 2-3 (40%)
- H2H: Biryukov won their only meeting 6-4 3-6 6-3 on hard in Oct 2024
- Biryukov holds 14 aces in H2H vs Yevseyev's 1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPetr Bar BiryukovEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yevseyev's competitive game percentage and the close H2H suggest he can stay within 3.5 games.
- Biryukov last 15 games won pct: 52.2%
- Yevseyev last 15 games won pct: 45.9%
- H2H margin was 3 games (Biryukov won 15-12)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDenis Yevseyev +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 21 games, and their H2H went to 28 games, suggesting a competitive total.
- Biryukov last 15 average games per match: 21.3
- Yevseyev last 15 average games per match: 22.2
- H2H match had 28 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average close to 10 games, making over 9.5 plausible.
- Biryukov last 15 first-set average games: 9.9
- Yevseyev last 15 first-set average games: 9.7
- H2H first set had 10 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's superior first-serve effectiveness and strong first-set conversion rate support taking the opener.
- Biryukov first-set win conversion career: 85%
- Yevseyev first-set win conversion career: 83%
- Biryukov last 15 first serve points won: 76% vs Yevseyev 64.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPetr Bar BiryukovEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's high ace rate alone should push the combined total over 8.5.
- Biryukov last 15 aces per match: 9.6
- Yevseyev last 15 aces per match: 2.2
- H2H: Biryukov hit 14 aces, Yevseyev 1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's high double-fault rate makes over 5.5 likely, though Yevseyev's low rate adds uncertainty.
- Biryukov last 15 double faults per match: 5.1
- Yevseyev last 15 double faults per match: 1.5
- H2H: Biryukov had 8 double faults, Yevseyev 1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Petr Bar Biryukov has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Petr Bar Biryukov has fulfilled 3 of 5 recent win projections. The two misses were both losses, with no draws or wins in those matches. The current probability of 62% sits within the historical range of 62–65%, and the average estimated probability for fulfilled predictions (64%) is slightly higher than for missed ones (62%).

Recent evidence for Petr Bar Biryukov5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#285Petr Bar Biryukov0-2#541Luca Staeheli

BetBugsPetr Bar Biryukov to win·62%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#285Petr Bar Biryukov0-2#541Luca Staeheli

Petr Bar Biryukov to win

62%probability

Luca Staeheli won

Missed

20 Jun·ATP Mallorca

#300Antoine Ghibaudo2-0#274Petr Bar Biryukov

BetBugsPetr Bar Biryukov to win·62%

Missed

20 Jun 2026

ATP Mallorca

#300Antoine Ghibaudo2-0#274Petr Bar Biryukov

Petr Bar Biryukov to win

62%probability

Antoine Ghibaudo won

Missed

21 May·Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong1-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

BetBugsPetr Bar Biryukov to win·65%

Matched

21 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong1-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

Petr Bar Biryukov to win

65%probability

Petr Bar Biryukov won

Matched

20 May·Bengaluru - India

#651Leo Vithoontien0-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

BetBugsPetr Bar Biryukov to win·65%

Matched

20 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

#651Leo Vithoontien0-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

Petr Bar Biryukov to win

65%probability

Petr Bar Biryukov won

Matched

19 May·Bengaluru - India

—Christopher Papa0-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

BetBugsPetr Bar Biryukov to win·62%

Matched

19 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

—Christopher Papa0-2#335Petr Bar Biryukov

Petr Bar Biryukov to win

62%probability

Petr Bar Biryukov won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 3-6 6-3Petr Bar Biryukov#288vDenis Yevseyev#444Oct 9, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Petr Bar Biryukov

9W 6L

7-6(3) 6-3#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#867Qian Sun

7-5 6-3#539Kokoro Isomura

7-6(3) 6-4#845Tianhui Zhang

6-4 6-7(6) 6-4—James Van Herzeele

6-4 6-4—Zhiheng Xia

6-4 6-2#454Jie Cui

6-2 6-3#768Taisei Ichikawa

7-6(4) 0-1 ret.#591Paul Inchauspe

3-6 6-2 6-4#733Grigory Shebekin

7-6(1) 6-2—Damir Zhalgasbay

6-2 7-5#540Shunsuke Mitsui

7-6(3) 7-6(5)—Andrei Kunitsyn

6-2 6-4#895Saveliy Ivanov

7-5 6-3#446Luca Staeheli

Denis Yevseyev

6W 9L

6-2 6-4#899Hanyi Liu 6-1 6-2#275Ilia Simakin

6-3 7-6(3)#592Svyatoslav Gulin

6-2 6-3#685Mirza Basic

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-4—Jannik Maute

6-3 6-4#753Matteo Covato

6-3 6-1#254Matej Dodig

7-5 7-5#578Saba Purtseladze

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5—Noel Larwig

6-4 4-6 6-1#305Yanki Erel

4-6 6-3 6-3#407Vadym Ursu

6-7(5) 6-1 6-3#633Tuncay Duran

6-2 6-3#273Dominic Stricker

6-3 6-0#213Guy Den Ouden

6-3 6-0#541Gerard Campana Lee

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PBPetr Bar BiryukovBiryukov

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Denis YevseyevYevseyevDY

Petr Bar Biryukov carries the stronger recent form — Denis Yevseyev's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In54.5%+22.0pp76.5%

1st Serve Won76.0%+11.9pp64.1%

2nd Serve Won51.6%+7.5pp44.1%

Aces / Match9.6+7.42.2

Double Faults / Match5.13.6 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.9%+2.9pp37.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted41.1%+4.5pp36.6%

Break Pts Saved61.5%+13.7pp47.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.4%+2.2pp48.2%

Serve · 3–2

54.5%1st Serve In+22.0pp76.5%

76.0%1st Serve Won+11.9pp64.1%

51.6%2nd Serve Won+7.5pp44.1%

9.6Aces / Match+7.42.2

5.1Double Faults / Match3.6 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

34.9%Return Pts Won+2.9pp37.8%

Pressure · 2–0

41.1%Break Pts Converted+4.5pp36.6%

61.5%Break Pts Saved+13.7pp47.8%

Points · 1–0

50.4%Total Pts Won+2.2pp48.2%