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Predictions graded

Denis Yevseyev #439Kazakhstan2Hanyi Liu #899China0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Mon 7 Sept 2026, 07:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDenis Yevseyev · 460 places

Denis Yevseyev

Kazakhstan

Reached a career-high No. 153 on 22 July 2024. He is currently No. 439; no reliably sourced preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #439
Peak ranking: #153 · 2024
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Hanyi Liu

China

Liu, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 719, reached in April 2024.

Current ranking: #899
Peak ranking: #719 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 22:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Hanyi Liu is in strong form, especially on hard courts, while Denis Yevseyev has struggled recently.

Liu is a significant value at 3.00 odds, with a model probability of 62% versus the implied 33.3%. Expect a straight-set win for Liu, likely under 21.5 total games.

Context

Liu, 899th, has been competing mainly on hard courts and has a 13-6 record on that surface in 2026. Yevseyev, 444th, has a 5-5 hard-court record this year but has been less consistent overall.
Liu's recent results include wins over players ranked near 300, while Yevseyev has lost to opponents ranked outside the top 500. This suggests Liu enters with more confidence, though Yevseyev's higher ranking and experience could still matter in a best-of-three qualifying match.
- Liu's last 15 record: 10-5 (66.7% win rate).
- Yevseyev's last 15 record: 6-9 (40% win rate).
- Liu beat Kaichi Uchida (ranked 277) in his last tournament; Yevseyev lost to Ilia Simakin (ranked 275) in his most recent match.
Liu's return points won percentage on hard courts is 45.3%, while Yevseyev's is 39% in a smaller sample of four matches.
If Liu can pressure Yevseyev's serve, he may create more break opportunities. Yevseyev's first-serve percentage is higher (71.9% vs 68.8%), but Liu's superior return numbers could neutralize that edge.
- Liu hard-court return points won: 45.3% (10 matches).
- Yevseyev hard-court return points won: 39% (4 matches).
- Yevseyev's hard-court sample is small, so his true level may be closer to his overall 38%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Liu's recent hard-court form and superior return/break profile give him a clear edge over Yevseyev's poor recent results.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), games won 57.5%
- Hanyi Liu last 15 on hard 7-3 (70%), games won 57.9%
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 overall record 6-9 (40%), games won 45.9%
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 on hard 1-3 (25%), games won 44.4%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHanyi LiuEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's dominant recent wins and Yevseyev's poor form suggest a relatively short match.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 average games per match 18.3 (275/15)
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 average games per match 22.2 (333/15)
- Hanyi Liu recent wins often by wide margins (6-0 6-1, 6-1 6-1)
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's ability to dominate early sets points to a low-scoring first set.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 first set average games 8.9
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 first set average games 9.5
- Hanyi Liu has multiple 6-0 or 6-1 first sets in recent form
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's dominant wins suggest he can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 average games won margin +3.2
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 average games lost margin -2.0
- Hanyi Liu recent wins by 6-0 6-1, 6-1 6-1
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostHanyi Liu -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's strong first-set conversion and recent set dominance make him likely to start fast.
- Hanyi Liu first set win conversion career 87%
- Hanyi Liu last 15 sets won 66.7%
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 sets won 42.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHanyi LiuEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches often end in straight sets, favoring a 2-0 result.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 straight-set wins: 8 of 10 wins
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 straight-set losses: 7 of 9 losses
- Hanyi Liu sets won 66.7% in last 15
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's dominance and Yevseyev's struggles make a straight-set win the most likely exact score.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 straight-set wins: 8 of 10
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 straight-set losses: 7 of 9
- Hanyi Liu hard-court record 7-3 in last 15
BetBugs · Set BettinglostHanyi Liu 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both players rarely feature tiebreaks, suggesting a straight-set match without one.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 tiebreaks played: 1
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 tiebreaks played: 3
- Hanyi Liu career tiebreak win percentage 48%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, so total aces should stay low.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 aces per match 2.3
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 aces per match 1.8
- Combined average aces per match 4.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 1.5 double faults per match, making over 3.5 plausible.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 double faults per match 1.8
- Denis Yevseyev last 15 double faults per match 1.5
- Combined average double faults per match 3.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Denis Yevseyev

6W 9L

6-1 6-2#275Ilia Simakin

6-3 7-6(3)#592Svyatoslav Gulin

6-2 6-3#685Mirza Basic

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-4—Jannik Maute

6-3 6-4#753Matteo Covato

6-3 6-1#254Matej Dodig

7-5 7-5#578Saba Purtseladze

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5—Noel Larwig

6-4 4-6 6-1#305Yanki Erel

4-6 6-3 6-3#407Vadym Ursu

6-7(5) 6-1 6-3#633Tuncay Duran

6-2 6-3#273Dominic Stricker

6-3 6-0#213Guy Den Ouden

6-3 6-0#541Gerard Campana Lee

6-2 6-4—Leonardo Borrelli

Hanyi Liu

10W 5L

6-0 6-1#1909Ren Nakamura 6-0 7-5#323Fajing Sun 3-6 6-3 6-2#277Kaichi Uchida

6-3 6-2#646Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-1—Xing Dao Chen

4-6 6-3 7-5#854Hoyoung Roh

6-2 6-1—Jia Hu

6-1 6-1—Kosuke Shibano

6-2 6-4#1581Zhao Zhao

6-4 6-3#663Yuta Kawahashi

4-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#539Kokoro Isomura

6-1 6-1—Artem Alekseychuk

7-5 6-2#646Chase Ferguson

6-1 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 7-6(3)#893Yaojie Zeng

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DYDenis YevseyevYevseyev

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Hanyi LiuLiuHL

Hanyi Liu carries the stronger recent form — Denis Yevseyev's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In77.4%+11.6pp65.8%

1st Serve Won63.7%+3.8pp67.5%

2nd Serve Won42.9%+6.4pp49.3%

Aces / Match1.8+0.52.3

Double Faults / Match1.50.3 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.0%+7.7pp45.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.4%+10.5pp47.9%

Break Pts Saved50.5%+15.5pp66.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.2%+5.2pp53.4%

Serve · 2–3

77.4%1st Serve In+11.6pp65.8%

63.7%1st Serve Won+3.8pp67.5%

42.9%2nd Serve Won+6.4pp49.3%

1.8Aces / Match+0.52.3

1.5Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

38.0%Return Pts Won+7.7pp45.7%

Pressure · 0–2

37.4%Break Pts Converted+10.5pp47.9%

50.5%Break Pts Saved+15.5pp66.0%

Points · 0–1

48.2%Total Pts Won+5.2pp53.4%