FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Matteo Covato #742Italy0Leo Raquillet #665France2

Sets 2-6 · 2-6Sun 6 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLeo Raquillet · 77 places

Matteo Covato

Italy

Covato, 21, is a right-hander listed at 203 cm. His recorded singles peak is No. 696 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #742
Peak ranking: #696 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 203 cm

Leo Raquillet

France

Raquillet is a 20-year-old French right-hander. His ATP career high of No. 634 was recorded in May 2026; available results show more 2026 wins on hard courts than clay, but this is not sufficient to label a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #665
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Raquillet is the clear favorite based on recent form and return stats, but the odds are too short to back him outright.

Covato's poor form (1-14 last 15) makes Raquillet likely to win, but the value is in the over 21.5 total games and over 2.5 sets, as Raquillet's matches tend to be longer. Avoid the match winner and set 1 winner markets due to negative edge.

Context

Covato, 23, is ranked 753 and has a career win rate of 35.3%. He is right-handed with a two-handed backhand and stands 203 cm tall.
His last 15 matches show only one win, and he has lost his last five in a row. His first serve points won is 61.5% and return points won is 31.7%, both below tour average. This suggests he will struggle to hold serve and create break chances against Raquillet.
- Covato's last 15 record is 1-14, with his only win coming on May 5, 2026.
- In his last five matches, he lost to opponents ranked 563, 547, 444, unranked, and 1138.
- His last 15 first serve points won is 61.5% and return points won is 31.7%.
Raquillet, 22, is ranked 662 and has a career win rate of 49%. He is right-handed with a two-handed backhand and stands 191 cm tall.
Raquillet's last 15 record is 6-9, but his return points won is 42.1% compared to Covato's 31.7%. He also converts break points at 51.6% versus Covato's 27.9%. This gives him a clear edge in return games and break point opportunities.
- Raquillet's last 15 record is 6-9, with wins over opponents ranked 707, 867, 381, and 250.
- His return points won is 42.1% and break point conversion is 51.6% in the last 15 matches.
- Covato's return points won is 31.7% and break point conversion is 27.9% in the same window.
Covato's career surface record shows 15 hard court wins and 34 clay wins, indicating a preference for clay.
In his last 15 matches, Covato is 0-4 on hard courts with a games won percentage of 39%. Raquillet has a 15-7 hard court record in 2026. This surface disadvantage could make it even harder for Covato to compete.
- Covato's last 15 hard court record is 0-4, with games won at 39%.
- Raquillet's 2026 hard court record is 15-7.
- Covato's career hard court win percentage is 15 wins in 38 matches (39.5%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Leo Raquillet

1.08fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Raquillet has a clear edge in recent form and return/break-point performance, while Covato has lost 14 of his last 15 matches.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Leo Raquillet

1.15fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Raquillet's superior overall point-winning rate and Covato's poor recent starts make Raquillet the likely first-set winner.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Raquillet has a clear edge in recent form and return/break-point performance, while Covato has lost 14 of his last 15 matches.
- Last 15 overall record: Raquillet 6-9 (40%) vs Covato 1-14 (6.7%)
- Last 15 return points won: Raquillet 42.1% vs Covato 31.7%
- Last 15 break point conversion: Raquillet 51.6% vs Covato 27.9%
- Career win percentage: Raquillet 49% vs Covato 35.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLeo RaquilletEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Covato's poor form, Raquillet's matches tend to be longer, and the total games line is low enough to favor the over.
- Covato last 15 average games per match: 20.7 (119 games in 15 matches)
- Raquillet last 15 average games per match: 23.9 (179 games in 15 matches)
- Combined average games per match: 44.6, but Bo3 matches often exceed 21.5 when competitive
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Raquillet's average game margin over Covato is just above the handicap line, making this a borderline play.
- Raquillet last 15 average games won per match: 11.9
- Covato last 15 average games won per match: 7.9
- Average game differential: 4.0 in favor of Raquillet
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLeo Raquillet -3.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive enough to exceed 9.5 games, though the margin is thin.
- Covato last 15 first set average games: 9.3
- Raquillet last 15 first set average games: 9.7
- Combined first set average games: 9.5
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Raquillet's superior overall point-winning rate and Covato's poor recent starts make Raquillet the likely first-set winner.
- Raquillet first set win conversion career: 85% vs Covato 80%
- Raquillet last 15 total points won: 49.7% vs Covato 44.2%
- Covato has lost the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLeo RaquilletEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players having mediocre tiebreak records and the match likely to be one-sided, a tiebreak is less likely.
- Covato career tiebreak win percentage: 45%
- Raquillet career tiebreak win percentage: 47%
- Neither player has a strong tiebreak record, and tiebreaks are less common in Bo3 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Covato's serve generates aces, and the combined average is just above the line, making the over a coin-flip.
- Covato last 15 aces per match: 4.1
- Raquillet last 15 aces per match: 1.7
- Combined average aces per match: 5.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average enough double faults to push the total near the line, making the over a marginal play.
- Covato last 15 double faults per match: 2.5
- Raquillet last 15 double faults per match: 3.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The quoted price for Raquillet to win set 1 is far too short relative to his recent form and surface-specific evidence.

Previous match context available

Matteo Covato

1W 14L

7-5 3-6 6-3#563Fausto Tabacco

6-4 6-4#547Luca Wiedenmann

6-3 6-4#444Denis Yevseyev

6-7(4) 6-1 6-4—Adrien Berrut

6-3 6-4#1138Joshua Peck

6-3 6-3—Oliver Sanders

6-1 6-3#898Jesse Delaney

6-1 6-4#1731Justin Schlageter

6-4 3-6 6-1—Noah Karma

6-4 6-3#186Jan Kumstat

6-2 6-2—Richard Antoni

1-6 7-6(1) 6-4#1466Dylan Salton

6-3 6-0—Stefan Storch

6-1 6-1#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

6-3 7-6(3)—Jody Maginley

Leo Raquillet

6W 9L

6-3 4-6 6-4—Lenny Couturier

6-0 6-2—Matis Roche

6-3 2-6 7-5#419Benjamin Hassan

4-6 6-3 6-0—Adrien Berrut

3-6 6-0 7-5#824Oskari Paldanius

3-6 6-3 6-4#392Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(2) 6-4#186Jan Kumstat

6-3 4-6 6-2#201Lorenzo Giustino

3-6 6-4 6-3#707Franco Ribero

6-2 6-1#867Tomohiro Masabayashi

6-1 3-6 7-5#341Marko Topo

6-4 6-2#233Kilian Feldbausch

7-5 ret.#250Pavel Kotov

7-5 2-6 6-3#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-4 3-6 6-2#592Svyatoslav Gulin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MCMatteo CovatoCovato

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Leo RaquilletRaquilletLR

Leo Raquillet carries the stronger recent form — Matteo Covato's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In67.4%+3.0pp64.4%

1st Serve Won61.5%+1.5pp63.0%

2nd Serve Won44.4%+1.7pp46.1%

Aces / Match4.1+2.41.7

Double Faults / Match2.50.6 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won31.7%+10.4pp42.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted27.9%+23.7pp51.6%

Break Pts Saved56.5%+5.0pp51.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won44.2%+5.5pp49.7%

Serve · 3–2

67.4%1st Serve In+3.0pp64.4%

61.5%1st Serve Won+1.5pp63.0%

44.4%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp46.1%

4.1Aces / Match+2.41.7

2.5Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

31.7%Return Pts Won+10.4pp42.1%

Pressure · 1–1

27.9%Break Pts Converted+23.7pp51.6%

56.5%Break Pts Saved+5.0pp51.5%

Points · 0–1

44.2%Total Pts Won+5.5pp49.7%

Matteo Covato

Leo Raquillet

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Leo Raquillet

Leo Raquillet

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Leo Raquillet @ 1.15

Matteo Covato

Leo Raquillet

Stat Battle