AustriaTulln - AustriaRET

Predictions graded

Maxim Mrva #317Czechia0Marvin Moeller #319Germany1

Sets 2-5Mon 7 Sept 2026, 12:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions0–40%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaxim Mrva · 2 places

Maxim Mrva

Czechia

Born on 2 August 2007, he turned 19 during Hagen qualifying. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 271 on 16 March 2026.

Current ranking: #317
Peak ranking: #271 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Marvin Moeller

Germany

Moeller reached a career-high No. 287 on 27 May 2024 and is No. 319 in the supplied current data. He is a 27-year-old right-hander from Hamburg.

Current ranking: #319
Peak ranking: #287 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 16:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Mrva's superior return game and slightly better clay metrics give him a narrow edge over Moeller, but the odds overstate his advantage.

The match is likely to be close and exceed 21.5 total games, with Mrva +1.5 games offering value.

Context

Mrva, 20, is ranked 212 and has built his record on clay, while Moeller, 27, is ranked 278 and has a career clay win percentage above 60%.
Their last-15 clay samples are nearly identical: both are 11-4, with Mrva winning 52.3% of total points and Moeller 51.5%. Mrva has been slightly better on return (45.4% vs 41.3%), but Moeller has been more effective on first serve (70.5% vs 66.3%) and saves break points at a higher rate (63.5% vs 55.9%). This suggests a close match where neither player has a decisive recent form advantage.
- Mrva last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 52.3% total points won, 45.4% return points won.
- Moeller last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 51.5% total points won, 41.3% return points won.
- Mrva first serve points won 66.3%, break points saved 55.9%.
- Moeller first serve points won 70.5%, break points saved 63.5%.
Moeller, 27, has a career first-serve win rate of 67% and has played over 400 professional matches.
In his last 15 clay matches, Moeller has won 70.5% of first-serve points and saved 63.5% of break points, compared to Mrva's 66.3% and 55.9%. Moeller also commits fewer double faults per match (1.9 vs 3.9). This could give him an edge in tight service games, though Mrva's stronger return numbers may offset that advantage.
- Moeller first serve points won 70.5% vs Mrva 66.3%.
- Moeller break points saved 63.5% vs Mrva 55.9%.
- Moeller double faults per match 1.9 vs Mrva 3.9.
Mrva, 20, has a career return points won percentage of 44% and has been in strong clay form over the past month.
Mrva has won 45.4% of return points in his last 15 clay matches, while Moeller has won only 41.3%. Moeller's second serve points won is 50.1%, slightly above Mrva's 50.0%, but Mrva's ability to attack returns could create break opportunities. However, Moeller's higher break point save rate suggests he may be able to escape trouble.
- Mrva return points won 45.4% vs Moeller 41.3%.
- Moeller second serve points won 50.1% vs Mrva 50.0%.
- Moeller break points saved 63.5% vs Mrva 55.9%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Maxim Mrva

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Mrva's stronger return game and slightly better recent clay metrics give him a narrow edge, but the odds overstate his advantage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Mrva's stronger return game and slightly better recent clay metrics give him a narrow edge in this Bo3 clay matchup.
- Mrva last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 56.1% games won, 52.3% total points won
- Moeller last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 54.0% games won, 51.5% total points won
- Mrva return points won 45.4% vs Moeller 41.3% in last 15
- Mrva ranking 212 vs Moeller 278
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaxim MrvaEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches and Moeller's higher average game count supports a longer contest.
- Mrva last 15 average 20.3 games per match
- Moeller last 15 average 23.3 games per match
- Moeller has played 3 three-set matches in last 15, Mrva 4
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mrva's stronger return game and recent form make him likely to keep the match close or win outright, covering +1.5 games.
- Mrva last 15 games won 56.1% vs Moeller 54.0%
- Mrva return points won 45.4% vs Moeller 41.3%
- Mrva has won 7 of last 10 matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMaxim Mrva +1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average near or above 9.5 games, with Moeller's tiebreak tendency adding upside.
- Mrva last 15 first set average 9.3 games
- Moeller last 15 first set average 9.7 games
- Moeller has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moeller's second sets have been longer on average, and both players have shown ability to extend sets.
- Mrva last 15 second set average 9.1 games
- Moeller last 15 second set average 9.9 games
- Moeller has played 3 tiebreaks in second sets in last 15
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have strong first-set conversion rates, but Mrva's return edge may help him edge the opener.
- Mrva first set win conversion career 87%
- Moeller first set win conversion career 89%
- Mrva last 15 first serve points won 66.3% vs Moeller 70.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaxim MrvaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mrva's high double fault rate drives the combined average above the line, making over 5.5 likely.
- Mrva last 15 double faults per match 3.9
- Moeller last 15 double faults per match 1.9
- Combined average 5.8 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages slightly exceed the line, though both players are not big servers.
- Mrva last 15 aces per match 3.5
- Moeller last 15 aces per match 3.3
- Combined average 6.8 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Maxim Mrva has been unreliable when projected to win

Maxim Mrva has fulfilled 2 of 5 recent win predictions, a 40% success rate. The expected number of fulfilled predictions based on average estimated probability was 2.9, indicating underperformance. All three missed predictions resulted in losses, with no draws or wins.

Recent evidence for Maxim Mrva5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#185Joel Schwaerzler2-0#303Maxim Mrva

BetBugsMaxim Mrva to win·58%

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#185Joel Schwaerzler2-0#303Maxim Mrva

Maxim Mrva to win

58%probability

Joel Schwaerzler won

14 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#310Maxim Mrva2-1#378Carlo Alberto Caniato

BetBugsMaxim Mrva to win·58%

14 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#310Maxim Mrva2-1#378Carlo Alberto Caniato

Maxim Mrva to win

58%probability

Maxim Mrva won

9 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#295Maxim Mrva0-2#363Federico Bondioli

BetBugsMaxim Mrva to win·58%

9 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#295Maxim Mrva0-2#363Federico Bondioli

Maxim Mrva to win

58%probability

Federico Bondioli won

7 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#295Maxim Mrva2-1#355Gonzalo Villanueva

BetBugsMaxim Mrva to win·58%

7 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#295Maxim Mrva2-1#355Gonzalo Villanueva

Maxim Mrva to win

58%probability

Maxim Mrva won

11 May·Tunis - Tunisia

#312Maxim Mrva1-2#225Federico Cina

BetBugsMaxim Mrva to win·55%

11 May 2026

Tunis - Tunisia

#312Maxim Mrva1-2#225Federico Cina

Maxim Mrva to win

55%probability

Federico Cina won

Previous match context available

Maxim Mrva

11W 4L

6-4 6-4#643Federico Iannaccone 7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#411Oleg Prihodko

6-1 7-5#186Jan Kumstat

6-1 6-2#230Cezar Cretu

2-6 6-2 6-4#439Nerman Fatic

6-2 6-2#329Nicolas Kicker

6-3 6-2#235Alex Barrena

6-2 4-2 ret.#169Federico Agustin Gomez

3-6 6-4 6-4#220Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-4 1-6 7-5#562Pierluigi Basile

6-4 6-2#213Guy Den Ouden

6-3 6-3#458Rudolf Molleker

6-4 6-2#329Nicolas Kicker

6-1 6-2—Nick Mertgens

6-3 6-4#171Joel Schwaerzler

Marvin Moeller

11W 4L

6-4 6-3#230Cezar Cretu

6-3 7-6(6)#261Matias Soto

6-1 6-3#351Thomas Faurel

6-3 6-4#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

4-6 7-6(5) 7-5#186Jan Kumstat

6-2 6-4#254Matej Dodig

6-4 6-0#494Niels Mcdonald

5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(4)#224Raul Brancaccio

6-1 5-7 6-4#230Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#91Hugo Gaston

6-3 5-0 ret.#60Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

0-6 6-3 7-6(6)#847Benito Sanchez Martinez

7-6(5) 6-3#233Kilian Feldbausch

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#328Calvin Hemery

6-2 3-6 7-6(1)#442Marat Sharipov (RUS)

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MMMaxim MrvaMrva

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Marvin MoellerMoellerMM

Marvin Moeller carries the stronger recent form — Maxim Mrva's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In54.3%+4.7pp59.0%

1st Serve Won66.3%+4.2pp70.5%

2nd Serve Won50.0%—50.1%

Aces / Match3.5—3.3

Double Faults / Match3.92.0 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.4%+4.1pp41.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.4%+6.3pp42.1%

Break Pts Saved55.9%+7.6pp63.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+0.8pp51.5%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

54.3%1st Serve In+4.7pp59.0%

66.3%1st Serve Won+4.2pp70.5%

50.0%2nd Serve Won—50.1%

3.5Aces / Match—3.3

3.9Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

45.4%Return Pts Won+4.1pp41.3%

Pressure · 1–1

48.4%Break Pts Converted+6.3pp42.1%

55.9%Break Pts Saved+7.6pp63.5%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+0.8pp51.5%