Plovdiv - BulgariaFinished

Predictions graded

Oleg Prihodko #404Ukraine1Maxim Mrva #317Czechia2

Sets 5-7 · 7-6 · 1-6Tue 1 Sept 2026, 13:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–0100%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaxim Mrva · 87 places

Oleg Prihodko

Ukraine

Born 3 October 1997. His career-high singles ranking is No. 307, achieved on 18 August 2025.

Current ranking: #404
Peak ranking: #307 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Maxim Mrva

Czechia

Born on 2 August 2007, he turned 19 during Hagen qualifying. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 271 on 16 March 2026.

Current ranking: #317
Peak ranking: #271 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 03:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Mrva is favored based on ranking and recent form, but Prihodko's superior first-serve points won and slightly better point-winning percentages make him a live underdog.

The best betting angles are Over 21.5 total games and Prihodko +3.5 games, both with positive edges.

Context

Mrva, 20, is ranked 211 and has built a 21-16 clay record in 2026, with a career return points won of 44%.
In the last 15 matches, Mrva has won 73.3% of matches and 44.1% of return points, while Prihodko has won 66.7% and 41.5%. Mrva's superior return game could pressure Prihodko's serve, especially on second serves where Prihodko wins only 49.9% of points.
- Mrva last15 record: 11-4 (73.3%), Prihodko: 10-5 (66.7%)
- Mrva return points won: 44.1%, Prihodko: 41.5%
- Prihodko second serve points won: 49.9%
Prihodko, 25, is ranked 404 and has a career first serve win rate of 68%.
Prihodko averages 6.2 aces per match and saves 59.5% of break points, compared to Mrva's 3.8 aces and 57.4% save rate. If Prihodko can hold serve consistently, he may neutralize Mrva's return advantage and force tiebreaks or late-set pressure.
- Prihodko aces per match: 6.2, Mrva: 3.8
- Prihodko break points saved: 59.5%, Mrva: 57.4%
- Prihodko first serve points won: 74.5%
The two players met once before, in September 2024 at a Challenger event.
Mrva won 7-5, 0-6, 7-6(6) on clay, showing he can recover from a lopsided set. That experience may help him handle pressure moments, though the match was nearly two years ago and both players have evolved.
- 2024-09-21: Mrva def. Prihodko 7-5 0-6 7-6(6) on clay

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Maxim Mrva

1.29fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Mrva's superior recent form, return game, and H2H edge on clay give him a moderate advantage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Mrva's superior recent form, return game, and H2H edge on clay give him a moderate advantage.
- Maxim Mrva has a 73.3% win rate in last 15 matches (11-4), while Oleg Prihodko is at 66.7% (10-5).
- Mrva's return points won is 44.1% vs Prihodko's 41.5% in the last 15 matches.
- Mrva won the only H2H meeting on clay in 2024, 7-5 0-6 7-6(6).
- Mrva's ranking is 211 vs Prihodko's 404.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaxim MrvaEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and the competitive H2H suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Prihodko's last 15 matches average 20.9 games per match (314 total games / 15).
- Mrva's last 15 matches average 21.1 games per match (316 total games / 15).
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 55%.
- H2H match had 31 games (7-5 0-6 7-6).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Prihodko's slightly better underlying stats suggest he can keep the match close, making +3.5 games a reasonable handicap.
- Prihodko's games won percentage is 55.7% vs Mrva's 55.1% in last 15.
- Prihodko's total points won is 53.1% vs Mrva's 51.8%.
- Prihodko has a higher first serve points won (74.5% vs 65.2%).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonOleg Prihodko +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players' recent set averages near the 9.5 line.
- Prihodko's average games per set in last 15 is 9.2 (314 games / 34 sets).
- Mrva's average games per set in last 15 is 9.0 (316 games / 35 sets).
- H2H first set went to 12 games (7-5).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mrva's slight edge in recent set win rate and H2H first-set success supports a lean toward him in set 1.
- Mrva has won 65.7% of sets in last 15 matches, slightly above Prihodko's 64.7%.
- Mrva's first-set win conversion is 87% career, while Prihodko's is 88%.
- In the H2H, Mrva won the first set 7-5.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMaxim MrvaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players slightly exceed the 9.5 line.
- Prihodko averages 6.2 aces per match in last 15.
- Mrva averages 3.8 aces per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 10.0 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages of both players are right at the 6.5 line.
- Prihodko averages 2.5 double faults per match in last 15.
- Mrva averages 4.2 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 6.7 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Maxim Mrva has fulfilled 2 of 5 recent win projections

Maxim Mrva has fulfilled 2 of 5 recent win projections. The average estimated probability was 57.4%, with an expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment was below expectation. All three missed projections ended in losses, with no draws or wins for Mrva in those matches.

Recent evidence for Maxim Mrva5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#185Joel Schwaerzler2-0#303Maxim Mrva

BetBugsMaxim Mrva to win·58%

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#185Joel Schwaerzler2-0#303Maxim Mrva

Maxim Mrva to win

58%probability

Joel Schwaerzler won

14 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#310Maxim Mrva2-1#378Carlo Alberto Caniato

BetBugsMaxim Mrva to win·58%

14 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#310Maxim Mrva2-1#378Carlo Alberto Caniato

Maxim Mrva to win

58%probability

Maxim Mrva won

9 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#295Maxim Mrva0-2#363Federico Bondioli

BetBugsMaxim Mrva to win·58%

9 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#295Maxim Mrva0-2#363Federico Bondioli

Maxim Mrva to win

58%probability

Federico Bondioli won

7 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#295Maxim Mrva2-1#355Gonzalo Villanueva

BetBugsMaxim Mrva to win·58%

7 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#295Maxim Mrva2-1#355Gonzalo Villanueva

Maxim Mrva to win

58%probability

Maxim Mrva won

11 May·Tunis - Tunisia

#312Maxim Mrva1-2#225Federico Cina

BetBugsMaxim Mrva to win·55%

11 May 2026

Tunis - Tunisia

#312Maxim Mrva1-2#225Federico Cina

Maxim Mrva to win

55%probability

Federico Cina won

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-5 0-6 7-6(6)Oleg Prihodko#404vMaxim Mrva#211Sep 21, 2024

1 total meetings

Oleg Prihodko

10W 5L

6-3 0-6 7-5#900Filip Pieczonka

6-1 6-1—Uladzislau Tarasevich

6-1 7-5#352Tiago Pereira

6-1 6-4#324Daniel Michalski

7-6(5) 3-6 6-2#591Imanol Lopez Morillo

7-6(4) 6-2—Adam Majchrzak

6-1 6-2—Lorenzo Berto

4-6 6-2 7-5#547Matyas Fuele

6-4 6-1—Gabriele Crivellaro

6-1 6-3—Alessio Balestrieri

6-4 6-4#233Alex Barrena

6-4 3-6 7-5#644Giovanni Oradini

6-3 7-6(4)#899Lorenzo Rottoli

6-3 6-1#461Khumoun Sultanov

6-4 6-3#555Dimitris Sakellaridis

Maxim Mrva

11W 4L

6-1 7-5#186Jan Kumstat

6-1 6-2#289Cezar Cretu

2-6 6-2 6-4#435Nerman Fatic

6-2 6-2#327Nicolas Kicker

6-3 6-2#233Alex Barrena

6-2 4-2 ret.#169Federico Agustin Gomez

3-6 6-4 6-4#219Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-4 1-6 7-5#622Pierluigi Basile

6-4 6-2#212Guy Den Ouden

6-3 6-3#451Rudolf Molleker

6-4 6-2#327Nicolas Kicker

6-1 6-2—Nick Mertgens

6-3 6-4#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-2 4-6 7-6(7)#267Franco Roncadelli

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#474Carlo Alberto Caniato

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OPOleg PrihodkoPrihodko

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Maxim MrvaMrvaMM

Oleg Prihodko carries the stronger recent form — Maxim Mrva's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In59.4%+4.1pp55.3%

1st Serve Won74.5%+9.3pp65.2%

2nd Serve Won49.9%+1.8pp51.7%

Aces / Match6.2+2.43.8

Double Faults / Match2.51.7 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.5%+2.6pp44.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.0%+2.0pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved59.5%+2.1pp57.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.1%+1.3pp51.8%

Serve · 4–1

59.4%1st Serve In+4.1pp55.3%

74.5%1st Serve Won+9.3pp65.2%

49.9%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp51.7%

6.2Aces / Match+2.43.8

2.5Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

41.5%Return Pts Won+2.6pp44.1%

Pressure · 1–1

48.0%Break Pts Converted+2.0pp50.0%

59.5%Break Pts Saved+2.1pp57.4%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.8%