Maxim Mrva vs Federico Cina: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Mrva's superior clay pedigree, H2H win, and Cina's poor clay form and fitness flag give him a moderate edge.
- Mrva leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-4 7-5 on clay in July 2025.
- Mrva's career clay win percentage is 56% (67-53), while Cina's is 48% (26-28).
- Cina is 2-6 on clay in 2026 with four straight losses, including a recent ankle issue.
- Mrva's recent form includes a Challenger final in March and a win over Rincon (rank 309) in April.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaxim MrvaEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical data and recent match lengths indicate a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- Their only H2H match had 22 games (6-4, 7-5).
- Mrva's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games per match.
- Cina's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 games per match.
- Both players have high deciding-set rates (Mrva 57%, Cina 44%), suggesting close matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Serve-oriented stats and recent set scores suggest the first set will be tight, likely going over 9.5 games.
- H2H first set was 6-4 (10 games).
- Mrva's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games.
- Cina's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 64-69%, limiting quick breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have trended toward longer games, but low confidence due to variability in recent matches.
- H2H second set was 7-5 (12 games).
- Mrva's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games.
- Cina's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mrva's edge on clay and Cina's struggles suggest a narrow cover, but low confidence due to recent form inconsistency.
- Mrva won the H2H by 4 games (13-9).
- Mrva's average game margin in wins this year is +4.2.
- Cina's average game margin in losses on clay is -3.8.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMaxim Mrva -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mrva's strong first-set record and Cina's recent slow starts suggest a slight advantage, but confidence is low due to small sample.
- Mrva won the first set in their only H2H meeting.
- Cina has lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Mrva's first-set win conversion rate is 84% for his career.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaxim MrvaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mrva's high double-fault rate drives the total well above 5.5, making this a strong over play.
- Mrva averages 5.7 double faults per match.
- Cina averages 3.5 double faults per match.
- Combined average is 9.2 double faults per match.
- In their H2H, Mrva had 5 double faults alone.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance62%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Maxim Mrva #312Czechia1Federico Cina #225Italy2

Player Profiles

Maxim Mrva

Federico Cina

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Maxim Mrva

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Maxim Mrva

Federico Cina