TürkiyeIstanbul - TurkeyFinished

Predictions graded

Ivan Marrero Curbelo #350Spain1Maks Kasnikowski #258Poland2

Sets 6-4 · 5-7 · 0-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaks Kasnikowski · 92 places

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Spain

Marrero Curbelo, 27, is a Spanish right-hander. His current No. 350 ranking is also his career best, reached in August 2026.

Current ranking: #350
Peak ranking: #350 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

Kasnikowski, 23, is a Polish right-hander. He reached a career-high No. 168 in October 2024. The required public profile search did not establish a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #258
Peak ranking: #168 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Marrero Curbelo's superior recent form and direct H2H win on hard make him a strong value play at 3.60, despite Kasnikowski's higher ranking.

Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games, and consider Kasnikowski +3.5 on the game handicap.

Context

Ivan Marrero Curbelo, ATP No. 350, is the home player in this Istanbul match. He retired from his most recent match on August 31 in Manacor qualifying while trailing Oskari Paldanius 6-4, 2-0.
That retirement came only seven days before this match, so his current physical condition and availability are unresolved. If he is not fully fit, his movement and endurance could be limited, especially in a best-of-three match on hard court. The retirement itself does not confirm a specific injury, but it is a strong warning sign that he may not be able to compete at his usual level.
- The 31 August Manacor qualifying match ended with Marrero Curbelo retired at 6-4, 2-0.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-08-31T15:15:00.000Z against Oskari Paldanius ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
To watchSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 15:43 · Europe/BucharestOskari Paldanius vs Ivan Marrero Curbelo Mens Singleswww.mykhel.com · 31 Aug 2026
Marrero Curbelo, ranked 350, has built his recent results on hard courts, winning 10 of 15 matches in that span.
Kasnikowski has only two wins in his last five hard-court matches and lost their August meeting on this surface. Marrero Curbelo's 66.7% win rate over the last 15 matches gives him a clear recent edge, though his last match ended in a retirement loss.
- Marrero Curbelo is 10-5 in his last 15 matches, all on hard courts.
- Kasnikowski is 2-3 in his last five hard-court matches.
- Marrero Curbelo's last match was a retirement loss to Oskari Paldanius on August 31.
The two met on August 6 in a hard-court Challenger, with Marrero Curbelo ranked 350 and Kasnikowski 258.
Marrero Curbelo lost the first set but won the next two, converting 83% of break points. That result suggests he can trouble Kasnikowski's serve, though one match is a small sample.
- Marrero Curbelo won 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-1 on August 6, 2026.
- Marrero Curbelo converted 5 of 6 break points in that match.
- Kasnikowski hit 11 aces but won only 44% of second-serve points.
Kasnikowski, ranked 258, relies on a strong first serve, winning 70.1% of first-serve points in his last 15 matches.
His 58.7% first-serve rate leaves him vulnerable, and Marrero Curbelo's 41% return points won could pressure his second serve. In their August meeting, Kasnikowski won only 44% of second-serve points.
- Kasnikowski averages 4.2 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
- His first-serve percentage is 58.7% in that span.
- Marrero Curbelo has won 41% of return points in his last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.60
The read
Marrero Curbelo has stronger recent form and a direct H2H win over Kasnikowski on hard, giving him the edge in this Bo3 match.
- Last 15 overall record: Marrero Curbelo 10-5 (66.7%) vs Kasnikowski 7-8 (46.7%)
- H2H on hard (Aug 2026): Marrero Curbelo won 2-6 7-6(4) 6-1
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 hard-court record: 10-5; Kasnikowski last 5 hard-court record: 2-3
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIvan Marrero CurbeloEstimated chance58%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play longer matches, and their recent H2H went three sets with 28 games, supporting over 21.5 total games.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 average games per match: 21.3
- Kasnikowski last 15 average games per match: 25.3
- H2H match had 28 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kasnikowski's competitive game totals and the close H2H suggest he can stay within 3.5 games even in a loss.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 average games won per match: 11.3
- Kasnikowski last 15 average games won per match: 12.5
- H2H: Kasnikowski won 13 games to Marrero Curbelo's 15
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMaks Kasnikowski +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have first-set averages near 9.5 games, and competitive matches often produce a tight opening set.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 average first-set games: 9.3
- Kasnikowski last 15 average first-set games: 9.7
- H2H first set had 8 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been competitive, and the H2H second set went to a tiebreak, indicating potential for over 9.5 games.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 average second-set games: 9.1
- Kasnikowski last 15 average second-set games: 9.9
- H2H second set went to tiebreak (13 games)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a high frequency of three-set matches, and their H2H went the distance, supporting over 2.5 sets.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 three-set matches: 7 of 15 (46.7%)
- Kasnikowski last 15 three-set matches: 8 of 15 (53.3%)
- H2H match went three sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar first-set conversion rates, but Marrero Curbelo's overall form and H2H comeback suggest he can start strong.
- Marrero Curbelo first-set win conversion career: 85%
- Kasnikowski first-set win conversion career: 83%
- H2H: Kasnikowski won first set 6-2 before losing match
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIvan Marrero CurbeloEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kasnikowski's higher ace rate, especially on hard courts, should push the combined total over 5.5 aces.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 aces per match: 1.1
- Kasnikowski last 15 aces per match: 4.2
- H2H: Kasnikowski had 11 aces, Marrero Curbelo 2
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages suggest a total around 4.5, with Marrero Curbelo's higher rate pushing the over.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 double faults per match: 3.0
- Kasnikowski last 15 double faults per match: 1.5
- H2H: Marrero Curbelo 3 double faults, Kasnikowski 2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Kasnikowski is heavily favored but his recent hard-court form and H2H loss to Marrero Curbelo make this price too short.

Prediction history

Ivan Marrero Curbelo has been highly reliable when projected to win

Ivan Marrero Curbelo has fulfilled 3 of 4 win predictions, a 75% success rate. His average estimated probability was 71%, with an expected 2.8 fulfilled predictions, so he has slightly outperformed expectations. The only miss came as an away underdog against Alejandro Moro Canas, while all three wins occurred when he was favored.

Recent evidence for Ivan Marrero Curbelo4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#222Alejandro Moro Canas2-0#369Ivan Marrero Curbelo

BetBugsIvan Marrero Curbelo to win·72%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#222Alejandro Moro Canas2-0#369Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Ivan Marrero Curbelo to win

72%probability

Alejandro Moro Canas won

Missed

21 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#369Ivan Marrero Curbelo2-0#332Facundo Mena

BetBugsIvan Marrero Curbelo to win·62%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#369Ivan Marrero Curbelo2-0#332Facundo Mena

Ivan Marrero Curbelo to win

62%probability

Ivan Marrero Curbelo won

Matched

20 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#376Ivan Marrero Curbelo2-1#504Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

BetBugsIvan Marrero Curbelo to win·72%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#376Ivan Marrero Curbelo2-1#504Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Ivan Marrero Curbelo to win

72%probability

Ivan Marrero Curbelo won

Matched

6 May·Brazzaville - Republic of the Congo

#696Matteo Covato0-2#481Ivan Marrero Curbelo

BetBugsIvan Marrero Curbelo to win·78%

Matched

6 May 2026

Brazzaville - Republic of the Congo

#696Matteo Covato0-2#481Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Ivan Marrero Curbelo to win

78%probability

Ivan Marrero Curbelo won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W2-6 7-6(4) 6-1Ivan Marrero Curbelo#350vMaks Kasnikowski#258Aug 6, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

10W 5L

6-4 2-0 ret.#824Oskari Paldanius

6-4 6-2#211Andres Andrade

3-6 7-5 6-2#391Blaise Bicknell

6-4 6-4#777Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-2 4-6 6-3—Lev Seidman

6-3 6-3#339Mathys Erhard

2-6 7-6(4) 6-1#258Maks Kasnikowski

6-1 3-6 6-3#560Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-4#238Alejandro Moro Canas

6-4 6-3#306Facundo Mena

2-6 7-6(8) 6-2#433Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-4 6-3—Enrique Collar

6-3 6-3#697Keshav Chopra

7-5 6-3#621Nicolas Tepmahc

6-3 6-2—Volodymyr Iakubenko

Maks Kasnikowski

7W 8L

7-5 7-6(5)#395Alejo Sanchez Quilez 6-2 4-6 6-4#170Elmer Moller

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#149Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

2-6 7-6(4) 6-1#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

6-3 6-4#276Philip Henning

6-1 3-6 6-3#239Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-2 6-2#109Otto Virtanen

5-7 6-4 7-5#270Hynek Barton

6-3 6-2#479Eero Vasa

6-2 6-1#490Louis Wessels

6-1 3-6 6-3#207Francesco Passaro

4-6 6-0 6-3#178Jerome Kym

4-6 6-3 7-5#148Pedro Martinez Portero

6-4 3-6 7-5#181Federico Cina

4-6 6-3 6-2#118Zsombor Piros

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ICIvan Marrero CurbeloCurbelo

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Maks KasnikowskiKasnikowskiMK

Ivan Marrero Curbelo carries the stronger recent form — Maks Kasnikowski's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.5%+7.8pp58.7%

1st Serve Won67.4%+2.7pp70.1%

2nd Serve Won52.3%—52.1%

Aces / Match1.1+3.14.2

Double Faults / Match3.01.5 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.0%+2.7pp38.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted39.7%+5.3pp34.4%

Break Pts Saved57.1%+5.3pp51.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.5%+1.6pp49.9%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

66.5%1st Serve In+7.8pp58.7%

67.4%1st Serve Won+2.7pp70.1%

52.3%2nd Serve Won—52.1%

1.1Aces / Match+3.14.2

3.0Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

41.0%Return Pts Won+2.7pp38.3%

Pressure · 2–0

39.7%Break Pts Converted+5.3pp34.4%

57.1%Break Pts Saved+5.3pp51.8%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won+1.6pp49.9%

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Maks Kasnikowski

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Result0 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Maks Kasnikowski @ 1.25

Head-to-Head

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Maks Kasnikowski

Stat Battle