SpainSegovia - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Alejandro Moro Canas #222Spain2Ivan Marrero Curbelo #369Spain0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Thu 23 Jul 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejandro Moro Canas · 147 places

Alejandro Moro Canas

Spain

Spanish right-hander from Madrid. Search results list a career-high No. 142 on 2024-08-26 and Clay as his favourite surface. He has stayed active at Challenger level, including Wimbledon qualifying in late June and Segovia this week.

Current ranking: #222
Peak ranking: #142 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Spain

Spanish right-hander, 27, ranked No. 369 in the provided structured data. Public profile data is thinner than for Moro Canas, but the search results place him around a current career-high ranking and show a recent schedule built around lower-tier events and this Segovia qualifying run.

Current ranking: #369
Peak ranking: #369
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Jul 2026, 08:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Ivan Marrero Curbelo’s dominant 14-1 hard-court form and elite return numbers make him a huge value underdog against Alejandro Moro Canas, who has just one hard-court match in his last 15.

Back Marrero Curbelo to win the match and cover a -3.5 game handicap, with a straight-sets victory the most likely outcome.

Context

Marrero Curbelo last 15 overall record: 14-1 (93.3%), all on hard courts.
- He won 65.1% of games and 56.5% of total points in that span.
- Moro Canas last 15 overall record: 8-7, with only 1 hard-court match (a tight three-set win).
- Marrero Curbelo's return points won (48.3%) far exceeds Moro Canas' 37.2%.
Marrero Curbelo beat Collar, Bittoun Kouzmine, and Mena in straight sets (one comeback from a set down).
- Moro Canas needed 2 hours 44 minutes to edge qualifier Giunta in three sets.
- Marrero Curbelo's matches averaged 99 minutes; Moro Canas' opener lasted 164 minutes.
Moro Canas' last 15 matches: 11 on clay, 3 on grass, 1 on hard.
- His only hard-court match was a 7-6, 5-7, 6-4 win over world No. 425 Giunta.
- Career hard-court win rate is 58%, but recent sample is too small to trust.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Marrero Curbelo's dominant recent hard-court form (14-1, 65% games won) heavily outweighs Moro Canas' mixed results across surfaces, giving a strong surface-fit and form edge.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 overall record: 14-1 (93.3% win rate), all on hard courts.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 hard court games won: 65.1% (179/275), total points won: 56.5%.
- Moro Canas last 15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%), hard court sample only 1 match (win).
- Marrero Curbelo return points won last 15: 48.3% vs Moro Canas 37.2%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIvan Marrero CurbeloEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Marrero Curbelo's consistent large-margin wins on hard courts support a handicap cover of -3.5 games against a player with limited hard-court form.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 hard court games won: 65.1%, average margin +5.4 games per match.
- Moro Canas last 15 overall games won: 50.3%, only 1 hard court match (won 18-17).
- Marrero Curbelo's last 10 wins: average game margin +6.1.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostIvan Marrero Curbelo -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Marrero Curbelo's matches are consistently short on hard courts, with an average of ~12 games in wins; combined with Moro Canas' limited hard-court data, a quick match is likely.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 matches: average 18.3 games per match (275 total games / 15 matches).
- Moro Canas last 15 matches: average 26.5 games per match, but only 1 hard court match (35 games).
- Marrero Curbelo's last 10 hard court wins: 12, 15, 12, 12, 13, 12, 12, 10, 14, 9 games (avg 12.1).
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Marrero Curbelo's superior recent set-winning rate and elite return numbers on hard courts make him a clear favorite to take the opening set.
- Marrero Curbelo first set win conversion career: 85%, Moro Canas: 81%.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 sets won: 90.3% (28/31), Moro Canas: 48.7% (19/39).
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 hard court return points won: 48.3%, break point conversion: 42.9%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIvan Marrero CurbeloEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 5.25
The read
Marrero Curbelo's dominance in straight sets (12/14 wins) and Moro Canas' tendency to lose in straights suggest a 2-0 outcome is the most probable set score.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15: 12 straight-set wins in 14 victories.
- Moro Canas last 15: lost 6 of 8 losses in straight sets.
- Marrero Curbelo sets won last 15: 90.3%, Moro Canas sets won: 48.7%.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostIvan Marrero Curbelo 2-0Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
The high frequency of straight-set results in Marrero Curbelo's recent matches points to a match finishing in two sets.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15: 12 of 14 wins in straight sets.
- Moro Canas last 15: 6 of 8 losses in straight sets.
- Combined straight-set rate in Marrero Curbelo's matches: 80% (12/15).
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marrero Curbelo's extremely low ace rate (1.1 per match) makes a high total ace count unlikely, even if Moro Canas contributes a few.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 aces per match: 1.1 (total 17 aces in 15 matches).
- Moro Canas last 15 aces per match: 4.7, but only 1 hard court match (10 aces).
- Combined average aces per match: 5.8, but Marrero Curbelo's low ace count drags total down.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marrero Curbelo's matches rarely feature tiebreaks (2 in last 15), suggesting a low probability of a tiebreak occurring.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15: only 2 tiebreaks played in 15 matches.
- Moro Canas last 15: 7 tiebreaks in 15 matches, but only 1 on hard court.
- Marrero Curbelo career tiebreak win%: 46%, Moro Canas: 47%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marrero Curbelo's high double fault rate (4.7 per match) pushes the combined total above 6.5, though Moro Canas' lower rate adds uncertainty.
- Marrero Curbelo last 15 double faults per match: 4.7 (71 total).
- Moro Canas last 15 double faults per match: 2.3 (34 total).
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.0.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Alejandro Moro Canas

8W 7L

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#425Massimo Giunta

6-4 7-6(6) 6-3#157Soon-Woo Kwon

6-3 7-6(3)#211Harold Mayot

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#101Francisco Comesana

1-6 7-6(2) 6-4#379Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-7(1) 6-1 6-1#217Kimmer Coppejans

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#312Calvin Hemery

7-6(3) 6-3#218Henri Squire

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#311Max Schoenhaus

6-1 6-3#434Mika Petkovic

6-3 6-3#143Stefano Travaglia

6-1 6-3#172Lukas Neumayer

4-6 7-6(4) 6-0#229Stefano Napolitano

7-5 3-6 7-6(4)#427Tiago Torres

6-2 6-3#374Manas Manoj Dhamne

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

14W 1L

6-4 6-3#332Facundo Mena

2-6 7-6(8) 6-2#508Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-4 6-3—Enrique Collar

6-3 6-3#815Keshav Chopra

7-5 6-3#617Nicolas Tepmahc

6-3 6-2—Volodymyr Iakubenko

6-1 6-0—Rafael Giotis

6-4 4-1 ret.—Laurence Teunissen

7-6(2) 7-6(5)#555Maxwell Mckennon

6-1 3-0 ret.#826Dinko Dinev

6-2 6-2#815Keshav Chopra

6-4 6-1—Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar

6-2 6-0—Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko

7-6(3) 6-3#816Demetris Azoides

7-5 6-1#1852Bora Sengul

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ACAlejandro Moro CanasCanas

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Ivan Marrero CurbeloCurbeloIC

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In65.6%+3.2pp62.4%

1st Serve Won68.8%+4.6pp73.4%

2nd Serve Won54.5%+3.2pp51.3%

Aces / Match4.7+3.61.1

Double Faults / Match2.32.4 fewer4.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.2%+11.1pp48.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted36.8%+6.1pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved62.4%—62.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.4%+6.1pp56.5%

Serve · 4–1

65.6%1st Serve In+3.2pp62.4%

68.8%1st Serve Won+4.6pp73.4%

54.5%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp51.3%

4.7Aces / Match+3.61.1

2.3Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer4.7

Return · 0–1

37.2%Return Pts Won+11.1pp48.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

36.8%Break Pts Converted+6.1pp42.9%

62.4%Break Pts Saved—62.9%

Points · 0–1

50.4%Total Pts Won+6.1pp56.5%

Alejandro Moro Canas

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Ivan Marrero Curbelo 2-0

Under 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Alejandro Moro Canas @ 1.33

Alejandro Moro Canas

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Stat Battle