SpainMallorca - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Inaki Montes-De La Torre #275Spain1Felix Balshaw #248France2

Sets 6-3 · 2-6 · 3-6Sun 6 Sept 2026, 16:50 Predictions gradedFinalHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFelix Balshaw · 27 places

Inaki Montes-De La Torre

Spain

Spanish right-hander, born 3 October 2002. Public profile data lists a career-best No. 269 in June 2026 and hard as his favourite surface. A June 2025 report described earlier physical problems as overcome, not as an active concern.

Current ranking: #275
Peak ranking: #269 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Felix Balshaw

France

A 20-year-old, 193 cm right-hander with a one-handed backhand. He reached a career-high No. 246 in July 2026 during a rapid rise that included two Challenger finals.

Current ranking: #248
Peak ranking: #246 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 02:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Montes-De La Torre's superior hard-court form and return game give him a 58% win probability, making him a value bet at 2.20.

Expect a close, long match with over 22.5 total games and at least one tiebreak likely.

Context

Montes-De La Torre, ranked 274, has won 8 of his last 9 hard-court matches, including a retirement win over No. 165 Jack Pinnington Jones. Balshaw, ranked 252, has won four straight in Manacor, beating No. 138 Alexandre Muller and No. 152 Mark Lajal.
Montes-De La Torre's hard-court sample shows a 88.9% win rate and stronger return numbers (44% return points won) than Balshaw's 66.7% and 38.9%. However, Balshaw's recent wins came against higher-ranked opposition, suggesting his form may be more battle-tested. The final could hinge on whether Montes-De La Torre's surface efficiency holds against Balshaw's momentum.
- Montes-De La Torre is 8-1 on hard courts in his last 9 matches, with wins over No. 165 and No. 208.
- Balshaw is 6-3 on hard courts in his last 9, but his last four wins include No. 138 Muller and No. 152 Lajal.
- Montes-De La Torre's hard-court return points won is 44% vs Balshaw's 38.9%.
Inaki Montes-De La Torre and Felix Balshaw meet in the Rafa Nadal Open final in Mallorca on 6 September.
This is the title match, so both players are competing for the tournament win. The final setting raises the stakes but does not alter the hard-court form and serve-return patterns already described.
- The 5 September tournament announcement names both players for the 6 September final.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 02:45 · Europe/Bucharest
Balshaw averages 7 aces per match on hard courts and wins 72.8% of first-serve points. Montes-De La Torre averages 2.3 aces and wins 67.3% of first-serve points.
Balshaw's serve could shorten points and pressure Montes-De La Torre's return game, which has been solid at 44% return points won. If Balshaw's first serve lands consistently, he may control rallies; if not, Montes-De La Torre's return advantage could neutralize the power.
- Balshaw's hard-court aces per match: 7.0 vs Montes-De La Torre's 2.3.
- Balshaw's first-serve points won on hard: 72.8% vs Montes-De La Torre's 67.3%.
- Montes-De La Torre's return points won on hard: 44% vs Balshaw's 38.9%.
Montes-De La Torre's last three wins include two three-setters, including a 2-6 7-6(2) 7-6(2) battle. Balshaw's last two wins were straight sets, though he also had a three-setter earlier.
Montes-De La Torre has spent more time on court in recent rounds, which could lead to fatigue in a final. Balshaw's relatively fresher legs might give him an edge if the match extends to a deciding set.
- Montes-De La Torre's last three matches: 3 sets, 3 sets, 2 sets.
- Balshaw's last three matches: 2 sets, 3 sets, 2 sets.
- Montes-De La Torre's average hard-court match duration is 122.8 minutes vs Balshaw's 124.9 minutes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Montes-De La Torre has a stronger recent hard-court record and better return/break-point numbers, giving him a structural edge in this final.
- Last 15 on Hard: 8-1 record, 55.7% games won, 53.3% total points won
- Last 15 overall: 66.7% win rate, 51.1% games won
- Recent form: 4 straight wins this tournament, including wins over higher-ranked opponents
- Career hard court win rate: 66/170 total wins on hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostInaki Montes-De La TorreEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in long, competitive matches, suggesting a high total games count is likely.
- Montes-De La Torre last 15 average duration: 113.2 minutes
- Balshaw last 15 average duration: 113.7 minutes
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
- Combined games per match average: ~22.5
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have often been close, with several tiebreaks, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Montes-De La Torre recent first sets: 6-2, 6-2, 3-6, 7-6
- Balshaw recent first sets: 7-6, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6
- Both players have had tiebreaks and close first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also been tight, with several going to 10+ games, supporting the over.
- Montes-De La Torre recent second sets: 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6
- Balshaw recent second sets: 7-5, 7-6, 6-2, 7-5
- Both players have had competitive second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Montes-De La Torre's slight edge in recent form and return stats supports a narrow handicap win.
- Montes-De La Torre last 15 games won: 51.1%
- Balshaw last 15 games won: 52.2%
- Montes-De La Torre has won 4 straight matches, Balshaw 4 straight
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostInaki Montes-De La Torre -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches suggests a three-setter is more likely than a straight-sets win.
- Montes-De La Torre last 15: 10-5 record, 55.6% sets won
- Balshaw last 15: 9-6 record, 58.8% sets won
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Montes-De La Torre's strong first-set conversion and recent momentum give him a slight edge to take the opener.
- Montes-De La Torre first set win conversion: 92% career
- Balshaw first set win conversion: 95% career
- Montes-De La Torre has won first set in 3 of last 4 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonInaki Montes-De La TorreEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The closeness of recent sets and both players' tiebreak experience suggest at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Montes-De La Torre tiebreak win percentage: 63% career
- Balshaw tiebreak win percentage: 51% career
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average nearly 4 double faults per match, making over 6.5 total double faults likely.
- Montes-De La Torre last 15 double faults per match: 3.8
- Balshaw last 15 double faults per match: 3.9
- Combined average double faults per match: ~7.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Balshaw's high ace count, combined with Montes-De La Torre's moderate ace rate, makes over 7.5 total aces plausible.
- Balshaw last 15 aces per match: 5.7
- Montes-De La Torre last 15 aces per match: 2.1
- Combined average aces per match: ~7.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Inaki Montes-De La Torre

10W 5L

2-6 7-6(2) 7-6(2)#488Luca Potenza 3-6 6-3 3-0 ret.#165Jack Pinnington Jones 6-2 6-4#208Daniel Rincon 6-2 3-6 6-4#339Mathys Erhard

6-3 6-4#371George Loffhagen

7-6(8) 6-1#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

3-6 6-3 6-3#500Adrian Boitan

4-6 6-4 6-4#824Oskari Paldanius

6-1 6-3#783Matt Ponchet

6-3 6-3#236Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-2#270Hynek Barton

6-3 6-0#570Lorenzo Angelini

6-1 6-3#233Kilian Feldbausch

7-5 6-1#429Maxime Chazal

6-3 4-6 6-1#304Federico Bondioli

Felix Balshaw

9W 6L

7-6(7) 7-5#152Mark Lajal 3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#161Billy Harris 7-5 6-2#138Alexandre Muller 7-6(3) 7-5#247August Holmgren

6-4 7-6(4)#84Aleksandar Kovacevic

4-6 6-4 6-3#731Sebastian Gorzny

7-5 6-3#874Luca Pow

6-4 7-6(3)#238Alejandro Moro Canas

5-7 7-5 7-6(0)#322Daniel Milavsky

6-1 4-6 6-1#229Stefano Napolitano

7-6(4) 6-4#298Florian Broska

6-0 6-2#276Philip Henning

6-2 7-5#347Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-3 7-5#236Sumit Nagal

7-6(5) 7-5#257Andrej Nedic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ITInaki Montes-De La TorreTorre

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Felix BalshawBalshawFB

Inaki Montes-De La Torre carries the stronger recent form — Felix Balshaw's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1558.2%+3.0pp55.2%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1564.8%+5.9pp70.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1552.6%+2.4pp55.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.1+3.65.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.8—3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1541.4%+2.4pp39.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1539.3%+3.4pp35.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1562.5%+6.4pp56.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.5%—51.0%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

58.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.0pp55.2%

64.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.9pp70.7%

52.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.4pp55.0%

2.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+3.65.7

3.8Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/15—3.9

Return · 1–0

41.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.4pp39.0%

Pressure · 2–0

39.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+3.4pp35.9%

62.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+6.4pp56.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—51.0%