August Holmgren #22600 – 2Felix Balshaw #248France2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.10

The read

Balshaw's stronger recent return and break conversion give him the edge in a hard-court match where both players have similar serve profiles.

• Balshaw last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Holmgren 7-8 (46.7%)
• Balshaw return points won 40.6% vs Holmgren 34.6% over last 15
• Balshaw break point conversion 41.2% vs Holmgren 36.1% over last 15
• Balshaw career win % 62.9% vs Holmgren 61.4%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combined recent match lengths and competitive hard-court dynamics point to a match exceeding 22.5 games.

• Holmgren last 15 average 26.3 games per match
• Balshaw last 15 average 22.1 games per match
• Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be tight given both players' recent first-set game counts and tiebreak tendencies.

• Holmgren first set average 9.9 games in last 15
• Balshaw first set average 9.3 games in last 15
• Both players have tiebreak history in first sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Balshaw's edge in return and break conversion suggests he can cover a -1.5 game handicap in a close match.

• Balshaw games won % 54.7% vs Holmgren 49.9% last 15
• Balshaw return points won 40.6% vs Holmgren 34.6%
• Balshaw break point conversion 41.2% vs Holmgren 36.1%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Balshaw's superior first-set conversion and recent set dominance suggest he is slightly more likely to take the opener.

• Balshaw first set win conversion 95% career vs Holmgren 85%
• Balshaw last 15 sets won 58.8% vs Holmgren 51.3%
• Balshaw hard court last 5 record 2-3 but all losses to higher-ranked opponents

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The closeness of the match and both players' tiebreak history make at least one tiebreak likely.

• Holmgren tiebreak win % 55% career
• Balshaw tiebreak win % 48% career
• Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Holmgren's high ace count combined with Balshaw's moderate ace rate should push total aces over 12.5 in a competitive match.

• Holmgren averages 8.1 aces per match last 15
• Balshaw averages 4.7 aces per match last 15
• Combined average 12.8 aces per match

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Holmgren's high double fault rate and Balshaw's moderate rate should combine to exceed 8.5 double faults.

• Holmgren averages 5.9 double faults per match last 15
• Balshaw averages 3.3 double faults per match last 15
• Combined average 9.2 double faults per match