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Predictions graded

Gilles Arnaud Bailly #230Belgium2Alex Barrena #261Argentina0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Tue 1 Sept 2026, 13:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGilles Arnaud Bailly · 31 places

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Belgium

Belgian right-hander, age 20, with an ATP career-high ranking of No. 201 achieved in November 2025. His supplied current ranking is No. 230; no reliably sourced preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #230
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Alex Barrena

Argentina

Argentine right-hander whose highest singles ranking is No. 167, reached in March 2026. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #261
Peak ranking: #167 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 15:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Barrena has a clear edge over Bailly based on superior recent clay form, a straight-set H2H win, and better second-serve performance.

Bet on Barrena to win the match and the first set, with value at odds around 2.00. Avoid the set betting market on Barrena 2-0 due to low confidence and insufficient edge.

Context

Barrena, 23, is a clay-court specialist from Argentina with a career 55% win rate on the surface.
Barrena's recent clay results are slightly better than Bailly's, but both players have struggled against higher-ranked opponents. Bailly's last five matches include three losses to players ranked outside the top 300, which raises questions about his current level.
- Barrena's last 15 clay matches: 8 wins, 7 losses (53.3% win rate).
- Bailly's last 13 clay matches: 5 wins, 8 losses (38.5% win rate).
- Bailly lost to Norbert Gombos (rank 361), Raphael Perot (337), and Samuele Pieri (393) in his last five matches.
The two players met once before, on clay in 2025.
Barrena won that match in straight sets, but it was over a year ago and both players have had many matches since. The head-to-head gives Barrena a small psychological edge, but it is not a strong predictor for this match.
- 2025-06-06: Barrena def. Bailly 6-4 6-4 on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Barrena's superior recent clay form, H2H win, and better second-serve performance give him a clear edge in this Bo3 clay match.
- Alex Barrena won the only H2H meeting 6-4 6-4 on clay in June 2025.
- Barrena's last 15 clay record is 8-7 (53.3%) vs Bailly's 5-8 (38.5%).
- Barrena has a stronger second-serve points won rate (53% vs 46.7%) in the recent window.
- Bailly's recent form is poor: 5-10 overall in last 15, with losses to lower-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlex BarrenaEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup and frequent three-set matches suggest a total games line above 21.5 is plausible.
- Both players have similar games won percentages in recent clay matches: Bailly 49.3%, Barrena 49.2%.
- Bailly's last 15 matches average 22.0 total games; Barrena's average 20.9.
- Their H2H match had 20 games, but both players have had many three-set matches recently.
- Bailly's matches have gone to three sets in 7 of his last 15, increasing total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested, with a good chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Bailly's recent first sets have averaged 9.8 games; Barrena's averaged 9.3.
- Both players have similar first-serve percentages around 63-66%, leading to competitive sets.
- The H2H first set was 6-4, totaling 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Barrena's H2H first-set success and Bailly's tendency to start slowly support Barrena taking the opening set.
- Barrena won the first set 6-4 in their only H2H meeting.
- Barrena's first-set win conversion career rate is 86%, higher than Bailly's 88% but with more matches.
- Barrena's recent first-serve points won is 62.2% vs Bailly's 64.6%, but Barrena has better return points won on clay (39.6% vs 41.8% for Bailly).
- Bailly has lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlex BarrenaEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the break-point opportunities and lack of tiebreaks in their H2H, a tiebreak is less likely than not.
- Bailly's tiebreak win percentage is 72%, but he has played few tiebreaks recently.
- Barrena's tiebreak win percentage is 51%.
- In their H2H match, there were no tiebreaks.
- Both players have moderate first-serve percentages, but break points are common.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are low ace producers on clay, making under 5.5 total aces highly likely.
- Bailly averages 1.1 aces per match in last 15; Barrena also averages 1.1.
- On clay, Bailly averages 1.0 aces per match; Barrena 1.1.
- Combined average aces per match is around 2.2, well below 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-4Gilles Arnaud Bailly#240vAlex Barrena#233Jun 6, 2025

1 total meetings

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

5W 10L

6-4 6-2#205Timofey Skatov

4-6 6-1 6-4#361Norbert Gombos

6-2 6-4#337Raphael Perot

6-1 6-2—Fadi Bidan

6-2 6-4—Mac Visser

6-3 6-0—Zaccharie Cado

6-2 6-3#393Samuele Pieri

6-3 6-2#271Hynek Barton

7-6(4) 6-2#334Daniel Elahi Galan

2-6 6-4 6-2#312Filippo Romano

7-5 2-6 6-2#313Miguel Damas

5-7 6-4 7-5#740Andres Santamarta Roig

6-3 3-6 6-4#214Henri Squire

6-4 6-4#210Pol Martin Tiffon

4-6 6-3 6-3#797Cosme Rolland De Ravel

Alex Barrena

8W 7L

6-3 6-2#211Maxim Mrva

5-1 ret.#191Lukas Neumayer

6-2 6-3#320Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-4 6-4#384Georgii Kravchenko

6-4 6-1#214Henri Squire

7-6(4) 6-2#205Timofey Skatov

6-3 6-2#75Jan Choinski

3-6 6-3 6-3#417Johan Nikles

6-2 6-3#426Niels Visker

6-4 3-6 7-6(2)#228Stefano Napolitano

6-7(4) 6-4 7-5#285Franco Agamenone

6-4 6-3#219Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-4 6-4#404Oleg Prihodko

6-0 7-6(7)#128Gustavo Heide

5-7 6-1 6-4#140Hugo Dellien

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GBGilles Arnaud BaillyBailly

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Alex BarrenaBarrenaAB

Alex Barrena carries the stronger recent form — Gilles Arnaud Bailly's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.8%+1.7pp65.5%

1st Serve Won64.6%+2.4pp62.2%

2nd Serve Won46.7%+6.3pp53.0%

Aces / Match1.1—1.1

Double Faults / Match2.30.8 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.5%+0.9pp39.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.8%+4.1pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved58.4%+3.0pp55.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.4%—49.3%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

63.8%1st Serve In+1.7pp65.5%

64.6%1st Serve Won+2.4pp62.2%

46.7%2nd Serve Won+6.3pp53.0%

1.1Aces / Match—1.1

2.3Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

40.5%Return Pts Won+0.9pp39.6%

Pressure · 1–1

38.8%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp42.9%

58.4%Break Pts Saved+3.0pp55.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.4%Total Pts Won—49.3%