GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Sandro Kopp #280Austria2Martin Krumich #255Czechia0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Thu 27 Aug 2026, 12:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Krumich · 25 places

Sandro Kopp

Austria

Austrian player, age 26. His available 2026 ITF record is concentrated on clay; a reliably dated career-high ranking was not confirmed against the supplied current ranking.

Current ranking: #280
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Martin Krumich

Czechia

Krumich is a 23-year-old Czech right-hander. ITF records list clay as his preferred surface and No. 268 as his career-high ATP singles ranking, reached in June 2026.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #268 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 22:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Krumich is the No. 2 seed with a 2-0 H2H lead and better recent form, making him the favorite.

Kopp's three-set opener and clay inconsistency are concerns. Best bets: Krumich ML (slight value) and over 21.5 total games.

Context

Krumich leads the head-to-head 2-0, with wins in 2023 and 2026.
- The most recent meeting was a 6-1 6-2 win for Krumich on clay in January 2026.
- In that match, Krumich won 58% of return points and converted 54% of break points, showing he can break Kopp's serve effectively.
Kopp's first-round match on 24 August went to three sets, with a tiebreak in the second set.
- The match lasted over two hours, adding to his recent workload.
- Krumich, by contrast, won his last two matches in straight sets, including a 6-2 6-3 win over Dominic Stricker.
Krumich's return points won percentage is 43.2% over the last 15 matches.
- Kopp's return points won percentage is 41.4% over the same period.
- Krumich also has a higher career return points won percentage (43% vs 40%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Martin Krumich

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Krumich's head-to-head dominance and superior return stats give him an edge, but the odds slightly overprice his chances.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Krumich's head-to-head dominance and current tournament form give him a clear edge, supported by superior return stats.
- H2H: Krumich leads 2-0, including a 6-1 6-2 win on 2026-01-05 and a retirement win in 2023.
- Krumich is the No. 2 seed in Augsburg and has won his last two matches in straight sets.
- Kopp's last 15 clay record is 9-6, but he lost to lower-ranked Sorger twice in early August.
- Krumich's return points won (43.2%) is higher than Kopp's (41.4%) over the last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMartin KrumichEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent match lengths and the likelihood of a closely contested quarter-final support a higher total games line.
- Kopp's last 15 matches average 20.7 games per match, with several three-setters.
- Krumich's last 15 matches average 22.9 games per match.
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches in recent weeks, indicating competitive rallies.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set scores suggest a competitive opening set with a reasonable chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Kopp's last three first sets: 7-6, 6-1, 3-6 (average 9.7 games).
- Krumich's last three first sets: 4-6, 6-2, 2-6 (average 8.7 games).
- Both players have shown the ability to push first sets to tiebreaks or extended games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krumich's strong recent starts and higher first-set conversion rate suggest he is slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Krumich won the first set in his last two matches (6-2 vs Stricker, 4-6 vs Gulin).
- Kopp lost the first set in his last match against Brunold before winning in three.
- Krumich's first-set win conversion career rate is 87%, higher than Kopp's 85%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMartin KrumichEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krumich's strong serving and Kopp's moderate ace count make over 7.5 total aces a reasonable expectation.
- Krumich averages 4.6 aces per match over the last 15 matches.
- Kopp averages 2.9 aces per match over the last 15 matches.
- Combined average is 7.5 aces per match, with Krumich's higher ace rate pushing the total.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Krumich's higher double fault rate and the pressure of a quarter-final could push the total over 4.5.
- Krumich averages 3.0 double faults per match over the last 15 matches.
- Kopp averages 1.7 double faults per match over the last 15 matches.
- Combined average is 4.7 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Martin Krumich has been highly reliable when projected to win

Martin Krumich has fulfilled 10 of 14 win predictions, a 71% success rate. His average estimated probability was 60.4%, with an expected 8.5 wins, so he has outperformed expectations. The current prediction of 58% is within his historical range of 52% to 72%.

Recent evidence for Martin Krumich14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#183Joel Schwaerzler0-2#261Martin Krumich

BetBugsMartin Krumich to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#183Joel Schwaerzler0-2#261Martin Krumich

Martin Krumich to win

58%probability

Martin Krumich won

Matched

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#260Martin Krumich2-1#294Philip Henning

BetBugsMartin Krumich to win·58%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#260Martin Krumich2-1#294Philip Henning

Martin Krumich to win

58%probability

Martin Krumich won

Matched

14 Jul·ATP Bastad

#150Stefano Travaglia2-0#278Martin Krumich

BetBugsMartin Krumich to win·62%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#150Stefano Travaglia2-0#278Martin Krumich

Martin Krumich to win

62%probability

Stefano Travaglia won

Missed

12 Jul·ATP Bastad

#282Martin Krumich2-0#231Frederico Ferreira Silva

BetBugsMartin Krumich to win·55%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#282Martin Krumich2-0#231Frederico Ferreira Silva

Martin Krumich to win

55%probability

Martin Krumich won

Matched

24 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#364Marko Topo0-2#280Martin Krumich

BetBugsMartin Krumich to win·62%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#364Marko Topo0-2#280Martin Krumich

Martin Krumich to win

62%probability

Martin Krumich won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-1 6-2Sandro Kopp#292vMartin Krumich#262Jan 5, 2026

L4-0 ret.Sandro Kopp#292vMartin Krumich#262Oct 5, 2023

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Sandro Kopp

9W 6L

7-6(3) 6-4#424Mika Brunold 6-1 6-7(4) 6-1#364Eduardo Ribeiro

3-6 6-1 6-4#419Benjamin Hassan

6-4 6-1#539Luca Wiedenmann

6-1 6-1#408Sebastian Sorger

7-6(6) 6-3#408Sebastian Sorger

6-4 6-4#831Adrian Andreev

6-1 6-3#516Federico Arnaboldi

6-2 6-1—Gabriel Sardo

6-2 6-2—Leonardo Borrelli

6-0 6-4#231Kilian Feldbausch

6-4 6-4#288Pierre-Hugues Herbert

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#372Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-4 6-2#271Hynek Barton

7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(8)#280Inaki Montes-De La Torre

Martin Krumich

9W 6L

4-6 6-4 6-1#621Svyatoslav Gulin 6-2 6-3#268Dominic Stricker

2-6 6-4 6-4#433Javier Barranco Cosano

6-3 6-2#234Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-3#171Joel Schwaerzler

2-6 6-4 6-2#272Philip Henning

6-3 6-7(7) 6-2#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#147Stefano Travaglia

6-4 6-3#207Francesco Passaro

6-4 6-2#236Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-4#490Niels Mcdonald

7-5 4-6 6-3#393Samuele Pieri

6-3 3-6 6-3#257Felix Balshaw

6-4 6-2#339Marko Topo

6-4 4-6 6-4#510Miguel Tobon

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SKSandro KoppKopp

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Martin KrumichKrumichMK

Sandro Kopp carries the stronger recent form — Martin Krumich's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In69.2%+15.2pp54.0%

1st Serve Won69.3%+2.4pp71.7%

2nd Serve Won53.0%+4.7pp48.3%

Aces / Match2.9+1.74.6

Double Faults / Match1.71.3 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.4%+1.8pp43.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted40.4%+4.6pp35.8%

Break Pts Saved58.2%+8.2pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.5%+1.0pp51.5%

Serve · 3–2

69.2%1st Serve In+15.2pp54.0%

69.3%1st Serve Won+2.4pp71.7%

53.0%2nd Serve Won+4.7pp48.3%

2.9Aces / Match+1.74.6

1.7Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

41.4%Return Pts Won+1.8pp43.2%

Pressure · 2–0

40.4%Break Pts Converted+4.6pp35.8%

58.2%Break Pts Saved+8.2pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won+1.0pp51.5%