Joel Schwaerzler vs Martin Krumich: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Krumich's superior recent form on clay (60% win rate) and stronger return game (42.3% return points won) give him a clear edge over Schwaerzler, who has struggled against similar-level opponents.
- Krumich has a 60% win rate (9-6) in his last 15 matches, all on clay, while Schwaerzler is at 35.7% (5-9) on clay in the same window.
- Krumich's return points won (42.3%) significantly outpaces Schwaerzler's (36.3%) over the last 15 clay matches, indicating a structural edge in breaking serve.
- Schwaerzler's break point save rate is 62.9% vs Krumich's 45.1%, but Krumich creates more break chances (156 faced vs 89) and converts at a similar rate (35.3% vs 36%).
- Career clay win percentage: Krumich 174-? (58.3% overall) vs Schwaerzler 79-? (54.4% overall), with Krumich having far more clay experience.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartin KrumichEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Schwaerzler's ability to keep matches close, even in defeat, makes him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap, as he has done in over 78% of his recent clay matches.
- Schwaerzler's average games won per match on clay: 12.0 (168/14), while Krumich's is 12.1 (181/15).
- In losses, Schwaerzler still averages 10.1 games won, covering +3.5 in 11 of 14 clay matches (78.6%).
- Krumich's margin of victory in wins is often narrow: 5 of his 9 wins were by 4 games or fewer.
- Head-to-head is non-existent, but both players' stats suggest a close match.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJoel Schwaerzler +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently engage in close, three-set battles on clay, pushing the average total games well above 21.5, making the over a strong probability.
- Average total games in Schwaerzler's last 14 clay matches: 22.9 (335 games / 14 matches).
- Average total games in Krumich's last 15 clay matches: 24.1 (361 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have a high rate of three-set matches: Schwaerzler 7 of 14 clay matches went to deciding set, Krumich 6 of 15.
- Combined average games per match: 23.5, with 13 of 29 matches (45%) exceeding 21.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The first set tends to be closely contested, with over 9.5 games occurring in nearly 60% of their recent matches, making the over a solid probability.
- Average games in first set for Schwaerzler's last 14 clay matches: 9.6 (135 games / 14 matches).
- Average games in first set for Krumich's last 15 clay matches: 9.7 (145 games / 15 matches).
- First set has gone over 9.5 games in 8 of Schwaerzler's 14 matches (57%) and 9 of Krumich's 15 (60%).
- Both players have similar first serve win percentages (~70%), leading to competitive opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krumich's tendency to start strong (53% first-set wins) combined with Schwaerzler's recent first-set struggles (35.7% win rate) makes Krumich a slight favorite to take the opening set.
- Krumich has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53.3%), while Schwaerzler has won it in 5 of 14 clay matches (35.7%).
- Schwaerzler's first set win conversion rate is 87% career, but his recent first-set performance is poor, losing the opener in 9 of his last 14 clay matches.
- Krumich's return points won (42.3%) suggests he can pressure Schwaerzler's serve early, which has a first serve in rate of only 58.8% on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMartin KrumichEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
With nearly half of their recent matches going the distance, the probability of a three-setter is above 50%, supporting an Over 2.5 total sets bet.
- Schwaerzler has played three sets in 50% of his last 14 clay matches.
- Krumich has played three sets in 40% of his last 15 clay matches.
- Combined, 13 of their last 29 matches (44.8%) have gone to a deciding set.
- Both players have similar break point conversion rates (~36%), suggesting extended sets are likely.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3 double faults per match, making a combined total of over 5.5 likely in more than half of their matches, though the edge is slim.
- Schwaerzler averages 3.2 double faults per match on clay.
- Krumich averages 3.2 double faults per match on clay.
- Combined average: 6.4 double faults per match, with both players consistently around 3 per match.
- In 14 clay matches, Schwaerzler has had 3+ double faults in 10 matches; Krumich in 9 of 15.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Joel Schwaerzler #183Austria0Martin Krumich #261Czechia2

Player Profiles

Joel Schwaerzler

Martin Krumich

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Martin Krumich

Over 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Joel Schwaerzler @ 1.65

Joel Schwaerzler

Martin Krumich

Stat Battle