Martin Krumich #260Czechia22 – 1Philip Henning #2941

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Krumich holds a surface-fit edge with stronger recent and career clay stats, plus home-country context, while Henning's clay form is notably weaker in the last 8 matches.

• Krumich last15 on clay: 8-7 record, 50.6% total points won, 42.5% return points won (15 matches tracked).
• Henning last15 on clay: 3-5 record, 47.9% total points won, 38.7% return points won (8 matches tracked).
• Krumich career clay win% 60.5% (173-113); Henning career clay win% 50% (24-24).
• Krumich recent form: 5-5 last 10, with wins over Passaro (rank 200) and Ferreira Silva (235); Henning 4-6 last 10, with losses to Balshaw (246) and Santamarta Roig (727).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player dominates on serve, and Krumich's matches consistently exceed 21.5 games, suggesting a competitive match with multiple breaks.

• Krumich last15 clay matches: average 24.3 games per match (182 games in 15 matches).
• Henning last8 clay matches: average 21.0 games per match (168 games in 8 matches), but 5 of 8 went over 21.5 games.
• Both players have moderate serve/return profiles: Krumich 69.7% first-serve points won, 42.5% return points won; Henning 61.6% first-serve points won, 38.7% return points won on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets often remain competitive given similar second-serve vulnerabilities, though sample size is limited.

• Krumich last15 clay: 10 of 15 second sets had 10+ games; Henning last8 clay: 5 of 8 second sets had 10+ games.
• Both players' second-serve points won on clay are below 50%, leading to extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server on clay, and their combined ace rate sits right at the line, making under 8.5 likely in a Bo3 match.

• Krumich last15 clay: 4.0 aces per match; Henning last8 clay: 4.0 aces per match.
• Combined average aces per match: 8.0, with both players' first-serve percentages below 64% on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Krumich's elevated double-fault rate on clay (3.3 per match) combined with Henning's moderate rate makes over 5.5 plausible.

• Krumich last15 clay: 3.3 double faults per match; Henning last8 clay: 2.6 double faults per match.
• Combined average: 5.9 double faults per match, with Krumich's higher rate pushing the total.