United StatesATP US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Braden Shick #219United States2Clement Tabur #163France0

Sets 6-4 · 7-5Tue 25 Aug 2026, 15:04 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–183%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageClement Tabur · 56 places

Braden Shick

United States

Reliable public profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing style was limited. Use structured recent-form and hard-court data as the main context.

Current ranking: #219
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Clement Tabur

France

Reliable current profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing style was limited. Use structured recent-form and hard-court data as the main context.

Current ranking: #163
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 16:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Shick's dominant hard-court form (30-9 in 2026) outweighs Tabur's ranking edge, making him the likely winner.

Back Shick to win the match and the first set, and consider the over on total games given both players' recent match lengths.

Context

Shick last 15 on hard: 10-4 record, 53.8% games won.
- Tabur 2026 hard-court record: 2-2, with limited recent hard-court data.
- Shick's 2026 hard-court season record is 30-9, showing consistent success on this surface.
Tabur's last 15 matches: 10 on clay, 5 on grass, 0 on hard.
- His last hard-court match was in early 2026, so he lacks recent hard-court rhythm.
- Tabur's career hard-court win rate is 60.1%, but recent form on other surfaces may not translate immediately.
Shick career first-set win conversion: 94%.
- In his last 15 hard-court matches, Shick won the first set in 10 of 14 matches.
- Tabur's first-set win conversion is 89%, slightly lower but still strong.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Shick's superior recent hard-court record and surface fit outweigh Tabur's ranking edge, making him the likely winner.
- Shick last 15 on hard: 10-4 record, 53.8% games won, 51.8% total points won
- Tabur last 15 overall: 8-7 record, 50.4% games won, 50.8% total points won
- Shick 2026 hard-court season: 30-9; Tabur 2026 hard-court season: 2-2
- Shick ranking 219 vs Tabur 163, but Shick's recent hard-court form is stronger
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBraden ShickEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths suggest a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 total games.
- Shick last 15 average games per match: 22.1 (331 games / 15 matches)
- Tabur last 15 average games per match: 27.0 (405 games / 15 matches)
- Shick hard-court matches often go to 20+ games
- Tabur's recent matches include several three-setters
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set scores for both players indicate a high likelihood of a competitive opening set exceeding 9.5 games.
- Shick recent hard matches: 6-2, 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-7(5), 5-7 first sets
- Tabur recent matches: 4-6, 7-5, 1-6, 6-7(9), 4-6 first sets
- Both players have had close first sets in recent form
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Shick's high first-set conversion rate and strong hard-court form give him an edge in the opening set.
- Shick first-set win conversion career: 94%
- Shick last 15 hard: 10-4 record, often starting strong
- Tabur first-set win conversion career: 89%
- Shick recent hard matches show consistent early leads
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBraden ShickEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates of both players on hard courts suggest a reasonable chance of exceeding 8.5 total aces.
- Shick last 15 aces per match: 4.3
- Tabur last 15 aces per match: 5.2
- Combined average aces per match: 9.5
- Hard courts typically produce more aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages are right at the line, making over 5.5 a coin-flip but slightly favored by match pressure.
- Shick last 15 double faults per match: 3.4
- Tabur last 15 double faults per match: 2.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.5
- Pressure situations in a Grand Slam qualifier may increase double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Braden Shick

10W 5L

6-2 6-2#159Mark Lajal

6-2 6-3#256Andres Andrade

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#226August Holmgren

6-7(5) 6-2 7-5#900Benjamin Thomas George

5-7 6-3 6-2#213Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-3#164Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-5 6-3#535Timo Legout

7-6(6) 6-4#315Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-4 4-1 ret.#400Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-1 6-2#324Fajing Sun

6-3 6-4#401Andrew Fenty

6-4 6-3#486Duncan Chan

6-1 2-6 6-3—William Manning

6-2 6-3#216Liam Draxl

7-5 7-6(6)#422Masamichi Imamura

Clement Tabur

8W 7L

4-6 6-4 6-4#208Henri Squire

7-5 6-3#879Orlando Luz

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#204Edas Butvilas

6-7(9) 7-6(5) 7-5#28Arthur Rinderknech

4-6 7-5 6-4#134Jurij Rodionov

6-4 7-6(3)#246Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 6-4#1046Hendrik Jebens

6-1 3-6 6-4#194Diego Dedura

1-6 7-5 2-6 6-3 6-1#112Shintaro Mochizuki

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#120Bu Yunchaokete

6-3 6-4#181Federico Agustin Gomez

1-6 7-6(10) 6-3#157Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-4#213Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-4#254Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-4#331Thomas Faurel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BSBraden ShickShick

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Clement TaburTaburCT

Clement Tabur carries the stronger recent form — Braden Shick's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In56.2%+4.4pp60.6%

1st Serve Won68.5%+3.5pp72.0%

2nd Serve Won51.8%+3.1pp54.9%

Aces / Match4.3+0.95.2

Double Faults / Match3.41.3 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.2%+4.1pp37.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.5%+12.9pp37.6%

Break Pts Saved53.2%+1.3pp54.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.3%—50.8%

Serve · 0–5

56.2%1st Serve In+4.4pp60.6%

68.5%1st Serve Won+3.5pp72.0%

51.8%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp54.9%

4.3Aces / Match+0.95.2

3.4Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

41.2%Return Pts Won+4.1pp37.1%

Pressure · 1–1

50.5%Break Pts Converted+12.9pp37.6%

53.2%Break Pts Saved+1.3pp54.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.3%Total Pts Won—50.8%