GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Dominik Recek #847Czechia0Benito Sanchez Martinez #847Germany2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Mon 24 Aug 2026, 08:50 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Dominik Recek

Czechia

Public profile sources identify him as a Czech right-handed player born on 19 February 1995. No reliable preferred-surface information was located in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #847
Peak ranking: #857 · 2026
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Benito Sanchez Martinez

Germany

German left-hander, born 30 April 2002. Public player profiles report a career-high singles ranking of No. 839 on 25 August 2025 and list hard as his preferred surface; no clearly sourced current injury or decline narrative appeared in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #847
Peak ranking: #839 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 22:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Recek holds a slight edge over Sanchez Martinez in this clay-court qualifier, backed by greater experience and a stronger recent win.

The match is expected to be close, with value on Recek to win and over 21.5 total games.

Context

In his last 15 matches, Recek beat #395 Kravchenko, #338 Topo, #306 Romano, #678 Tabacco, #878 Miletich, #799 Castagnola, and several unranked players.
- He lost to #619 Paulson, #194 Dedura, #513 Sultanov, #865 Poertner, and #377 Wiskandt.
- His 9-6 record is solid but built largely against lower-ranked opposition.
Sanchez Martinez last 15 on clay: 3.2 double faults per match (35 in 11 matches).
- Recek last 15 on clay: 1.6 double faults per match (21 in 13 matches).
- Sanchez Martinez's second serve points won is 48.1%, slightly lower than Recek's 49.2%.
Sanchez Martinez career deciding set win%: 70%.
- Recek career deciding set win%: 46%.
- Sanchez Martinez also has a higher career comeback rate (22% vs 14%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Recek's recent clay form is comparable but his higher-level win over Kravchenko and greater clay experience give him a slight edge in this qualifying match.
- Recek last 15 on clay: 9-6 record, 52.8% games won, 50.2% total points won
- Sanchez Martinez last 15 on clay: 7-4 record, 52.1% games won, 52.1% total points won
- Recek career clay win% 55.2 vs Sanchez Martinez 63.5, but Recek has far more clay matches (168 wins vs 35)
- Recek beat #395 Kravchenko in Q1; Sanchez Martinez beat #560 Beckley in Q1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDominik RecekEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have comparable serve and return stats, and their recent matches often feature close sets, making a longer match likely.
- Recek last 15 clay matches average 19.9 games per match (299 games / 15 matches)
- Sanchez Martinez last 15 clay matches average 19.4 games per match (213 games / 11 matches)
- Both players have similar break point save rates around 50-56%, suggesting competitive sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players have frequently exceeded 9.5 games, indicating competitive starts.
- Recek's last 5 clay matches: 10, 12, 12, 13, 13 games in first set
- Sanchez Martinez's last 5 clay matches: 8, 13, 12, 12, 13 games in first set
- Both players have first serve points won around 67% on clay, limiting early breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recek's strong first-set conversion and recent competitive sets against higher-ranked opponents support a narrow first-set edge.
- Recek first set win conversion career 87%
- Sanchez Martinez first set win conversion career 94%
- Both players have similar first serve points won on clay (67.8% vs 67.2%)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDominik RecekEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recek's serve is a weapon on clay, and combined ace counts often exceed 6.5 in his matches.
- Recek averages 4.0 aces per match on clay in last 15
- Sanchez Martinez averages 2.1 aces per match on clay in last 15
- Combined average is 6.1 aces per match, but Recek's height (191cm) and recent 4+ ace matches suggest upside
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sanchez Martinez's high double fault rate pushes the combined total over 4.5 in most matches.
- Recek averages 1.6 double faults per match on clay in last 15
- Sanchez Martinez averages 3.2 double faults per match on clay in last 15
- Combined average is 4.8 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Dominik Recek

9W 6L

5-7 7-5 6-3#395Georgii Kravchenko

7-5 6-3#619Andrew Paulson

7-5 6-2#194Diego Dedura

6-4 6-4#338Marko Topo

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#306Filippo Romano

6-3 6-2#513Khumoun Sultanov

6-1 6-2#865Lasse Poertner

6-1 6-3—Arian Barbic

6-4 7-5—Alexander Wagner

7-6(5) 6-3#377Max Wiskandt

7-6(2) 6-3#678Giorgio Tabacco

6-2 6-3#878Iannis Miletich

6-1 6-3#799Luca Castagnola

6-3 6-1—Tarek Erlewein

6-2 6-2—Armin Trklja

Benito Sanchez Martinez

8W 7L

6-2 6-2#560Alec Beckley

7-6(5) 6-1#845Alan Wazny

0-6 6-3 7-6(6)#327Marvin Moeller

6-1 6-3#526Oleksii Krutykh

7-6(1) 3-0 ret.#779Daniel Salazar Martinez

6-4 ret.#861Jakub Filip

6-3 6-3—Jannik Soetebier

4-6 6-4 7-5—Oliver Majdandzic

7-5 6-2#183Roberto Bautista Agut

6-1 3-6 7-6(4)#761Adhithya Ganesan

6-2 3-6 6-2—Romain Gales

6-3 6-2#401Andrew Fenty

6-1 6-1#156Zdenek Kolar

6-3 7-6(6)#230Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-3 7-5#397Daniel Masur

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DRDominik RecekRecek

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Benito Sanchez MartinezMartinezBM

Dominik Recek carries the stronger recent form — Benito Sanchez Martinez's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1563.1%+1.4pp61.7%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1567.8%—67.8%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1549.2%—49.2%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/154.0+1.32.7

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/151.61.4 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1540.0%+1.6pp41.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1543.4%+2.1pp45.5%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1556.5%+5.9pp50.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1550.2%+0.8pp51.0%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

63.1%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+1.4pp61.7%

67.8%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15—67.8%

49.2%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15—49.2%

4.0Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+1.32.7

1.6Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/151.4 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

40.0%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.6pp41.6%

Pressure · 1–1

43.4%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+2.1pp45.5%

56.5%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+5.9pp50.6%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+0.8pp51.0%