GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Georgii Kravchenko #388Ukraine1Dominik Recek #847Czechia2

Sets 7-5 · 5-7 · 3-6Sun 23 Aug 2026, 10:50 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions3–350%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGeorgii Kravchenko · 459 places

Georgii Kravchenko

Ukraine

Ukrainian right-hander born 28 July 2000. Public player pages list a career-best singles ranking of No. 371; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report was found in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #388
Peak ranking: #371
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Dominik Recek

Czechia

Public profile sources identify him as a Czech right-handed player born on 19 February 1995. No reliable preferred-surface information was located in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #847
Peak ranking: #857 · 2026
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 10:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Kravchenko is a slight favorite based on ranking and return stats, but recent form is even and Recek has upset higher-ranked players.

The match is likely to be close, so avoid the overpriced Kravchenko moneyline and look to totals markets like over 21.5 games.

Context

Lost to Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg (rank 891) 6-4 6-3 on 18 Aug 2026.
- Lost to Alex Barrena (rank 259) 6-4 6-4 on 11 Aug 2026.
- Lost to Jakub Nicod (rank 732) 6-4 6-1 on 27 Jul 2026.
Beat Marko Topo (rank 338) 6-4 6-4 on 3 Aug 2026.
- Beat Filippo Romano (rank 306) 7-6(6) 7-6(5) on 2 Aug 2026.
- Both wins came on clay in the same tournament.
Kravchenko last15 first serve in: 57.6% (594/1031).
- Recek last15 first serve in: 65.0% (511/786).
- Kravchenko wins 68.5% of first serve points, so a low first serve percentage reduces his service effectiveness.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Georgii Kravchenko

1.40fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Kravchenko's stronger return game and higher ranking give him a slight edge in a close clay-court qualifying match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Kravchenko's stronger return game and higher ranking give him a slight edge in a close clay-court qualifying match.
- Kravchenko last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Recek 8-7 (53.3%)
- Kravchenko last15 return points won 41.7% vs Recek 39.2%
- Kravchenko career clay win% 211-? (60.1% overall) vs Recek 167-? (55.1% overall)
- Kravchenko ranking 395 vs Recek 822
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGeorgii KravchenkoEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average games per match suggests a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Kravchenko last15 average games per match 21.6 (324 games / 15 matches)
- Recek last15 average games per match 18.9 (284 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 51%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 9.5 games per set, making over 9.5 in the first set a reasonable expectation.
- Kravchenko last15 average set games 9.5 (324 games / 34 sets)
- Recek last15 average set games 9.5 (284 games / 30 sets)
- Both players have similar set-level competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kravchenko's slightly better first-serve and break conversion rates support a narrow first-set advantage.
- Kravchenko first-set win conversion career 84% vs Recek 87%
- Kravchenko last15 first serve points won 68.5% vs Recek 67.3%
- Kravchenko last15 break points converted 42.7% vs Recek 39.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonGeorgii KravchenkoEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is just below the 3.5 line, supporting the under.
- Kravchenko last15 double faults per match 2.1
- Recek last15 double faults per match 1.3
- Combined average double faults per match 3.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages are just above the 7.5 line, suggesting a slight lean to the over.
- Kravchenko last15 aces per match 3.9
- Recek last15 aces per match 3.8
- Combined average aces per match 7.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The favorite is overpriced relative to recent form and matchup metrics.

Georgii Kravchenko

8W 7L

6-4 6-3#891Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg

6-4 6-4#259Alex Barrena

6-2 7-6(3)#854Stefano D'Agostino

6-2 6-3—Giammarco Gandolfi

6-4 6-1#732Jakub Nicod

3-6 6-3 6-4#665Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-4#423Mika Brunold

7-6(2) 6-3#271Juan Bautista Torres

6-1 4-6 6-3#779Daniel Salazar Martinez

6-4 6-2—Lorenzo Lorusso

6-4 6-0#233Guido Ivan Justo

6-4 6-1—Gabriele Crivellaro

6-3 4-6 6-2#424Norbert Gombos

6-3 6-4—Niccolo Ciavarella

7-5 6-3#549Fausto Tabacco

Dominik Recek

8W 7L

7-5 6-3#619Andrew Paulson

7-5 6-2#194Diego Dedura

6-4 6-4#338Marko Topo

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#306Filippo Romano

6-3 6-2#513Khumoun Sultanov

6-1 6-2#865Lasse Poertner

6-1 6-3—Arian Barbic

6-4 7-5—Alexander Wagner

7-6(5) 6-3#377Max Wiskandt

7-6(2) 6-3#678Giorgio Tabacco

6-2 6-3#878Iannis Miletich

6-1 6-3#799Luca Castagnola

6-3 6-1—Tarek Erlewein

6-2 6-2—Armin Trklja

6-3 6-3#729Aryan Shah

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GKGeorgii KravchenkoKravchenko

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Dominik RecekRecekDR

Georgii Kravchenko carries the stronger recent form — Dominik Recek's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1557.6%+7.4pp65.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1568.5%+1.2pp67.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1550.8%+3.9pp46.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/153.9—3.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/152.10.8 fewer1.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1541.7%+2.5pp39.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1542.7%+3.5pp39.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1557.4%—57.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1551.2%+1.7pp49.5%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

57.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+7.4pp65.0%

68.5%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+1.2pp67.3%

50.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+3.9pp46.9%

3.9Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15—3.8

2.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/150.8 fewer1.3

Return · 1–0

41.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+2.5pp39.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

42.7%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+3.5pp39.2%

57.4%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15—57.5%

Points · 1–0

51.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+1.7pp49.5%