GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Denis Yevseyev #439Kazakhstan0Svyatoslav Gulin #576Russia2

Sets 3-6 · 6-7Mon 24 Aug 2026, 08:35 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions4–267%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDenis Yevseyev · 137 places

Denis Yevseyev

Kazakhstan

Reached a career-high No. 153 on 22 July 2024. He is currently No. 439; no reliably sourced preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #439
Peak ranking: #153 · 2024
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Svyatoslav Gulin

Russia

Russian player born 4 December 2002. Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 358 in June 2025; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #576
Peak ranking: #358 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 22:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Gulin's superior recent clay form and stronger serve/return structure give him a clear edge over Yevseyev, but the betting line heavily favors him, offering negative value.

The match is likely to be competitive, with a lean toward over 21.5 total games and over 5.5 total aces.

Context

Gulin last15 clay record: 9-6 (60%)
- Yevseyev last15 clay record: 6-6 (50%)
- Gulin last15 total points won on clay: 53.1% vs Yevseyev 49.1%
Gulin last15 second serve points won: 55.6%
- Yevseyev last15 second serve points won: 41.4%
- Gulin also has a higher first serve points won: 70% vs 62.5%
Lost to Gerard Campana Lee (rank 546) 6-3 6-0 on clay
- Lost to Guy Den Ouden (rank 215) 6-3 6-0 on clay
- Lost to Dominic Stricker (rank 336) 6-2 6-3 on clay

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Svyatoslav Gulin

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Gulin's superior recent clay form and stronger serve/return structure give him a clear edge over Yevseyev.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Svyatoslav Gulin

1.36fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Gulin's stronger first-set record and first-serve effectiveness make him the likely set 1 winner.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Gulin's superior recent clay form and stronger serve/return structure give him a clear edge over Yevseyev.
- Gulin last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Yevseyev 7-8 (46.7%)
- Gulin last15 clay record 9-6 (60%) vs Yevseyev 6-6 (50%)
- Gulin last15 total points won 53.1% vs Yevseyev 49.1%
- Gulin last15 second serve points won 55.6% vs Yevseyev 41.4%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay match with both players holding serve reasonably well suggests a total games line above 21.5.
- Yevseyev last15 average 23.5 games per match
- Gulin last15 average 21.1 games per match
- Both players have similar average match durations around 94 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set game averages are near 9.5, making over 9.5 a reasonable lean.
- Yevseyev last15 first set average 9.8 games
- Gulin last15 first set average 9.5 games
- Both players have first serve points won above 60%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Gulin's stronger first-set record and first-serve effectiveness make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Gulin last15 first set win rate 60% (9/15) vs Yevseyev 46.7% (7/15)
- Gulin career first set win conversion 91%
- Gulin last15 first serve points won 70% vs Yevseyev 62.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 1.5 double faults per match, making under 3.5 total double faults likely.
- Yevseyev last15 double faults per match 1.3
- Gulin last15 double faults per match 1.5
- Combined expected double faults around 2.8 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's higher ace rate combined with Yevseyev's modest ace output supports over 5.5 total aces.
- Gulin last15 aces per match 3.5
- Yevseyev last15 aces per match 1.7
- Combined expected aces around 5.2 per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Denis Yevseyev

7W 8L

6-2 6-3#699Mirza Basic

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-4—Jannik Maute

6-3 6-4#756Matteo Covato

6-3 6-1#251Matej Dodig

7-5 7-5#646Saba Purtseladze

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5—Noel Larwig

6-4 4-6 6-1#282Yanki Erel

4-6 6-3 6-3#408Vadym Ursu

6-7(5) 6-1 6-3#635Tuncay Duran

6-2 6-3#336Dominic Stricker

6-3 6-0#215Guy Den Ouden

6-3 6-0#546Gerard Campana Lee

6-2 6-4—Leonardo Borrelli

3-6 6-1 6-3#359Andrey Chepelev

5-7 6-4 6-4#850Kenny de Schepper

Svyatoslav Gulin

9W 6L

7-6(4) 6-3#664Peter Fajta

6-3 3-6 6-2#808Jakub Paul

6-4 1-6 6-4#195Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 6-2#626Amit Vales

6-1 6-2—Augustin Damonte

6-4 6-3#235Kilian Feldbausch

6-1 3-6 6-1#605Pierre Delage

7-5 6-1#151Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 6-3#187David Jorda Sanchis

6-4 3-6 6-2#665Leo Raquillet

6-4 6-3#777Denys Klok

6-2 6-4—Dmytro Shirokyi

6-1 6-1—George Lazarov

7-6(1) 2-6 6-3#896Lorenzo Gagliardo

7-6(5) 6-4#887Alexandre Aubriot

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DYDenis YevseyevYevseyev

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Svyatoslav GulinGulinSG

Svyatoslav Gulin carries the stronger recent form — Denis Yevseyev's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In78.4%+17.0pp61.4%

1st Serve Won62.5%+7.5pp70.0%

2nd Serve Won41.4%+14.2pp55.6%

Aces / Match1.7+1.83.5

Double Faults / Match1.3—1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.5%+2.5pp43.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.6%+1.6pp42.0%

Break Pts Saved49.1%+9.4pp58.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+4.0pp53.1%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

78.4%1st Serve In+17.0pp61.4%

62.5%1st Serve Won+7.5pp70.0%

41.4%2nd Serve Won+14.2pp55.6%

1.7Aces / Match+1.83.5

1.3Double Faults / Match—1.5

Return · 0–1

40.5%Return Pts Won+2.5pp43.0%

Pressure · 1–1

43.6%Break Pts Converted+1.6pp42.0%

49.1%Break Pts Saved+9.4pp58.5%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+4.0pp53.1%