Denis Yevseyev vs Mirza Basic: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Yevseyev's recent clay-heavy schedule and slightly better surface consistency give him a moderate edge over Basic, who has mixed surfaces and a recent retirement.
- Yevseyev last15 on clay: 5-7 record, 45.6% games won, 48.4% total points won (12 matches tracked).
- Basic last15 on clay: 3-5 record, 46.8% games won, 48.6% total points won (8 matches tracked).
- Yevseyev has played 12 of his last 15 matches on clay; Basic only 8 of 15, with recent hard-court retirement on 2026-08-03.
- Yevseyev ranking 444 vs Basic 699; Yevseyev has stronger recent clay volume and similar surface stats.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDenis YevseyevEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar clay games-won percentages and have played multiple three-setters recently, making a longer match likely.
- Yevseyev last15 average duration 101.7 minutes; Basic 84.5 minutes.
- Yevseyev last15 clay matches: 45.6% games won, many three-set matches.
- Basic last15 clay matches: 46.8% games won, with several close scorelines.
- H2H 2021: Basic won 6-3 6-3 (18 games), but current form suggests more competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Basic's comparable games-won percentage and competitive recent matches make him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Yevseyev last15 games won 46.4%; Basic 48.5%.
- Yevseyev clay games won 45.6%; Basic clay games won 46.8%.
- Basic's slightly better games-won percentage suggests he can keep the match close.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMirza Basic +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players often reach 10+ games, supporting over 9.5 in set 1.
- Yevseyev last15 average games per set: 172 games / 38 sets = 4.53 games per set (but includes many lopsided sets).
- Basic last15 average games per set: 148 games / 32 sets = 4.63 games per set.
- Both players have had close first sets recently (e.g., Yevseyev 7-6, 7-5; Basic 7-5, 7-6).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are likely to be competitive given similar overall games-won percentages, but lower confidence due to potential momentum shifts.
- Yevseyev last15 second sets include 6-4, 7-5, 7-6 scores.
- Basic last15 second sets include 6-4, 7-6, 6-4 scores.
- Both players have similar games-won percentages, suggesting competitive second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yevseyev's higher first-serve percentage may help him start stronger, but Basic's better first-serve points won and break-point saving keep this a low-confidence lean.
- Yevseyev first-set win conversion career 83%; Basic 87%.
- Yevseyev last15 first serve in 78.7% vs Basic 66.0%.
- Yevseyev last15 first serve points won 61.6% vs Basic 66.2%.
- Yevseyev last15 break points saved 50.4% vs Basic 58.5%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDenis YevseyevEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double-fault rates on clay, making under 3.5 total double faults likely.
- Yevseyev last15 double faults per match 1.1; Basic 1.7.
- Yevseyev clay double faults per match 0.7; Basic clay 1.4.
- Combined average double faults on clay: 2.1, well under 3.5.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Denis Yevseyev #439Kazakhstan2Mirza Basic #699Bosnia & Herzegovina0

Player Profiles

Denis Yevseyev

Mirza Basic

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Denis Yevseyev

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Denis Yevseyev

Mirza Basic

Stat Battle