GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Peter Fajta #664Hungary0Svyatoslav Gulin #576Russia2

Sets 6-7 · 3-6Sun 23 Aug 2026, 08:35 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions4–180%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSvyatoslav Gulin · 88 places

Peter Fajta

Hungary

Hungarian player born 23 May 2002. ATP lists a career-high No. 477 on 19 September 2022; ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #664
Peak ranking: #477 · 2022
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Svyatoslav Gulin

Russia

Russian player born 4 December 2002. Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 358 in June 2025; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #576
Peak ranking: #358 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 10:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Gulin has the edge in recent form, return game, and clay pedigree, but his odds of 1.33 offer no value (model probability 62%).

The match is expected to be competitive, with a lean to over 21.5 total games, but no strong betting edges exist.

Context

Gulin last 15 return points won: 43.9% (458/1043).
- Fajta last 15 return points won: 39.0% (369/945).
- Gulin also converts break points at 43.2% vs Fajta's 36.1%.
Lost to Unknown Player (6-4 7-5) on 20 Aug.
- Lost to Jan Chlodnicki (7-6(5) 6-1) on 11 Aug.
- Lost to Pablo Martinez Gomez (rank 627) and Jonas Kucera (unranked) in July.
Gulin career clay record: 200-68 (74.6%).
- Fajta career clay record: 121-78 (60.8%).
- Gulin has played 268 career clay matches vs Fajta's 199.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Svyatoslav Gulin

1.33fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Gulin has a clear recent-form and return-game edge on clay, supported by a stronger career clay record.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Gulin has a clear recent-form and return-game edge on clay, supported by a stronger career clay record.
- Last 15 overall record: Gulin 9-6 (60%) vs Fajta 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 clay record: Gulin 9-6 (60%) vs Fajta 7-7 (50%)
- Last 15 return points won: Gulin 43.9% vs Fajta 39.0%
- Career clay win percentage: Gulin 200-68 (74.6%) vs Fajta 121-78 (60.8%)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is expected to be competitive, and both players' recent matches average around 21 games, suggesting a total over 21.5 is plausible.
- Fajta last 15 average games per match: 20.7
- Gulin last 15 average games per match: 20.7
- Both players have similar competitive recent matches with multiple three-setters
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average around 9-10 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Fajta last 15 first-set average games: 9.6
- Gulin last 15 first-set average games: 9.3
- Both players have played several tight first sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's superior recent set-winning rate and overall point dominance make him the likely first-set winner.
- Gulin first-set win conversion career: 91% vs Fajta 90%
- Gulin last 15 sets won: 60% vs Fajta 50%
- Gulin last 15 total points won: 53.1% vs Fajta 49.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fajta's high double fault rate pushes the combined average above the line, making over 4.5 slightly more likely.
- Fajta last 15 double faults per match: 3.3
- Gulin last 15 double faults per match: 1.5
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages are just below the line, but with a competitive match likely to go three sets, over 6.5 has a near-even chance.
- Fajta last 15 aces per match: 3.3
- Gulin last 15 aces per match: 3.1
- Combined average aces per match: 6.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Peter Fajta

7W 8L

6-4 7-5—Unknown Player

6-0 6-3—Lorenzo Ferri

7-6(5) 6-1—Jan Chlodnicki

7-6(3) 6-1#627Pablo Martinez Gomez

6-1 6-2—Jonas Kucera

2-6 7-5 6-2#780Aleksandr Braynin

6-2 7-6(3)—Gabor Hornung

6-7(7) 6-3 6-4—Ben Stecker

6-3 ret.#499Miguel Tobon

3-6 7-5 6-1#439Yannik Kelm

6-4 7-6(3)#688Andrea De Marchi

6-3 6-4—Timo Rosenkranz Koenig

6-2 6-3#313Dali Blanch

7-5 6-2#237Franco Roncadelli

6-3 7-5#528Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

Svyatoslav Gulin

9W 6L

6-3 3-6 6-2#808Jakub Paul

6-4 1-6 6-4#195Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 6-2#626Amit Vales

6-1 6-2—Augustin Damonte

6-4 6-3#235Kilian Feldbausch

6-1 3-6 6-1#605Pierre Delage

7-5 6-1#151Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 6-3#187David Jorda Sanchis

6-4 3-6 6-2#665Leo Raquillet

6-4 6-3#777Denys Klok

6-2 6-4—Dmytro Shirokyi

6-1 6-1—George Lazarov

7-6(1) 2-6 6-3#896Lorenzo Gagliardo

7-6(5) 6-4#887Alexandre Aubriot

6-3 6-2—Edoardo Zanada

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PFPeter FajtaFajta

Last 15

1–5

9 core stats · 3 even

Svyatoslav GulinGulinSG

Svyatoslav Gulin carries the stronger recent form — Peter Fajta's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In64.1%+1.8pp62.3%

1st Serve Won68.6%—69.1%

2nd Serve Won45.9%+8.9pp54.8%

Aces / Match3.3—3.1

Double Faults / Match3.31.8 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.0%+4.9pp43.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted36.1%+7.1pp43.2%

Break Pts Saved58.4%—58.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.8%+3.3pp53.1%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

64.1%1st Serve In+1.8pp62.3%

68.6%1st Serve Won—69.1%

45.9%2nd Serve Won+8.9pp54.8%

3.3Aces / Match—3.1

3.3Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

39.0%Return Pts Won+4.9pp43.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

36.1%Break Pts Converted+7.1pp43.2%

58.4%Break Pts Saved—58.3%

Points · 0–1

49.8%Total Pts Won+3.3pp53.1%