United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Lui Maxted #403United Kingdom0Lucas Poullain #369France2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Fri 21 Aug 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLucas Poullain · 34 places

Lui Maxted

United Kingdom

The British player reached a reported career-high singles ranking of No. 392 in March 2026. No reliable preferred-surface profile was found in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #403
Peak ranking: #392 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Lucas Poullain

France

French right-hander, born 5 December 1995. Public profile sources list a singles career high of No. 244; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #369
Peak ranking: #244
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Aug 2026, 03:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Lucas Poullain holds a slight edge over Lui Maxted due to a stronger return game and recent form, but the match is expected to be close.

The best betting angle is over 9.5 games in set one, with a 7.6-point edge at odds of 1.91.

Context

Poullain last 15 on hard: 43.6% return points won (13 matches tracked).
- Maxted last 15 on hard: 40.8% return points won (13 matches tracked).
- Poullain has won 7 of his last 8 matches, including wins over #248 and #267.
Maxted last 15 average total games per match: 23.9.
- Maxted has played three three-set matches in his last five outings.
- Poullain's average total games per match is 21.9, also above the 21.5 line.
Poullain double faults per match last 15: 1.1.
- Maxted double faults per match last 15: 3.5.
- Poullain's second serve points won is 50%, slightly higher than Maxted's 49.9%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Poullain's superior return game and recent high-level wins give him a slight edge on hard court.
- Poullain last 15 on hard: 9-4 record, 63.3% sets won, 55.9% games won
- Maxted last 15 on hard: 9-4 record, 59.4% sets won, 53.7% games won
- Poullain return points won on hard: 43.6% vs Maxted 40.8%
- Poullain has won 7 of last 8 matches, including wins over #248 and #267
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLucas PoullainEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average above 21.5 total games, suggesting a competitive match.
- Maxted last 15 average total games per match: 23.9
- Poullain last 15 average total games per match: 21.9
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first sets for both players average around 10 games, making over 9.5 likely.
- Maxted last 15 first set average games: 10.1
- Poullain last 15 first set average games: 9.8
- Both players have strong first-set win percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Poullain's strong recent starts and high first-set conversion rate support a first-set win.
- Poullain first set win conversion career: 88%
- Maxted first set win conversion career: 92%
- Poullain has won first set in 6 of last 8 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLucas PoullainEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Poullain's low double fault rate keeps the combined total under 4.5 in most matches.
- Maxted double faults per match last 15: 3.5
- Poullain double faults per match last 15: 1.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance65%

Previous match context available

Lui Maxted

10W 5L

7-5 6-4#441Adrian Boitan 6-4 4-6 7-5#812Patrick Brady 7-5 7-6(1)#286Matteo Martineau

6-1 7-5#289Charles Broom

7-5 4-6 6-1—Mark Ceban

6-2 6-7(4) 6-2#874Marcus Walters

5-7 6-2 6-3—Rhys Lawlor

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)—Billy Blaydes

7-5 6-4—Clement Lemire

3-6 7-5 6-1—Louis Larue

7-6(7) 6-2#832Benjamin Pietri

6-3 6-4#542Ivan Ivanov

6-3 6-1#341Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 6-3#525Daniil Ostapenkov

6-3 6-3—Nikola Djukic Valera

Lucas Poullain

9W 6L

6-7(5) 6-3 7-5#348Michael Geerts 6-4 6-2#457Viktor Durasovic 6-0 7-6(5)#248Max Basing

5-7 6-2 6-3#267Ilia Simakin

6-1 6-0#341Gijs Brouwer

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#495Kenta Miyoshi

7-5 7-5#557Alexandr Binda

6-4 6-1#223Dan Added

7-5 2-6 6-2#223Dan Added

7-5 6-3#750Isaac Becroft

7-6(5) 6-2#408Vadym Ursu

7-6(6) 6-2#893Mathieu Scaglia

6-1 6-2#580Paul Inchauspe

7-5 6-2#230Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-4 6-3#353Raphael Perot

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LMLui MaxtedMaxted

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Lucas PoullainPoullainLP

Lui Maxted carries the stronger recent form — Lucas Poullain's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.9%+0.9pp66.0%

1st Serve Won68.2%+3.1pp65.1%

2nd Serve Won49.9%—50.0%

Aces / Match3.2+0.72.5

Double Faults / Match3.52.4 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.7%+2.2pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.2%+2.0pp47.2%

Break Pts Saved65.7%+4.7pp61.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.5%—51.4%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

66.9%1st Serve In+0.9pp66.0%

68.2%1st Serve Won+3.1pp65.1%

49.9%2nd Serve Won—50.0%

3.2Aces / Match+0.72.5

3.5Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

40.7%Return Pts Won+2.2pp42.9%

Pressure · 1–1

45.2%Break Pts Converted+2.0pp47.2%

65.7%Break Pts Saved+4.7pp61.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.5%Total Pts Won—51.4%