United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Lui Maxted #403United Kingdom2Adrian Boitan #441Romania0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Thu 20 Aug 2026, 10:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLui Maxted · 38 places

Lui Maxted

United Kingdom

The British player reached a reported career-high singles ranking of No. 392 in March 2026. No reliable preferred-surface profile was found in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #403
Peak ranking: #392 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Gabi Adrian Boitan

Romania

Romanian, born 11 July 1999. The ITF lists a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 284 on 23 February 2026 and names hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #441
Peak ranking: #284 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Aug 2026, 03:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Maxted's superior hard-court form and return game make him the likely winner, but the odds offer little value.

The over on total games (21.5) and double faults (7.5) are better betting angles, while Boitan is a risky underdog due to his thin hard-court record and high double-fault rate.

Context

Maxted last 15 on hard: 9-4 (69.2%) vs Boitan 2-2 (50%).
- Maxted hard-court return points won: 41.4% vs Boitan 34.4%.
- Maxted's last two wins came against #286 and #812, while Boitan's hard-court wins were against #270 and #464.
Boitan hard-court record last 15: 2-2 (50%), with only 4 matches tracked.
- Boitan hard-court return points won: 34.4%, significantly lower than Maxted's 41.4%.
- Boitan double faults per match overall: 5.1, compared to Maxted's 3.8.
Maxted last 15: 6 three-set matches out of 15 (40%).
- Boitan last 15: 7 three-set matches out of 15 (47%).
- Maxted average games per match: 23.8; Boitan average games per match: 23.2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Lui Maxted

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Maxted's stronger recent hard-court form and return numbers justify favoritism, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Maxted has stronger recent form and hard-court fit, with a higher win rate and better return numbers in the last 15 matches.
- Last 15 overall record: Maxted 10-5 (66.7%) vs Boitan 8-7 (53.3%)
- Last 15 on hard: Maxted 9-4 (69.2%) vs Boitan 2-2 (50%)
- Maxted last 5: 4-1, including wins over #286 and #812; Boitan last 5: 2-3
- Maxted return points won last 15: 41.2% vs Boitan 39.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLui MaxtedEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 23 games, and their competitive hard-court form suggests a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Maxted last 15 average games per match: 23.8 (357 games / 15 matches)
- Boitan last 15 average games per match: 23.2 (348 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average close to 10 games in the first set, making over 9.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Maxted last 15 first set average games: 9.7 (145 games / 15 sets)
- Boitan last 15 first set average games: 9.5 (142 games / 15 sets)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Maxted's superior recent hard-court form and higher first-set conversion rate give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Maxted first set win conversion career: 92%
- Boitan first set win conversion career: 84%
- Maxted last 15 first serve points won: 67.8% vs Boitan 71.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLui MaxtedEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a high frequency of three-set matches recently, suggesting a decent chance this match goes the distance.
- Maxted last 15: 6 three-set matches out of 15 (40%)
- Boitan last 15: 7 three-set matches out of 15 (47%)
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3.5 double faults per match, and Boitan's high rate makes over 7.5 likely.
- Maxted last 15 double faults per match: 3.8
- Boitan last 15 double faults per match: 5.1
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages are close to 7.5, and a three-set match could push the total over.
- Maxted last 15 aces per match: 2.9
- Boitan last 15 aces per match: 3.8
- Combined average aces per match: 6.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Lui Maxted

10W 5L

6-4 4-6 7-5#812Patrick Brady 7-5 7-6(1)#286Matteo Martineau

6-1 7-5#289Charles Broom

7-5 4-6 6-1—Mark Ceban

6-2 6-7(4) 6-2#874Marcus Walters

5-7 6-2 6-3—Rhys Lawlor

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)—Billy Blaydes

7-5 6-4—Clement Lemire

3-6 7-5 6-1—Louis Larue

7-6(7) 6-2#832Benjamin Pietri

6-3 6-4#542Ivan Ivanov

6-3 6-1#341Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 6-3#525Daniil Ostapenkov

6-3 6-3—Nikola Djukic Valera

6-2 7-5#620Alberto Barroso Campos

Adrian Boitan

8W 7L

4-6 6-3 6-2#270Alastair Gray 6-3 7-6(2)#464Christian Langmo

5-7 6-3 6-4#267Ilia Simakin

4-6 6-2 6-2#690Gabriel Debru

6-4 6-7(4) 6-3#236Juan Pablo Varillas

2-6 7-5 6-2—Semen Aginskiy

6-0 7-5—Vlad Cristian Breazu

4-6 6-3 3-0 ret.#829Dan Alexandru Tomescu

7-5 6-4—Cezar Gabriel Papoe

3-6 6-4 6-4#649Radu David Turcanu

6-2 6-1#880Mihai Razvan Marinescu

7-6(2) 6-1—David - Ioan Morega

6-3 ret.—Pablo Perez Navarro

6-2 6-3#880Mihai Razvan Marinescu

6-3 3-6 7-5#595Nathaniel Lammons

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LMLui MaxtedMaxted

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Adrian BoitanBoitanAB

Lui Maxted carries the stronger recent form — Adrian Boitan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.0%+3.1pp62.9%

1st Serve Won67.8%+3.3pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won50.1%—50.0%

Aces / Match2.9+0.93.8

Double Faults / Match3.81.3 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.2%+2.0pp39.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.2%+6.9pp39.3%

Break Pts Saved65.1%+3.3pp68.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.6%—51.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

66.0%1st Serve In+3.1pp62.9%

67.8%1st Serve Won+3.3pp71.1%

50.1%2nd Serve Won—50.0%

2.9Aces / Match+0.93.8

3.8Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

41.2%Return Pts Won+2.0pp39.2%

Pressure · 1–1

46.2%Break Pts Converted+6.9pp39.3%

65.1%Break Pts Saved+3.3pp68.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.6%Total Pts Won—51.3%