GermanyHamburg - GermanyRET

Predictions graded

Carlos Taberner #409Spain0Jan Kumstat #336Czechia1

Sets 5-7Fri 14 Aug 2026, 12:50 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–260%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJan Kumstat · 73 places

Carlos Taberner

Spain

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 83 on 4 August 2025. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #409
Peak ranking: #83 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Jan Kumstat

Czechia

Nineteen-year-old Czech right-hander with a two-handed backhand, standing 196 cm. He reached career-high No. 336 in August 2026 and is listed as preferring hard courts.

Current ranking: #336
Peak ranking: #336 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Aug 2026, 06:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Jan Kumstat is in dominant form with a 13-2 record in his last 15 matches and superior serve stats, making him a strong favorite over Carlos Taberner.

Back Kumstat to win the match and the first set, and consider over 9.5 games in the first set as both players often play tight openers.

Context

Kumstat last 15 first serve points won: 81% vs Taberner 67.4%.
- Kumstat last 15 break points saved: 73.8% vs Taberner 57%.
- Kumstat averages 9.1 aces per match in his last 15, compared to Taberner's 2.5.
Taberner last 15 clay record: 7-6 (53.8%).
- Taberner won his last two matches, including a 6-7(5) 6-4 3-0 ret. win over Andrej Nedic.
- Taberner's last 15 overall record is 7-8 (46.7%).
Kumstat last 15 first serve in: 56.1%.
- Kumstat last 15 second serve points won: 59.5%.
- Taberner last 15 return points won on clay: 44.6%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kumstat's dominant recent form and superior serve/return structure on clay give him a clear edge over Taberner.
- Last 15 overall record: 13-2 (86.7%) vs Taberner 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 clay record: 13-2 (86.7%) vs Taberner 7-6 (53.8%)
- Last 15 first serve points won: 81% vs 67.4%
- Last 15 break points saved: 73.8% vs 57%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJan KumstatEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 total games, suggesting a competitive match with a high game count.
- Taberner last 15 average total games per match: 23.0
- Kumstat last 15 average total games per match: 22.8
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players tend to have close first sets, with Kumstat's tiebreak frequency supporting an over on games.
- Taberner last 15 first set average games: 9.8
- Kumstat last 15 first set average games: 9.5
- Kumstat has played tiebreaks in 4 of last 15 first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kumstat's superior recent form and serving stats support a handicap cover of -3.5 games.
- Kumstat last 15 average games won per match: 13.5
- Taberner last 15 average games lost per match: 11.1
- Kumstat has won 9 of last 15 matches by 4+ games
BetBugs · Game Handicapnot gradableJan Kumstat -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kumstat's strong serving and early-set dominance make him likely to take the opening set.
- Kumstat last 15 first set win rate: 12/15 (80%)
- Taberner last 15 first set win rate: 7/15 (47%)
- Kumstat first serve points won: 81% vs Taberner 67.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJan KumstatEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kumstat's high ace rate alone should push the total aces over 8.5, with Taberner contributing a few.
- Kumstat last 15 aces per match: 9.1
- Taberner last 15 aces per match: 2.5
- Kumstat has 137 aces in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches suggests at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Kumstat has played a tiebreak in 7 of last 15 matches
- Taberner has played a tiebreak in 5 of last 15 matches
- Both players have tiebreak win rates above 50%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Taberner's high double fault rate and Kumstat's moderate rate combine to make over 6.5 likely.
- Taberner last 15 double faults per match: 4.9
- Kumstat last 15 double faults per match: 2.8
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Carlos Taberner

7W 8L

6-7(5) 6-4 3-0 ret.#246Andrej Nedic

5-7 6-2 6-3#407Olle Wallin

7-6(4) 7-5#184Elmer Moller

3-6 6-3 6-3#346Marko Topo

6-2 6-0#266Juan Bautista Torres

6-4 6-1#223Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 6-0 6-3#88Lorenzo Sonego

6-3 6-2#89Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 3-6 6-3#469Ivan Gakhov

6-0 6-1#399Stefan Palosi

6-2 2-6 7-6(4)#145Tomas Barrios Vera

7-6(2) 6-3#154Zdenek Kolar

6-0 6-2#173Gonzalo Bueno

2-6 7-5 6-4#223Genaro Alberto Olivieri

4-6 6-3 6-4#151Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Jan Kumstat

13W 2L

6-4 7-6(4)#242Max Houkes

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#573Jamie Mackenzie

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#900Tom Zeuch

6-2 7-6(3)#859Alan Wazny

6-3 6-1#173Gonzalo Bueno

7-5 6-4#235Sumit Nagal

6-4 7-5#228Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-2#200Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-2 4-6 6-3#154Zdenek Kolar

1-6 7-6(1) 6-2#359Mathys Erhard

6-4 6-2#888Yuichiro Inui

7-5 6-4#185Tom Gentzsch

6-1 6-1#483Thijs Boogaard

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#290Florian Broska

6-3 6-1#211Henri Squire

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CTCarlos TabernerTaberner

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Jan KumstatKumstatJK

Jan Kumstat carries the stronger recent form — Carlos Taberner's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In61.2%+5.1pp56.1%

1st Serve Won67.4%+13.6pp81.0%

2nd Serve Won46.2%+13.3pp59.5%

Aces / Match2.5+6.69.1

Double Faults / Match4.92.1 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.8%+2.0pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.6%+8.0pp33.6%

Break Pts Saved57.0%+16.8pp73.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.9%+4.0pp54.9%

Serve · 1–4

61.2%1st Serve In+5.1pp56.1%

67.4%1st Serve Won+13.6pp81.0%

46.2%2nd Serve Won+13.3pp59.5%

2.5Aces / Match+6.69.1

4.9Double Faults / Match2.1 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

42.8%Return Pts Won+2.0pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

41.6%Break Pts Converted+8.0pp33.6%

57.0%Break Pts Saved+16.8pp73.8%

Points · 0–1

50.9%Total Pts Won+4.0pp54.9%