GermanyHamburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Jan Kumstat #336Czechia2Max Houkes #242Netherlands0

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Thu 13 Aug 2026, 08:45 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–350%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Houkes · 94 places

Jan Kumstat

Czechia

Nineteen-year-old Czech right-hander with a two-handed backhand, standing 196 cm. He reached career-high No. 336 in August 2026 and is listed as preferring hard courts.

Current ranking: #336
Peak ranking: #336 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Max Houkes

Netherlands

Dutch left-hander, born 3 July 2000. Available ranking-history data places his career best at No. 231 in June 2026; no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #242
Peak ranking: #231 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 00:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Jan Kumstat’s blistering clay-court form (13-2 in last 15) and superior serve/return metrics give him a decisive edge over the inconsistent Max Houkes.

Back Kumstat to win outright and in straight sets, with the match likely staying under 21.5 games.

Context

Kumstat's last-15 record is 13-2, all on clay, with a 59.9% games-won rate.
- He has won 10 of his last 13 wins in straight sets, showing efficiency.
- Recent victories include a 6-1, 6-1 demolition of Thijs Boogaard and a 6-3, 6-1 win over Henri Squire.
Houkes' last-15 record is 6-9, with a 45.7% sets-won rate.
- He lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%).
- Recent losses include a 6-0, 6-2 defeat to Inaki Montes-De La Torre and a three-set loss to Patrick Zahraj (ranked 408).
Kumstat averages 8.9 aces per match in his last 15, compared to Houkes' 4.0.
- Kumstat wins 80.5% of first-serve points; Houkes wins 70.4%.
- Kumstat's return points won is 41.1%, while Houkes' is 35.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kumstat's dominant recent form (13-2 in last 15, all on clay) and superior serve/return metrics (55.1% total points won vs. 49.5%) give him a clear edge over Houkes, who has struggled for consistency.
- Kumstat has won 13 of his last 15 matches (86.7%), all on clay, with a 59.9% games-won rate.
- Houkes has won only 6 of his last 15 matches (40%), with a 50.1% games-won rate; on clay he is 6-7 in his last 13.
- Kumstat's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., Gonzalo Bueno #173, Sumit Nagal #235) while Houkes has losses to players ranked outside the top 200.
- Kumstat holds a 77.1% sets-won rate in his last 15 matches vs. Houkes' 45.7%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJan KumstatEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Kumstat's ability to win in straight sets with comfortable scorelines, and Houkes' vulnerability in one-sided losses, the match is likely to stay under 21.5 games.
- Kumstat's last 15 matches average 22.5 total games, but 8 of his last 10 wins have finished under 21.5 games.
- Houkes' last 15 matches average 22.7 total games, but his losses often end quickly (e.g., 6-0 6-2 vs. Montes-De La Torre).
- Kumstat's dominant wins (6-1 6-1, 6-3 6-1) suggest he can close out matches efficiently against weaker form.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have seen relatively short first sets recently, and Kumstat's strong serve/return numbers increase the chance of a quick opener.
- Kumstat's last 5 first sets: 6-7, 3-6, 6-2, 6-3, 7-5 — average 9.6 games, but 3 of 5 under 9.5.
- Houkes' last 5 first sets: 7-5, 3-6, 2-6, 4-6, 6-3 — average 9.2 games, with 3 under 9.5.
- Kumstat's first-serve points won (80.5%) and return points won (41.1%) suggest he can dominate early.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Kumstat's fast starts (80% first-set wins in recent window) contrast with Houkes' tendency to drop the opener, making Kumstat the likely set 1 winner.
- Kumstat has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%), including his last 5 matches.
- Houkes has lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%), including 4 of his last 5.
- Kumstat's first-set win conversion rate is 90% career, indicating strong front-running ability.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJan KumstatEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Kumstat's high straight-sets win rate and Houkes' frequent straight-sets losses point to a 2-0 victory for Kumstat.
- Kumstat has won in straight sets in 10 of his last 13 wins (77%).
- Houkes has lost in straight sets in 6 of his last 9 losses (67%).
- Kumstat's sets-won rate of 77.1% far exceeds Houkes' 45.7%.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonJan Kumstat 2-0Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With Kumstat's strong hold game and both players' low tiebreak frequency, a tiebreak is less likely than not.
- Kumstat's last 15 matches: only 4 tiebreaks played (27% of matches).
- Houkes' last 15 matches: 5 tiebreaks played (33% of matches).
- Kumstat's dominant service games (80.5% first-serve points won) reduce tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average sits below 5.5, making the under a reasonable expectation.
- Kumstat averages 2.7 double faults per match; Houkes averages 2.3.
- Combined average: 5.0 double faults per match, under the 5.5 line.
- Both players have moderate double-fault rates, with no recent spikes.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages just exceed 12.5, and with Kumstat's high ace count, the over is marginally favored.
- Kumstat averages 8.9 aces per match in his last 15; Houkes averages 4.0.
- Combined average aces per match: 12.9, slightly above the 12.5 line.
- Kumstat's ace rate is high on clay (8.9 per match), and Houkes' lefty serve could add a few aces.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Jan Kumstat has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 6 matches where Jan Kumstat was predicted to win, he fulfilled 5 predictions. The average estimated probability was 58.3%, with an expected 3.5 wins, yet he delivered 5, exceeding expectations. The only miss came as an away loss to Tom Gentzsch, while all home predictions were successful.

Recent evidence for Jan Kumstat6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Liberec - Czech Republic

#508Jan Kumstat2-0#246Sumit Nagal

BetBugsJan Kumstat to win·55%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#508Jan Kumstat2-0#246Sumit Nagal

Jan Kumstat to win

55%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Matched

31 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#508Jan Kumstat2-0#235Frederico Ferreira Silva

BetBugsJan Kumstat to win·62%

Matched

31 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#508Jan Kumstat2-0#235Frederico Ferreira Silva

Jan Kumstat to win

62%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Matched

27 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#154Zdenek Kolar1-2#509Jan Kumstat

BetBugsJan Kumstat to win·55%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#154Zdenek Kolar1-2#509Jan Kumstat

Jan Kumstat to win

55%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Matched

18 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#612Jan Kumstat

BetBugsJan Kumstat to win·58%

Missed

18 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#612Jan Kumstat

Jan Kumstat to win

58%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Missed

17 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#612Jan Kumstat2-0#529Thijs Boogaard

BetBugsJan Kumstat to win·62%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#612Jan Kumstat2-0#529Thijs Boogaard

Jan Kumstat to win

62%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Matched

Previous match context available

Jan Kumstat

13W 2L

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#573Jamie Mackenzie

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#900Tom Zeuch

6-2 7-6(3)#859Alan Wazny

6-3 6-1#173Gonzalo Bueno

7-5 6-4#235Sumit Nagal

6-4 7-5#228Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-2#200Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-2 4-6 6-3#154Zdenek Kolar

1-6 7-6(1) 6-2#359Mathys Erhard

6-4 6-2#888Yuichiro Inui

7-5 6-4#185Tom Gentzsch

6-1 6-1#483Thijs Boogaard

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#290Florian Broska

6-3 6-1#211Henri Squire

6-3 6-3#447Mateus Alves

Max Houkes

6W 9L

7-5 6-2#235Sumit Nagal

6-3 7-6(4)#205Jerome Kym

2-6 6-4 6-4#120Vilius Gaubas

6-4 3-6 6-2#188Roberto Carballes Baena

3-6 6-3 6-4#408Patrick Zahraj

6-1 7-6(5)#592Imanol Lopez Morillo

6-1 7-5#604Stefan Popovic

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#185Tom Gentzsch

6-4 6-1#312Max Schoenhaus

6-3 6-1#186David Jorda Sanchis

6-4 7-5#207Laslo Djere

4-6 6-3 7-6(4)#100Martin Damm

6-4 7-6(3)#106Emilio Nava

7-6(5) 6-2#170Marco Cecchinato

6-0 6-2#269Inaki Montes-De La Torre

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JKJan KumstatKumstat

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Max HoukesHoukesMH

Jan Kumstat carries the stronger recent form — Max Houkes's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In56.3%+7.1pp63.4%

1st Serve Won80.5%+10.1pp70.4%

2nd Serve Won60.2%+6.0pp54.2%

Aces / Match8.9+4.94.0

Double Faults / Match2.70.4 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.1%+5.6pp35.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted35.4%+1.0pp34.4%

Break Pts Saved74.4%+12.6pp61.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.1%+5.6pp49.5%

Serve · 3–2

56.3%1st Serve In+7.1pp63.4%

80.5%1st Serve Won+10.1pp70.4%

60.2%2nd Serve Won+6.0pp54.2%

8.9Aces / Match+4.94.0

2.7Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

41.1%Return Pts Won+5.6pp35.5%

Pressure · 2–0

35.4%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp34.4%

74.4%Break Pts Saved+12.6pp61.8%

Points · 1–0

55.1%Total Pts Won+5.6pp49.5%

Jan Kumstat

Max Houkes

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jan Kumstat

Jan Kumstat

Jan Kumstat 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Jan Kumstat

Max Houkes

Stat Battle