United StatesBrownsburg - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Harry Wendelken #201United Kingdom2Borna Gojo #163Croatia1

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 6-1Tue 11 Aug 2026, 14:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBorna Gojo · 38 places

Harry Wendelken

United Kingdom

A 178 cm British right-hander, Wendelken reached a career-high No. 201 on 3 August 2026. His 2026 season included his ATP and Wimbledon main-draw debuts.

Current ranking: #201
Peak ranking: #201 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Borna Gojo

Croatia

A 196 cm Croatian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 72 on 20 November 2023. The supplied structured feed lists his current ranking at No. 163.

Current ranking: #163
Peak ranking: #72 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Aug 2026, 13:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Borna Gojo's dominant hard-court serve (11.8 aces/match, 80.5% first-serve points won) gives him a clear edge over Harry Wendelken's poor recent form (1-3 on hard).

The best betting angles are Gojo to win and the total aces over 14.5, while the straight-sets win offers value but carries risk due to Gojo's recent three-set matches.

Context

Gojo last15 hard: 7-2 record, 11.8 aces per match, 80.5% first-serve points won.
- Wendelken last15 hard: 1-3 record, 3.3 aces per match, 67.5% first-serve points won.
- Gojo's serve dominance translates into saving 66.7% of break points on hard courts.
Wendelken last15 hard: 1-3 record, 48.6% first-serve in, 46.4% break points saved.
- His only hard-court win in this window was a retirement against Murphy Cassone.
- Wendelken's last five matches include three grass-court losses and one clay loss, with no hard-court wins since April.
Gojo's last three hard-court matches: 6-4 2-6 7-6(3) loss to Gorzny (No. 876), 6-4 4-6 6-4 win over Gill, 6-2 6-4 loss to Suresh (No. 393).
- Gojo's break-point conversion rate on hard is only 35.4%, limiting his ability to close in straight sets.
- Wendelken has pushed higher-ranked opponents to three sets on hard recently (e.g., Kotov, Rice).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Gojo's dominant recent hard-court form (77.8% win rate, 80.5% first-serve points won) and massive serve advantage (11.8 aces/match) give him a clear edge over Wendelken's 25% hard-court win rate in the last 15 matches.
- Gojo last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Wendelken 4-11 (26.7%)
- Gojo last15 hard record 7-2 (77.8%), Wendelken 1-3 (25%)
- Gojo last15 hard aces per match 11.8, Wendelken 3.3
- Gojo last15 hard first serve points won 80.5%, Wendelken 67.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court sets average near or above 10 games, and Gojo's tiebreak frequency supports a competitive first set over 9.5 games.
- Gojo last15 hard average games per set 10.4 (219 games/21 sets)
- Wendelken last15 hard average games per set 9.6 (86 games/9 sets)
- Gojo last15 hard tiebreaks played: 4 in 9 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's recent hard-court matches average over 24 games, and Wendelken's competitive sets against higher-ranked opponents suggest a total above 21.5 is likely.
- Gojo last15 hard average games per match 24.3 (219 games/9 matches)
- Wendelken last15 hard average games per match 21.5 (86 games/4 matches)
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently (Gojo 3 of last 5 hard matches went 3 sets)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's consistent positive game margins on hard courts and Wendelken's negative differential support a handicap cover of -3.5 games.
- Gojo last15 hard average game margin: +1.3 per match (121 won, 98 lost in 9 matches)
- Wendelken last15 hard average game margin: -2.5 per match (38 won, 48 lost in 4 matches)
- Gojo's last five hard-court wins: margins of +5, +8, +5, +3, +3 games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostBorna Gojo -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's recent hard-court sets frequently exceed 9.5 games, and Wendelken's competitiveness in second sets (e.g., vs. Kotov, Rice) suggests another tight set.
- Gojo last15 hard sets: 15 of 21 sets had 10+ games
- Wendelken last15 hard sets: 5 of 9 sets had 10+ games
- Gojo's last three hard-court matches all had second sets with 10+ games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Gojo's superior serve and break-point saving on hard courts in recent matches should allow him to control the opening set against Wendelken's weaker hard-court return game.
- Gojo last15 hard first serve points won 80.5%, Wendelken 67.5%
- Gojo last15 hard break points saved 66.7%, Wendelken 46.4%
- Gojo career first set win conversion 83%, Wendelken 84% (similar but Gojo's recent form stronger)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBorna GojoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Gojo's consistent hard-court performance and stronger second-serve numbers suggest he can maintain pressure and take the second set if the match extends.
- Gojo last15 hard record 7-2, Wendelken 1-3
- Gojo last15 hard second serve points won 52.2%, Wendelken 46.6%
- Gojo last15 hard total points won 52.5%, Wendelken 47.5%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Gojo's dominance in straight sets on hard courts (5 of 7 wins) and Wendelken's inability to take a set in recent hard-court losses point to a 2-0 outcome.
- Gojo last15 hard straight-set wins: 5 of 7 wins
- Wendelken last15 hard straight-set losses: 3 of 3 losses
- Gojo last15 hard sets won 71.4%, Wendelken 33.3%
BetBugs · Set BettinglostBorna Gojo 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's elite ace rate on hard courts (11.8 per match) combined with Wendelken's modest ace count pushes the total well over 14.5.
- Gojo last15 hard aces per match 11.8, Wendelken 3.3
- Gojo last15 overall aces per match 10.4
- Combined average aces per match: 15.1 (11.8 + 3.3)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 14.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's recent hard-court matches feature a tiebreak in nearly half, and both players have average tiebreak records, making a tiebreak likely in a competitive set.
- Gojo last15 hard tiebreaks played: 4 in 9 matches (44% of matches)
- Wendelken last15 hard tiebreaks played: 1 in 4 matches (25%)
- Gojo career tiebreak win percentage 53%, Wendelken 52%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average of 7.8 per match slightly exceeds the 7.5 line, though variance is high.
- Gojo last15 hard double faults per match 4.0, Wendelken 3.8
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.8
- Both players have similar double fault rates in recent hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Harry Wendelken

4W 11L

6-4 6-2#181Michael Mmoh

6-2 2-6 7-5#582Keegan Rice

6-5 ret.#288Murphy Cassone

4-6 6-3 6-3 6-3#78Valentin Royer

7-5 6-3#101Aleksandar Vukic

6-4 7-6(5)#70Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(7) 6-1#101Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#97Adam Walton

6-4 6-4#172Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-1#157Mark Lajal

6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(3)#877James Watt

3-6 7-6(1) 6-2#204Luka Pavlovic

7-5 6-4#170Marco Cecchinato

6-3 6-3#228Frederico Ferreira Silva

4-6 6-3 6-4#245Pavel Kotov

Borna Gojo

10W 5L

6-4 2-6 7-6(3)#876Sebastian Gorzny

6-4 4-6 6-4#218Felix Gill

6-2 6-4#393Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-2 6-2#876Sebastian Gorzny

6-4 6-4#197Colton Smith

7-6(10) 6-2#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

7-5 6-3#132Jurij Rodionov

6-3 3-6 7-6(9)#125Henrique Rocha

6-3 6-4#322Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 6-3#90Marco Trungelliti

7-6(5) 6-2#341Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-4 7-6(5)#129Nicolas Mejia

7-6(3) 6-4#293Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 6-7(6) 7-5#471Quinn Vandecasteele

7-6(5) 6-4#349Mitchell Krueger

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HWHarry WendelkenWendelken

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Borna GojoGojoBG

Borna Gojo carries the stronger recent form — Harry Wendelken's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In55.5%+5.8pp61.3%

1st Serve Won69.1%+10.7pp79.8%

2nd Serve Won48.2%+1.7pp49.9%

Aces / Match3.6+6.810.4

Double Faults / Match3.50.3 fewer3.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won35.9%—35.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.7%+1.0pp35.7%

Break Pts Saved56.6%+9.6pp66.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.9%+3.7pp51.6%

Serve · 1–4

55.5%1st Serve In+5.8pp61.3%

69.1%1st Serve Won+10.7pp79.8%

48.2%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp49.9%

3.6Aces / Match+6.810.4

3.5Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer3.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

35.9%Return Pts Won—35.5%

Pressure · 1–1

36.7%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp35.7%

56.6%Break Pts Saved+9.6pp66.2%

Points · 0–1

47.9%Total Pts Won+3.7pp51.6%

Harry Wendelken

Borna Gojo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Borna Gojo

Borna Gojo

Borna Gojo 2-0

Borna Gojo

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Harry Wendelken

Borna Gojo

Stat Battle