United StatesBrownsburg - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Stefan Kozlov #295United States2Aidan Mayo #625United States1

Sets 6-3 · 5-7 · 6-2Wed 12 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageStefan Kozlov · 330 places

Stefan Kozlov

United States

The supplied structured profile lists him at No. 295, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm.

Current ranking: #295
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Aidan Mayo

United States

Reached a career-high No. 269 on 20 May 2024 and is No. 625 in the supplied structured data. He won the Drummondville Challenger in November 2024.

Current ranking: #625
Peak ranking: #269 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 00:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Aidan Mayo’s dominant first serve and superior hard-court form give him a clear edge over a struggling Stefan Kozlov.

Expect a competitive match with extended sets, making over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 games in each of the first two sets strong plays. Kozlov +3.5 games on the handicap offers value given his recent tight losses.

Context

Last 5 hard-court matches: 1-4 record, 48.2% total points won, 61.8% first-serve points won.
- Return points won on hard is just 40.9%, making it hard to pressure opponents.
- Losses include defeats to players ranked 554, 673, and 240.
Last 14 hard-court matches: 81.5% first-serve points won, 9.1 aces per match.
- Overall hard-court record in this window is 8-6, with wins over top-200 opponents like Tristan Boyer (rank 168).
- Break-point save rate on hard is 67.2%, showing resilience under pressure.
H2H: Kozlov won 6-4 6-4 on hard in 2025 and 7-6 5-7 6-3 on grass in July 2026.
- In the grass match, Mayo won more total points (105 vs 103) but lost the decider.
- Kozlov's H2H first-serve points won was 77%, but his current hard-court number is only 61.8%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Mayo's superior hard-court form in the recent window, driven by a dominant first serve and better results against quality opposition, gives him a clear edge over Kozlov, who has been poor on hard courts recently.
- Aidan Mayo has won 8 of his last 14 hard-court matches (57.1%) with a 52.7% total points won, while Stefan Kozlov is 1-4 on hard in his last 5 (20%) with 48.2% total points won.
- Mayo's first-serve points won on hard is 81.5% in his last 14 matches, significantly higher than Kozlov's 61.8% in his last 5 hard-court matches.
- Mayo's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., Tristan Boyer, ranking 168) and competitive losses to top-100 players, while Kozlov has struggled against lower-ranked players on hard.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAidan MayoEstimated chance60%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in matches that frequently exceed 21.5 games on hard courts recently, and their H2H history indicates tight contests, supporting an over on total games.
- Kozlov's last 5 hard-court matches averaged 22.2 games per match, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5 games.
- Mayo's last 14 hard-court matches averaged 21.6 games, with 8 of 14 going over 21.5 games.
- Their H2H match on grass in July 2026 had 34 games, and the hard-court H2H in 2025 had 20 games, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kozlov has been competitive in most recent hard-court matches, and Mayo's wins often come by narrow margins, making Kozlov +3.5 games a strong handicap play.
- Kozlov's last 5 hard-court losses were by margins of 7, 4, 4, 7, and 5 games, with only one loss exceeding 3.5 games.
- Mayo's last 14 hard-court wins were by an average margin of 4.1 games, but 5 of his 8 wins were by 3 games or fewer.
- Their H2H matches have been close, with a 3-game margin on grass and a 4-game margin on hard.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonStefan Kozlov +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent hard-court data shows both players tend to have extended first sets, and their previous hard-court meeting also saw a 10-game opener, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Kozlov's last 5 hard-court first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Mayo's last 14 hard-court first sets averaged 9.9 games, with 9 of 14 going over 9.5.
- In their 2025 hard-court H2H, the first set had 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have consistently played second sets with at least 10 games on hard courts recently, and their past hard-court encounter also featured a 10-game second set.
- Kozlov's last 5 hard-court second sets averaged 10.4 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Mayo's last 14 hard-court second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 8 of 14 going over 9.5.
- In their 2025 hard-court H2H, the second set had 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Mayo's tendency to start strong on hard courts, combined with Kozlov's recent struggles in opening sets on the surface, makes Mayo the favorite to take the first set.
- Mayo has won the first set in 9 of his last 14 hard-court matches (64.3%), while Kozlov has lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 hard-court matches.
- Mayo's first-serve points won on hard (81.5%) gives him a strong start advantage, whereas Kozlov's first-serve points won is only 61.8% on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAidan MayoEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's high ace count on hard courts, combined with Kozlov's modest contribution, pushes the expected total aces well above 10.5, especially in a match likely to go over 21.5 games.
- Mayo averages 9.1 aces per match on hard courts in his last 14 matches, while Kozlov averages 2.6 aces in his last 5 hard-court matches.
- Combined, their recent hard-court ace averages total 11.7 per match.
- Mayo has hit 8+ aces in 10 of his last 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates on hard courts, and their combined average exceeds 7.5, making the over a strong play given the expected match length.
- Mayo averages 4.5 double faults per match on hard courts in his last 14 matches, while Kozlov averages 3.2 in his last 5 hard-court matches.
- Combined, their recent hard-court double fault averages total 7.7 per match.
- In their 2025 hard-court H2H, they combined for 8 double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tendency for tiebreaks on hard courts and the match expected to be competitive, there is a solid chance of at least one tiebreak occurring.
- Kozlov has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5 hard-court matches (40%).
- Mayo has played a tiebreak in 7 of his last 14 hard-court matches (50%).
- Their 2025 hard-court H2H did not have a tiebreak, but the 2026 grass H2H had one, and both players have tiebreak rates above 40% on hard recently.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Kozlov's poor recent hard-court form and Mayo's dominant serve make the underdog price a trap.

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W7-6(3) 5-7 6-3Stefan Kozlov#295vAidan Mayo#625Jul 5, 2026

W6-4 6-4Stefan Kozlov#295vAidan Mayo#625May 16, 2025

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Stefan Kozlov

7W 8L

7-5 6-1#87Zachary Svajda

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#554Alan Magadan

6-4 6-4#673Roger Pascual Ferra

4-6 6-1 6-2#696Leo Vithoontien

6-3 3-6 6-4#240Yi Zhou

3-6 6-3 6-2#110Jacob Fearnley

6-4 2-6 6-4#116Yibing Wu

6-4 6-2#381Garrett Johns

7-6(3) 5-7 6-3#625Aidan Mayo

7-5 6-4#440Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-2 6-1#899Mario Mansilla Diez

6-2 2-6 6-0#273Nick Hardt

6-2 6-3#166Daniil Glinka

7-6(3) 6-2#502Alex Rybakov

6-1 4-6 7-6(2)#230Kilian Feldbausch

Aidan Mayo

8W 7L

6-2 6-2#168Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-3#669Ryan Dickerson

7-6(3) 7-5#165Rei Sakamoto

6-4 7-6(7)#293Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-7(6) 6-3 7-5#455Christian Langmo

4-6 6-3 6-4#86James Duckworth

6-1 6-4#673Roger Pascual Ferra

6-4 6-2#840Evan King

6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(5)#42Alex Michelsen

7-6(3) 3-6 7-6(4)#554Alan Magadan

4-6 7-5 6-2#455Christian Langmo

7-6(4) 6-2#224August Holmgren

6-4 6-4#597Guillaume Dalmasso

7-6(3) 5-7 6-3#295Stefan Kozlov

7-6(1) 2-6 7-6(5)#166Daniil Glinka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SKStefan KozlovKozlov

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Aidan MayoMayoAM

Aidan Mayo carries the stronger recent form — Stefan Kozlov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In59.7%+3.0pp56.7%

1st Serve Won62.9%+18.1pp81.0%

2nd Serve Won48.7%+3.6pp52.3%

Aces / Match1.9+6.98.8

Double Faults / Match3.01.5 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.0%+5.6pp37.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.3%+9.6pp34.7%

Break Pts Saved56.0%+8.8pp64.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+2.4pp52.3%

Serve · 2–3

59.7%1st Serve In+3.0pp56.7%

62.9%1st Serve Won+18.1pp81.0%

48.7%2nd Serve Won+3.6pp52.3%

1.9Aces / Match+6.98.8

3.0Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

43.0%Return Pts Won+5.6pp37.4%

Pressure · 1–1

44.3%Break Pts Converted+9.6pp34.7%

56.0%Break Pts Saved+8.8pp64.8%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+2.4pp52.3%

Stefan Kozlov #295United States2Aidan Mayo #625United States1

Player Profiles

Stefan Kozlov

Aidan Mayo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Aidan Mayo 2-1

Aidan Mayo

Aidan Mayo

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Stefan Kozlov @ 2.40

Head-to-Head

Stefan Kozlov

Aidan Mayo

Stat Battle