Tom Gentzsch #212Germany22 – 0Jan Kumstat #612Czechia0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Gentzsch's recent clay matches are consistently close, with only 20% resulting in a loss by more than 3 games, making +3.5 a strong cover probability.

• Gentzsch last 15 clay matches: avg game differential -0.2
• Kumstat last 15 clay matches: avg game differential +1.3
• Gentzsch lost by more than 3 games in only 2 of last 10 clay matches
• Kumstat won by more than 3 games in 4 of last 10 clay matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average over 22 games per clay match in recent form, and their current tournament paths include long three-setters, supporting a higher total games line.

• Gentzsch last 15 clay matches: avg 22.8 total games per match
• Kumstat last 15 clay matches: avg 22.2 total games per match
• Both players have 3-set matches in current tournament
• Gentzsch quarterfinal: 32 games, Kumstat R16: 33 games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Recent set 1 game averages for both players hover near 9.5, and their tiebreak proficiency increases the likelihood of extended opening sets.

• Gentzsch last 5 clay matches: set 1 avg 9.6 games
• Kumstat last 5 clay matches: set 1 avg 9.2 games
• Both players have tiebreak experience in recent sets
• Gentzsch career tiebreak win rate: 61%, Kumstat: 63%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Set 2 game averages are near the line, and the competitive nature of this semifinal suggests a close second set is plausible.

• Gentzsch last 5 clay matches: set 2 avg 9.4 games
• Kumstat last 5 clay matches: set 2 avg 9.0 games
• Both players have shown ability to extend sets in current event
• Gentzsch quarterfinal set 2: 13 games (tiebreak)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined ace average of 13.6 slightly exceeds the 12.5 line, though clay surface typically reduces ace counts, making this a low-confidence over.

• Gentzsch last 15 clay: 5.4 aces per match
• Kumstat last 15 clay: 8.2 aces per match
• Combined average: 13.6 aces per match
• Both players over 190cm tall with strong serves