CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Jan Kumstat #508Czechia2Frederico Ferreira Silva #235Portugal0

Sets 6-4 · 7-5Fri 31 Jul 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrederico Ferreira Silva · 273 places

Jan Kumstat

Czechia

The 19-year-old Czech is at a new career-best No. 508 according to the supplied current ranking. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; he is a 196 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #508
Peak ranking: #508
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Portugal

The 31-year-old Portuguese left-hander reached a career-high No. 168 on 24 May 2021 and is currently ranked No. 235. The Australian Open lists Pedro Felner as his coach.

Current ranking: #235
Peak ranking: #168 · 2021
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jul 2026, 06:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Jan Kumstat holds a clear advantage due to superior recent form, a dominant first serve, and a significant freshness edge after Ferreira Silva’s back-to-back three-setters.

Back Kumstat to win the match, and consider the value in Kumstat 2-1 set betting or over 21.5 total games given Ferreira Silva’s tendency to force deciders.

Context

Ferreira Silva beat Kasnikowski 6-1 3-6 6-3 in 2:28 on 28 July, then beat Kicker 6-2 4-6 6-1 in 2:17 on 29 July.
- Kumstat beat Kolar 6-2 4-6 6-3 in 2:07 on 27 July and Seyboth Wild 6-4 6-2 in 1:07 on 29 July.
- Ferreira Silva's 4:46 workload across consecutive days is 1:31 more than Kumstat's 3:15, with only one rest day before this quarterfinal.
Kumstat last 15 overall first-serve points won: 76.1% (417/548).
- Ferreira Silva last 15 overall first-serve points won: 67.0% (490/731).
- Kumstat's first-serve dominance is consistent on clay, with the same 76.1% rate in his last 15 clay matches.
Kumstat last 15 record: 9-6 (60%), with wins over Kolar (154) and Seyboth Wild (206).
- Ferreira Silva last 15 record: 4-11 (26.7%), with losses to players ranked outside the top 200.
- Kumstat has won 8 of his last 10 matches, while Ferreira Silva has lost 8 of his last 10.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Kumstat's superior recent form and surface-specific stats (54.4% games won on clay vs 45.8%) give him a clear edge, supported by a 60% win rate in the last 15 matches compared to Ferreira Silva's 26.7%.
- Kumstat last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Ferreira Silva 4-11 (26.7%)
- Kumstat last 15 clay games won 54.4% vs Ferreira Silva 45.8%
- Kumstat last 15 clay total points won 52.4% vs Ferreira Silva 48.0%
- Kumstat recent form: 8-2 in last 10, including wins over Kolar (154) and Seyboth Wild (206)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJan KumstatEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high deciding-set win rates and Ferreira Silva's recent matches often go three sets, pushing the total games over 21.5 in a competitive clay-court encounter.
- Kumstat last 15 average games per match: 22.1
- Ferreira Silva last 15 average games per match: 23.9
- Both players have 60% deciding set win rate in career
- Ferreira Silva last 15 clay matches: 4 three-setters in last 5 wins
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Even in losses, Ferreira Silva's matches are often close (average -4.4 games in last 5 losses), and his three-set tendency should keep the game differential within 3.5 games against Kumstat.
- Ferreira Silva last 15 clay games won 45.8% vs Kumstat 54.4%
- Ferreira Silva's last 5 losses: average margin -4.4 games
- Kumstat's last 5 wins: average margin +5.6 games
- Ferreira Silva's three-set matches keep games close
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFrederico Ferreira Silva +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average around 9.5 games, with several exceeding 9.5, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition in a competitive match.
- Kumstat last 15 average set games: 9.5
- Ferreira Silva last 15 average set games: 9.4
- Ferreira Silva's last 5 first sets: 10, 9, 12, 10, 8 games
- Kumstat's last 5 first sets: 10, 8, 7, 10, 12 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Kumstat's strong first-set record (89% career conversion) and dominant first serve (76.1% points won in last 15) should allow him to start fast against Ferreira Silva, who has a lower first-serve win rate.
- Kumstat first-set win conversion career 89%
- Kumstat last 15 first serve points won 76.1% vs Ferreira Silva 67.0%
- Ferreira Silva last 15 clay first serve points won 67.1%
- Kumstat won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJan KumstatEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferreira Silva's pattern of long matches and both players' high deciding-set win rates suggest a high likelihood of a three-setter, especially if Kumstat drops a set.
- Ferreira Silva last 15 clay: 4 of 4 wins in three sets
- Kumstat last 15: 5 three-set matches out of 15
- Both players have 59% career deciding set win rate
- Ferreira Silva's recent matches: 3 of last 5 went three sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kumstat's high ace rate (8.3 per match) alone nearly covers the line, and Ferreira Silva adds a few, making over 10.5 aces likely in a match that could go three sets.
- Kumstat last 15 aces per match: 8.3
- Ferreira Silva last 15 aces per match: 2.7
- Combined average aces per match: 11.0
- Kumstat's height (196cm) aids serve power on clay
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is just below 5.5, and Ferreira Silva's clay-specific rate is even lower (1.9), suggesting a slight lean toward under 5.5 double faults.
- Kumstat last 15 double faults per match: 3.0
- Ferreira Silva last 15 double faults per match: 2.3
- Combined average: 5.3 double faults per match
- Ferreira Silva clay double faults per match: 1.9
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Jan Kumstat has been highly reliable when projected to win

Jan Kumstat has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent win predictions, exceeding the expected 2.3 based on average estimated probability. The only miss came as an away underdog against Tom Gentzsch, while both home and away wins were secured when favored. The current probability of 62% is within the historical range of 55–62%.

Recent evidence for Jan Kumstat4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#154Zdenek Kolar1-2#509Jan Kumstat

BetBugsJan Kumstat to win·55%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#154Zdenek Kolar1-2#509Jan Kumstat

Jan Kumstat to win

55%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Matched

18 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#612Jan Kumstat

BetBugsJan Kumstat to win·58%

Missed

18 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#612Jan Kumstat

Jan Kumstat to win

58%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Missed

17 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#612Jan Kumstat2-0#529Thijs Boogaard

BetBugsJan Kumstat to win·62%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#612Jan Kumstat2-0#529Thijs Boogaard

Jan Kumstat to win

62%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Matched

12 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#646Leo Raquillet0-2#611Jan Kumstat

BetBugsJan Kumstat to win·58%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#646Leo Raquillet0-2#611Jan Kumstat

Jan Kumstat to win

58%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Matched

Jan Kumstat

9W 6L

6-4 6-2#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-2 4-6 6-3#154Zdenek Kolar

1-6 7-6(1) 6-2#383Mathys Erhard

6-4 6-2#888Yuichiro Inui

7-5 6-4#186Tom Gentzsch

6-1 6-1#481Thijs Boogaard

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#284Florian Broska

6-3 6-1#214Henri Squire

6-3 6-3#449Mateus Alves

7-6(2) 6-4#654Leo Raquillet

7-6(5) 6-2#718Pavel Lagutin

6-1 1-6 6-3—Duje Markovina

6-3 6-2#618Kai Wehnelt

6-4 7-6(3)#435Corentin Denolly

3-6 7-6(4) 6-2#387Georgii Kravchenko

Frederico Ferreira Silva

4W 11L

6-2 4-6 6-1#369Nicolas Kicker

6-1 3-6 6-3#233Maks Kasnikowski

7-5 6-7(4) 6-1#48Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-2#261Martin Krumich

2-6 6-3 6-4#208Luka Pavlovic

6-4 6-3#386Olle Wallin

6-3 6-3#250Edas Butvilas

3-6 7-6(0) 7-6(5)#258Matej Dodig

6-4 6-3#160Gonzalo Bueno

6-4 6-3#383Mathys Erhard

6-2 7-5#148Pedro Martinez Portero

4-6 7-5 6-3#372Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#191Federico Agustin Gomez

6-3 2-6 6-1#128Vilius Gaubas

6-1 6-2#260Chun Hsin Tseng

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JKJan KumstatKumstat

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Frederico Ferreira SilvaSilvaFS

Jan Kumstat carries the stronger recent form — Frederico Ferreira Silva's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In54.7%+7.3pp62.0%

1st Serve Won76.1%+9.1pp67.0%

2nd Serve Won57.5%+8.8pp48.7%

Aces / Match8.3+5.62.7

Double Faults / Match3.00.7 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.1%+2.6pp35.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.0%+5.4pp38.6%

Break Pts Saved55.3%+5.7pp61.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.4%+4.2pp48.2%

Serve · 3–2

54.7%1st Serve In+7.3pp62.0%

76.1%1st Serve Won+9.1pp67.0%

57.5%2nd Serve Won+8.8pp48.7%

8.3Aces / Match+5.62.7

3.0Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

38.1%Return Pts Won+2.6pp35.5%

Pressure · 1–1

44.0%Break Pts Converted+5.4pp38.6%

55.3%Break Pts Saved+5.7pp61.0%

Points · 1–0

52.4%Total Pts Won+4.2pp48.2%

Jan Kumstat

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jan Kumstat

Jan Kumstat

Jan Kumstat 2-1

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Jan Kumstat

Frederico Ferreira Silva

Stat Battle