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Predictions graded

Alina Korneeva #89Russia0Cori Gauff #4United States2

Sets 3-6 · 1-6Sun 9 Aug 2026, 19:45 Predictions gradedFourth RoundHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCori Gauff · 85 places

Alina Korneeva

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 75 on July 20, 2026. Her senior title record is heavily hard-court based, including seven of eight ITF singles titles and the 2026 Oeiras WTA 125 title.

Current ranking: #89
Peak ranking: #75 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Cori Gauff

United States

Reached a career-high No. 2 on June 10, 2024. The WTA lists hard courts as her favorite surface and Jean-Christophe Faurel as her current coach.

Current ranking: #4
Peak ranking: #2 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Aug 2026, 15:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Gauff's superior serve and ranking make her the rightful favorite, but Korneeva's strong hard-court form (8-2) suggests a competitive match.

The best betting angle is over 19.5 total games at 1.75, while Gauff's short odds (1.29) offer no value. Avoid the -4.5 game handicap on Gauff due to Korneeva's resilience.

Context

Korneeva's last15 hard-court record is 8-2 (80%), with 61% of games won over 10 matches.
- She has won her last three Toronto matches in straight sets, including a dominant 6-2 6-2 win over world No. 28 Emma Navarro.
- Her hard-court return points won is 51.1%, showing she can pressure opponents' serves.
Gauff's last15 hard-court record is 2-0, with 67.6% games won, but only 2 matches tracked.
- Her overall last15 record is 11-4, but most of those matches were on grass and clay.
- Her hard-court first-serve points won is 73.3%, but that is based on just 2 matches.
Korneeva's last15 hard-court break-point save rate is 44.4% (24/54).
- Gauff's overall last15 break-point conversion rate is 43%, but she creates many opportunities (172 break points in 15 matches).
- In her last match, Korneeva faced 7 break points against Iva Jovic and saved only 3.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cori Gauff

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's superior ranking, serve metrics, and break-point save rate give her a clear edge, but the odds overstate her probability relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cori Gauff

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's superior first-serve points won and Korneeva's weak break-point saving on hard court give Gauff the edge in the opening set.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Cori Gauff 2-0

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Gauff's dominant serve and Korneeva's low break-point save rate on hard court suggest Gauff can win in straight sets, though Korneeva's resilience adds some risk of a third set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Gauff's superior ranking (4 vs 89), stronger serve metrics (69.3% first-serve points won in last15 vs Korneeva's 63.5%), and better break-point save rate give her a clear edge on hard court, despite Korneeva's solid recent form.
- Gauff's last15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), with 66.7% sets won and 57.1% games won over 15 matches.
- Korneeva's last15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), but her hard-court last15 is 8-2 (80%) with 61% games won.
- Gauff's career hard-court win%: 177-? (70.9% overall), with 68% first-serve points won and 44% second-serve points won.
- Korneeva's career hard-court win%: 94-? (73.8% overall), but her last15 break-point save rate is only 48.5% vs Gauff's 56.1%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players in strong form and capable of extending sets, the match is likely to exceed 20.5 games, especially if it goes to three sets or features tight scorelines.
- Korneeva's last15 hard-court matches average 19.5 games per match (195 games/10 matches).
- Gauff's last15 overall matches average 24.4 games per match (366 games/15 matches), with many three-setters.
- Both players have high first-set win conversion (Korneeva 93%, Gauff 92%), suggesting competitive sets.
- Korneeva's last15 hard-court games won% is 61%, indicating she keeps matches close.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' ability to hold serve and compete early, the first set is likely to be close, with a good chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Korneeva's last15 hard-court matches: 6 of 10 first sets had 10+ games.
- Gauff's last15 overall matches: 8 of 15 first sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have high first-set win conversion, suggesting competitive starts.
- Korneeva's last15 hard-court return points won: 51.1%, indicating she can hold serve and push games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Gauff's superior serve and Korneeva's weak break-point saving on hard court give Gauff the edge in the opening set, where early breaks are likely.
- Gauff's last15 overall first-serve points won: 69.3% vs Korneeva's 63.5%.
- Korneeva's last15 hard-court first-serve points won: 65.8%, but her break-point save rate is only 44.4%.
- Gauff's career first-set win conversion: 92%, indicating she starts matches strongly.
- Korneeva's last15 hard-court return points won: 51.1%, but Gauff's serve is a level above her recent opponents.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCori GauffEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Gauff's dominant serve and Korneeva's low break-point save rate on hard court suggest Gauff can win in straight sets, though Korneeva's resilience (93% first-set win conversion) adds some risk of a third set.
- Gauff's last15 hard-court sets won: 100% (4/4) in 2 matches, with 67.6% games won.
- Korneeva's last15 hard-court sets won: 77.3% (17/22), but she dropped a set in 3 of her last 5 hard-court wins.
- Gauff's last15 overall first-serve points won: 69.3% vs Korneeva's 63.5%.
- Korneeva's last15 hard-court break-point save rate: 44.4%, indicating vulnerability on serve.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonCori Gauff 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players averaging around 3 aces per match, the total is likely to surpass 6.5, especially if the match extends to three sets.
- Gauff's last15 overall aces per match: 3.7, with 4.5 on hard court (2 matches).
- Korneeva's last15 overall aces per match: 2.9, with 2.8 on hard court.
- Combined average aces per match: 6.6, close to the 6.5 line.
- Gauff's career aces: 1510 in 437 matches (3.5 per match), Korneeva: 499 in 187 (2.7 per match).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gauff's high double-fault rate, especially on hard court, combined with Korneeva's moderate rate, makes over 7.5 double faults likely in a competitive match.
- Gauff's last15 overall double faults per match: 4.9, with 6.5 on hard court (2 matches).
- Korneeva's last15 overall double faults per match: 3.1, with 2.8 on hard court.
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.0, above the 7.5 line.
- Gauff's career double faults: 2381 in 437 matches (5.4 per match), Korneeva: 799 in 187 (4.3 per match).
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Gauff's limited hard-court sample and Korneeva's strong recent hard-court form make covering a -4.5 game handicap risky.

Prediction history

Coco Gauff has been highly reliable when projected to win

Coco Gauff has fulfilled 13 of 15 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 75.7% compared to an expected 11.4 fulfilled. Both missed predictions occurred when she was projected to win, resulting in losses rather than draws. The current prediction of 72% sits within the historical range of 55% to 92%, consistent with past projections.

Recent evidence for Coco Gauff15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·58%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#9Karolina Muchova1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

58%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

5 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·62%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#11Belinda Bencic1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

62%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

3 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·85%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#146Claire Liu1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

85%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·82%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#56Solana Sierra1-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

82%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

BetBugsCoco Gauff to win·88%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#79Tamara Korpatsch0-2#7Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff to win

88%probability

Coco Gauff won

Matched

Previous match context available

Alina Korneeva

11W 4L

6-3 6-4#16Iva Jovic

6-2 6-2#28Emma Navarro

6-0 3-0 ret.#103Polina Kudermetova

2-6 6-4 6-3#127Mary Stoiana

6-1 7-5#33Maria Sakkari

7-5 6-3#67Tereza Valentova

6-2 6-2#31Ann Li

6-2 6-1#236Aoi Ito

6-3 0-6 6-2#69Kimberly Birrell

6-2 6-0#253Fiona Crawley

6-2 6-7(5) 7-5#151Andrea Lazaro Garcia

2-6 7-6(2) 6-3#191Alexandra Shubladze

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#192Martyna Kubka

6-2 6-4#254Fangran Tian

6-4 7-5#222Celine Naef

Cori Gauff

11W 4L

6-1 6-4#33Maria Sakkari

6-2 7-5#131Kayla Day

6-2 1-6 7-6(10)#6Karolina Muchova

4-6 6-3 6-3#3Jessica Pegula

4-6 6-3 6-4#14Belinda Bencic

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#116Claire Liu

6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#86Solana Sierra

6-2 6-1#47Tamara Korpatsch

1-6 6-3 6-2#84Paula Badosa Gibert

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#27Anastasia Potapova

6-3 6-2#50Mayar Sherif

6-4 6-0#110Taylor Townsend

6-4 6-7(3) 6-2#9Elina Svitolina

6-4 6-3#18Sorana Cirstea

4-6 6-2 6-4#5Mirra Andreeva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAlina KorneevaKorneeva

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Cori GauffGauffCG

Alina Korneeva carries the stronger recent form — Cori Gauff's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In65.6%+3.5pp62.1%

1st Serve Won63.5%+5.8pp69.3%

2nd Serve Won46.1%+1.4pp44.7%

Aces / Match2.9+0.83.7

Double Faults / Match3.11.8 fewer4.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.2%+3.4pp46.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted57.3%+14.3pp43.0%

Break Pts Saved48.5%+7.6pp56.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won53.8%—53.2%

Serve · 3–2

65.6%1st Serve In+3.5pp62.1%

63.5%1st Serve Won+5.8pp69.3%

46.1%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp44.7%

2.9Aces / Match+0.83.7

3.1Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer4.9

Return · 1–0

50.2%Return Pts Won+3.4pp46.8%

Pressure · 1–1

57.3%Break Pts Converted+14.3pp43.0%

48.5%Break Pts Saved+7.6pp56.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.8%Total Pts Won—53.2%

Alina Korneeva #89Russia0Cori Gauff #4United States2

Player Profiles

Alina Korneeva

Cori Gauff

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 19.5

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff

Cori Gauff 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Coco Gauff (-4.5) @ 1.70

Coco Gauff has been highly reliable when projected to win

Alina Korneeva

Cori Gauff

Stat Battle