Rafael Jodar #15Spain00 – 2Brandon Nakashima #31United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

High first-serve win percentages and recent set averages above 9.5 suggest the first set will be tightly contested.

• Jodar's last15 hard-court sets average 9.7 games per set (204 games in 21 sets).
• Nakashima's last15 hard-court sets average 10.0 games per set (200 games in 20 sets).
• Both players have strong first-serve points won (Jodar 73.3%, Nakashima 80.8%), making breaks less frequent.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

With both players holding serve well on hard courts and recent matches averaging over 22 games, the total is likely to exceed 22.5.

• Jodar's last15 hard-court matches average 22.7 games per match (119 games in 9 matches).
• Nakashima's last15 hard-court matches average 25.0 games per match (113 games in 8 matches, excluding the quick 6-2 6-3 win).
• Both players have strong serve stats: Jodar holds 73.3% first-serve points, Nakashima 80.8%, suggesting few breaks and longer sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Consistent set lengths in recent hard-court matches and strong serving from both players point to another set with at least 10 games.

• Jodar's last15 hard-court sets average 9.7 games; Nakashima's average 10.0 games.
• Nakashima's second-serve points won on hard is 52.4%, which is solid but could lead to longer games if Jodar applies pressure.
• Both players have shown resilience in second sets recently, with Jodar winning 76.2% of hard-court sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Nakashima's high ace count alone pushes the total over 12.5, and Jodar contributes enough to make this a strong over bet.

• Nakashima averages 10.5 aces per match in last15 overall, and 10.3 on hard courts.
• Jodar averages 4.8 aces per match in last15 overall, and 3.2 on hard courts.
• Combined, their last15 hard-court ace averages total 13.5 per match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Nakashima's low double-fault rate and Jodar's moderate rate keep the combined total under 5.5 in most scenarios.

• Jodar averages 3.7 double faults per match in last15 overall, and 3.2 on hard courts.
• Nakashima averages only 1.7 double faults per match in last15 overall, and 1.9 on hard courts.
• Combined, their last15 hard-court double fault averages total 5.1 per match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

High first-serve win rates and recent tiebreak frequency from both players make at least one tiebreak likely.

• Jodar's career tiebreak win percentage is 54%, and he has played tiebreaks in 3 of his last 15 matches.
• Nakashima's career tiebreak win percentage is 53%, and he has played tiebreaks in 5 of his last 15 matches.
• Both players have strong first-serve points won on hard (Jodar 73.3%, Nakashima 80.8%), which often leads to tiebreaks.