Leo Raquillet #646France00 – 2Jan Kumstat #611Czechia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Kumstat's superior serve metrics and recent quality wins against stronger opposition give him a structural edge in this clay-court qualifying match.

• Kumstat has a higher career win percentage (52.6% vs 49.7%) and a stronger first-serve win rate (70% vs 63%).
• Kumstat's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (Denolly #423, Moeller #372) in the last month.
• Raquillet's last 5 matches show inconsistency with losses to Giustino (#226) and Topo (#350), while Kumstat has 3 wins in his last 5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Raquillet's ability to stay competitive in losses and Kumstat's occasional narrow wins make a +3.5 game handicap for Raquillet a solid bet.

• Raquillet's last 5 losses were by margins of 5, 4, 6, 6, and 6 games, but his wins were by 2, 9, 8, and 8 games.
• Kumstat's last 5 wins were by 3, 3, 9, 5, and 4 games, indicating he doesn't always dominate.
• Raquillet has kept matches close against higher-ranked opponents, losing by only 5 games to #226 Giustino.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches have been competitive and lengthy, making a total games over 21.5 likely in this best-of-3 format.

• Raquillet's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Kumstat's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Both players have a high deciding-set win rate (Raquillet 57%, Kumstat 58%), suggesting close matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The first set is likely to be closely contested given both players' recent first-set game counts and comparable break-point resilience.

• Raquillet's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Kumstat's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have similar break-point save rates (Raquillet 54.7%, Kumstat 55.9%), indicating tight service games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The second set could remain competitive if the match stays on serve, supported by both players' recent set-length trends.

• Raquillet's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Kumstat's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have shown the ability to extend sets, with multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Kumstat's tendency to start matches strongly, combined with Raquillet's recent first-set struggles, suggests a slight edge in the opening set.

• Kumstat has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, while Raquillet has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5.
• Kumstat's first-set win conversion rate is 89%, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players' double-fault rates are moderate, and a close match could lead to a combined total above 5.5.

• Raquillet has a double-fault rate of 4.1%, averaging around 3-4 double faults per match.
• Kumstat's double-fault rate is 3.8%, averaging around 2-3 per match.
• In a competitive match, pressure could increase double faults, pushing the total over 5.5.