Nacional AsuncionvsSportivo San Lorenzo

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Nacional are stronger, well-placed and defensively solid at home, while San Lorenzo are bottom and winless away.

• Nacional are 2nd with 32 points; San Lorenzo are 12th with 7 points.
• Nacional's home league record is 5W-2D-1L with 12 goals for and 2 against.
• San Lorenzo's away league record is 0W-2D-6L with 5 goals for and 14 against.
• Nacional won the August meeting 3-0 away and the January home meeting 1-0.

BetBugs · Match WinnerNacional AsuncionMarket price1.25Estimated chance64%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13

The read

San Lorenzo rarely score away, and they face a Nacional defense that concedes very little at home.

• San Lorenzo average 0.67 goals in away matches and 0.73 overall.
• They have scored 5 goals in 8 away league games.
• Nacional concede 0.29 per home match and kept 5 clean sheets in 7 home matches.
• San Lorenzo failed to score in 7 of 15 overall matches.

BetBugs · Away Goals TotalSportivo San Lorenzo under 1.5Market price1.13Estimated chance82%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Both teams' season scoring rates point to a low-scoring match, especially with Nacional's defense.

• Nacional concede 0.33 per match and kept 10 clean sheets in 15.
• San Lorenzo score 0.73 per match and concede 1.73.
• Nacional home matches average 1.43 scored and 0.29 conceded.
• San Lorenzo away matches average 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48

The read

First halves have been very low-scoring for both sides, with Nacional almost never conceding before the break.

• Nacional first-half goals for 0.80 and against 0.07; only one first-half goal conceded in 15.
• San Lorenzo first-half goals for 0.40 and against 0.80.
• Nacional home first-half goals for 0.71 and against 0.00.
• San Lorenzo away first-half goals for 0.50 and against 0.67.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' corner profiles suggest a match total around or slightly above the 9.5 line.

• Nacional average 5.00 corners and concede 6.57 per match.
• San Lorenzo average 4.86 corners and concede 5.00 per match.
• Combining own corners with opponent allowances points to roughly 10-11 match corners.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' shot profiles point to a match with enough attempts to clear 24.5.

• Nacional average 12.36 shots and concede 14.86 per match.
• San Lorenzo average 10.57 shots and concede 16.23 per match.
• Combining own shots with opponent allowances points to roughly 27 match shots.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined yellow-card and red-card rates make over 3.5 total cards a reasonable lean.

• Nacional average 1.92 yellow cards; opponents average 2.00.
• San Lorenzo average 2.07 yellow cards; opponents average 1.79.
• Both teams have a red-card incidence of about 0.2 per match.