Sportivo San Lorenzo0Olimpia Asuncion3

HT 0–2Sun 20 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–286%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 18–13On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 6–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 00:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Olimpia Asuncion are strong 78% favourites away to bottom side San Lorenzo, but the 1.38 match-winner price leaves only a slim edge.

The better value sits in Both Teams to Score — No at 1.75 and Olimpia -1.5 at 2.15, while the first-half away result at 1.80 is the standout avoid given Olimpia's slow starts.

Context

Sportivo San Lorenzo are last in the Clausura table with one point from ten matches, having lost nine and drawn one. They have scored three goals and conceded eighteen in that run.
Their recent form is a run of defeats: 0-1 at Sportivo Ameliano on 11 September, 1-2 at home to 2 de Mayo on 5 September, and 1-3 at Rubio NU on 1 September. In those three games they had 34%, 43% and 36% possession, so they spent most of the time without the ball. The pattern points to a home side that struggles to keep the ball and to convert the few chances it creates, which shapes how much pressure they can put on Olimpia.
- San Lorenzo have 1 point from 10 Clausura games (0 wins, 1 draw, 9 losses), scoring 3 and conceding 18.
- They lost 0-1 at Sportivo Ameliano on 11 September, 1-2 at home to 2 de Mayo on 5 September, and 1-3 at Rubio NU on 1 September.
- In those three matches they had 34%, 43% and 36% possession.
Olimpia are fourth in the Clausura with 19 points from 10 games, three points behind leaders Libertad Asuncion. Their league form reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five Clausura matches.
They beat Sportivo Luqueno 3-0 at home on 13 September and Sportivo Trinidense 2-1 away on 6 September, with 62% and 60% possession and 16 and 21 shots. That shows a team that controls the ball and creates a high volume of attempts. The limit is that their away record is only two wins and two losses from four, so their home dominance has not translated fully on the road.
- Olimpia are 4th with 19 points from 10 games, three points behind leaders Libertad Asuncion.
- They beat Sportivo Luqueno 3-0 at home on 13 September and Sportivo Trinidense 2-1 away on 6 September.
- Their away record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 4 matches.
San Lorenzo's home record in the Clausura is four defeats from four, with one goal scored and eight conceded. They have not drawn or won at home in the competition.
Their overall home form is part of a wider run of nine defeats in ten league games. The home ground has not produced a single point, and the one goal scored there is the lowest home output in the division. That makes it hard to argue for a home advantage in this match, even against a side whose away record is only mid-table.
- San Lorenzo's home record in the Clausura is 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses, with 1 goal scored and 8 conceded.
- They have taken 1 point from 10 league games overall.
The scheduled San Lorenzo home fixture against Olimpia was moved after the original pitch condition prompted an official venue switch.
ABC Color reports the Professional Division Council officially changed the venue to Defensores del Chaco because of poor conditions at Erico Galeano, with the Sunday 16:00 kickoff unchanged. The matchday setting and playing-surface preparation therefore differ from what the original home ground would have provided, though the report does not specify how either team will adapt.
- ABC Color reports that the Professional Division Council officially changed the venue to Defensores del Chaco.
- The report says poor conditions at Erico Galeano caused the move while the Sunday 16:00 kickoff remained unchanged.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 00:41 · Europe/BucharestABC Colorwww.abc.com.py · 16 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Massive quality and form gap (19 pts vs 1 pt) plus Olimpia's superior attacking output against a San Lorenzo side scoring 0.3 goals per game makes an away win the dominant match-result signal.
- Olimpia are 4th with 19 points from 10 (W6 D1 L3, 17 GF / 9 GA); San Lorenzo are bottom with 1 point from 10 (W0 D1 L9, 3 GF / 18 GA)
- San Lorenzo's last 15 matches: 0.3 goals scored per game, 1.6 conceded, 1.7 shots on target per game, 40.7% average possession
- Olimpia average 1.9 goals and 5.2 shots on target per game over the last 15, with 55.3% possession
- H2H last 5: Olimpia won 1-0 away at San Lorenzo in May 2026 and drew 1-1 in March 2026; San Lorenzo have not beaten Olimpia in the last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOlimpia AsuncionEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Lorenzo's inability to score (3 goals in 10 league games) and zero home wins makes any non-San Lorenzo-win outcome highly likely, with the draw as the main residual risk given four drawn H2H meetings.
- San Lorenzo have lost 9 of 10 Clausura matches and are winless at home (0W 0D 4L, 1 GF / 8 GA)
- Olimpia away record in Clausura: 2W 0D 2L with 4 GF / 5 GA, and overall form WWDWW
- San Lorenzo have scored just 3 league goals all season and 0.3 per game across the last 15
- H2H last 5 meetings produced no San Lorenzo win (Olimpia 1 win, 4 draws)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Olimpia AsuncionEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Olimpia's stronger first-half scoring rate against San Lorenzo's habit of trailing at the break gives them the edge, though the high share of level half-times keeps confidence moderate.
- Olimpia have led at half-time in 33% of matches and average 0.8 first-half goals
- San Lorenzo have trailed at half-time in 33% of matches and average 0.3 first-half goals
- Olimpia's last 5 matches include half-time leads of 2-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 3-2
- San Lorenzo have been level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 Clausura matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonOlimpia AsuncionEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia's superior fitness and attacking depth against a San Lorenzo side that fades and concedes heavily makes them the stronger second-half side.
- Olimpia have scored 5, 3 and 2 goals in recent matches with significant second-half contributions
- San Lorenzo have conceded 18 goals in 10 Clausura games, many after half-time
- Olimpia average 1.9 goals per game versus San Lorenzo's 0.3
- San Lorenzo have lost all 5 of their last 5 matches, frequently conceding late
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonOlimpia AsuncionEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The 18-point gap and San Lorenzo's 0.3 goals-per-game attack make a two-goal Olimpia win a realistic outcome, though the away side's modest away scoring (4 goals in 4 away games) tempers confidence.
- Olimpia won 3-0 and 2-1 in recent matches and average 1.9 goals per game
- San Lorenzo have lost 9 of 10 league games, conceding 1.6 per game
- San Lorenzo home record: 0W 0D 4L, 1 GF / 8 GA
- H2H: Olimpia won 1-0 at San Lorenzo in May 2026
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonOlimpia Asuncion -1.5Estimated chance52%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia's high-scoring attack (1.9 per game) against a defence conceding 1.6 per game points to a multi-goal game, though San Lorenzo's own low scoring caps the ceiling.
- Olimpia average 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over the last 15, with recent scorelines of 3-0, 2-1, 5-3 and 2-1
- San Lorenzo concede 1.6 goals per game and have shipped 3+ goals in four of their last 15
- Olimpia's last 5 matches produced 3, 3, 2, 3 and 8 total goals
- San Lorenzo home matches in Clausura: 1 GF / 8 GA in 4 games, an average of 2.25 goals against per home game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Lorenzo's near-total attacking impotence (0.3 goals per game, 1 goal in 4 home games) makes a clean sheet for Olimpia the more likely side of this market.
- San Lorenzo have scored 0 goals in 8 of their last 10 Clausura matches and average 0.3 goals per game
- San Lorenzo have failed to score in 4 of their 4 home Clausura matches (1 goal total at home)
- Olimpia kept a clean sheet in their most recent match (3-0 vs Sportivo Luqueno) and concede 1.4 per game
- San Lorenzo's 1.7 shots on target per game is the lowest attacking output in the sample
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The league's bottom attack (3 goals in 10 games, 1.7 shots on target per game) gives Olimpia a realistic clean-sheet path despite their own moderate defensive record.
- San Lorenzo have scored in only 2 of their last 10 Clausura matches
- San Lorenzo home Clausura record: 4 games, 1 goal scored, 8 conceded
- Olimpia have conceded 1.4 per game but face the league's weakest attack (3 goals in 10)
- San Lorenzo average just 1.7 shots on target per game across the last 15
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSportivo San Lorenzo not to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Lorenzo's very low first-half scoring rate (0.3 per game) and frequent level half-time scores point to a quiet opening period.
- San Lorenzo average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded across the last 15
- San Lorenzo have been leading at half-time in only 13% of matches and trailing in 33%
- Olimpia average 0.8 first-half goals and 0.7 first-half goals conceded
- Four of San Lorenzo's last five matches were level at half-time (D, D, D, L, D)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia's scoring volume and San Lorenzo's second-half defensive collapses make the second period the more likely source of goals.
- Olimpia's recent matches show heavy second-half scoring: 3-0, 2-1, 5-3 and 2-1 scorelines with late goals
- San Lorenzo concede 1.6 goals per game overall while scoring only 0.3, with most damage coming after the break
- Olimpia average 1.9 goals per game across the last 15, with 1.1 of those typically arriving in the second half
- San Lorenzo have trailed at half-time in 33% of matches but conceded 18 league goals in 10 games
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Lorenzo's 0.3 goals-per-game attack gives Olimpia a realistic win-to-nil path, but Olimpia's own 1.4 goals-conceded average keeps this a lower-confidence play.
- San Lorenzo have scored in only 2 of their last 10 Clausura matches
- San Lorenzo home Clausura: 4 games, 1 goal scored
- Olimpia kept a clean sheet in their most recent match (3-0)
- Olimpia concede 1.4 per game, so a clean sheet is not guaranteed
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonYesEstimated chance38%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate moderate corner volume (5.8 and 4.9 per game) and recent combined counts frequently exceed 9, supporting a modest over.
- Olimpia average 5.8 corners per game across the last 15
- San Lorenzo average 4.9 corners per game across the last 15
- Recent matches show combined corner counts of 10, 12, 10, 11 and 13
- Olimpia's 10-corner and 8-corner performances in recent home matches show high corner volume
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides average around 1.5-1.6 yellows per game and San Lorenzo's disciplinary record includes red cards, making a moderate card count plausible.
- San Lorenzo average 1.5 yellow cards and 0.3 red cards per game across the last 15
- Olimpia average 1.6 yellow cards per game with 0 red cards
- Recent San Lorenzo matches produced 3, 2, 2 and 1 yellow cards plus a red card
- Olimpia's recent matches show 2, 3, 3 and 1 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia's high shot volume (14.1 per game, frequently 16+) against a San Lorenzo side that concedes heavy shot counts makes an away shots over likely.
- Olimpia average 14.1 shots per game across the last 15
- Olimpia recorded 16, 21, 16, 17 and 18 shots in recent matches
- San Lorenzo concede 19, 11, 19 and 12 shots in recent matches
- Olimpia hold 55.3% average possession, supporting sustained shot volume
BetBugs · Away Shots TotalwonOlimpia Asuncion over 12.5Estimated chance58%