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Deportivo PereiraTolima

Tue 3 Nov 2026, 20:303 Nov, 20:30

9Probabilities7Priced7Edges86%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 2 Nov 2026, 04:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Pereira's home solidity meets Tolima's travel trouble: four clean sheets in eight home games against a side with five goals in eight away matches.

The league table complicates it, with Pereira 20th on one win all season. The prices worth taking are under 2.5 goals at 1.88, Tolima under 1.5 goals at 2.1, under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.43 and Pereira to win or draw at 2.4.

Context

No injury or availability news was returned and no researched context claims were supplied, so the reading rests entirely on tracked match records from the current season.

The visitors have struggled for goals on the road all season, which shapes how they are likely to approach this one.
Tolima have scored once per away game on average and been blanked three times in eight. Pereira have conceded four goals across eight home matches in the same window, keeping four clean sheets. That points to a narrow route to goal for the visitors, with one away goal the likelier ceiling than two.
- Away record, 26 August – 18 October 2026: 8 matches, 1 win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, 5 goals scored, 7 conceded.
- Blanked in three of those eight away matches.
- Away shot numbers: 12.75 total and 4.25 on target per match (8 matches).
The hosts' defensive record at home is the strongest single argument for a low-scoring night.
Pereira have scored five and conceded four across eight home matches, so the goals have dried up at both ends. Four clean sheets stand out, yet the shot counts show they concede territory: 12.9 shots per home game against their own 10.1. A scrappy, low-scoring home night fits better than a controlled one.
- Home record, 4 September – 30 October 2026: 8 matches, 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, 5 goals scored, 4 conceded, 4 clean sheets.
- Home shot numbers: 10.1 total and 3.1 on target per match, against 12.9 shots for opponents (8 matches).
The table positions cut against the home-side reading and are the main risk to carry into this fixture.
The gap is wide: 10 points to 31, with Pereira on one win from 19 league games. Their tracked window is friendlier at 3W-7D-5L in 15 competitive matches, so the two samples disagree about how poor the season has been. Tolima's away form of 1W-2D-5L points back the other way.
- Standings snapshot, 2 November 2026: Pereira 20th, 19 played, 1 win, 7 draws, 11 defeats, 10 points; Tolima 6th, 19 played, 8 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, 31 points.
Both sides arrive with recent scoring problems of their own, making the last meeting in Pereira a useful reference point.
Pereira have kept four clean sheets in eight home matches in the tracked window and Tolima have scored five goals in eight away games. The February 2025 goalless draw fits that pattern without proving Tuesday will repeat it. A tight, low-scoring night is the reasonable reading; one goal either way still decides this kind of game.
- 14 February 2025: Deportivo Pereira 0-0 Deportes Tolima, Primera A, at Pereira.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result3 outcomes · top 61%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Pereira are hard to beat at home while Tolima have won just once on their travels, so a home win or draw covers the likelier shapes.
- Pereira are 2W-3D-3L at home and unbeaten in five of eight home games.
- Tolima are 1W-2D-5L on the road, with five draws across nine away matches in the table.
- The last two meetings at Pereira finished 0-0 and 1-0 to the hosts.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDeportivo Pereira or DrawMarket price2.40Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With so little first-half scoring on either side, going in level at the break is the most likely single outcome.
- Pereira score 0.4 and concede 0.8 first-half goals per game; Tolima 0.33 and 0.47.
- In Pereira's eight home matches the first half averages 0.75 goals in total.
- Tolima's eight away matches average 0.875 first-half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Two draw-heavy, low-scoring teams point to a level result as the single most likely scoreline.
- Pereira have drawn 7 of their 15 tracked matches.
- Tolima have drawn 5 of 15, including away draws at Nacional and Fortaleza.
- The last meeting at Pereira finished 0-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerDrawEstimated chance33%

Goals6 outcomes · top 86%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both teams barely average one first-half goal between them, so two or more goals before the break is a long shot.
- Pereira score 0.4 and concede 0.8 first-half goals per game (15 matches).
- Tolima score 0.33 and concede 0.47 first-half goals per game (15 matches).
- At home Pereira average 0.375 for and 0.375 against before the break; away Tolima 0.375 and 0.5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.43Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Two low-scoring sides meet, and Pereira's home games in particular have been tight, so three goals looks unlikely.
- Pereira's eight home matches produced 14 goals in total (1.75 per game).
- Tolima's eight away matches produced 12 goals in total (1.5 per game).
- Pereira kept four clean sheets in eight home games; their overall scoring rate is 0.87 per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price1.88Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Pereira's home output is under a goal a game, so two or more from them is unlikely.
- Pereira have scored five goals in eight home matches (0.63 per game).
- They were held to 0 or 1 goal in six of those eight home games.
- Tolima concede only 0.875 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalDeportivo Pereira under 1.5Market price1.17Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
With Pereira scoring so little at home and defending well there, one side being blanked is the more likely shape.
- Both teams scored in only 3 of Pereira's 8 home matches.
- Pereira kept four clean sheets in eight home games.
- Tolima were shut out in three of their eight away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.75Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Tolima's away scoring is thin and Pereira's home defence is their strongest asset, so two away goals is unlikely.
- Tolima have scored five goals in eight away matches (0.63 per game).
- They failed to score in three of those eight away games.
- Pereira concede 1.125 per home game with four clean sheets in eight.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalTolima under 1.5Market price2.10Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Both teams' first halves are almost goalless, so both scoring before the break is very unlikely.
- Pereira average 0.4 first-half goals across 15 matches; Tolima 0.33.
- Only one of Pereira's last six matches had a first-half goal from either side in the opening period.
- Neither side averages more than half a first-half goal at home or away respectively.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoMarket price1.14Estimated chance86%