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PalmeirasVasco da Gama

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 19:001 Nov, 19:00

9Probabilities8Priced8Edges87%Strongest

Strong leanLeanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 03:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Palmeiras' seven-from-seven home run meets a Vasco side that has avoided defeat in five of seven away matches, so the Copa do Brasil tie has a genuine edge of contrast.

The likelier outcome is a Palmeiras win, and 1.67 is a fair price to take; both teams to score – no at 1.75, Palmeiras to score at least once at 1.17 and Palmeiras to take more than 5.5 corners at 1.85 also hold up.

Context

Palmeiras' seven-from-seven home record and Vasco's five unbeaten away results in seven pull in different directions, and no venue, lineup or availability information is available to settle the picture.

Palmeiras have won four of the five meetings in the sample and Vasco one, with three of the five settled by a single goal. The 4-1 in August 2026 and the 3-0 in October 2025 are the only comfortable margins. Vasco's win came in March 2026 in Rio, so the series has not been one-way traffic.
- Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco da Gama, Serie A, 23 August 2026
- Vasco da Gama 2-1 Palmeiras, Serie A, 12 March 2026
- Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco da Gama, Serie A, 1 October 2025
- Vasco da Gama 0-1 Palmeiras, Serie A, 4 May 2025
The sample covers Serie A and Libertadores fixtures and shows a side that rarely concedes: four goals against in 15 matches and not a single first-half goal. At home the numbers tighten further, with two goals conceded across seven matches and five clean sheets. Vasco's away scoring rate of 1.0 goal per game in the same window is the obvious test of that record.
- Palmeiras: 15 competitive matches, 19 August to 28 October 2026, 4 goals conceded and 11 clean sheets
- Palmeiras: both teams scored in 4 of 15 matches
- Palmeiras at home: 7 matches, 2 goals conceded and 5 clean sheets
- Palmeiras: 0.0 first-half goals conceded per match across 15 matches
Vasco have been hard to beat on the road, with four wins, one draw and two defeats in those seven away fixtures and four goals conceded. The other side of it is a modest attack: seven goals in seven away games from 13.9 shots per match. That profile points to a game where clear chances are limited at both ends.
- Vasco away: 7 matches, 3 September to 18 October 2026, 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats
- Vasco away: 4 goals conceded (0.57 per match) and 3 clean sheets
- Vasco away: 7 goals scored (1.0 per match)
- Vasco away: 13.9 shots per match and 4.3 on target
Seven home matches is a small sample, but the average of 7.9 corners won per game sits well clear of the 4.3 they give up at home. Corner counts also follow the shape of the game, and a visiting side that defends deep can suppress them regardless of the home team's usual volume. The figure is a pattern rather than a guarantee.
- Palmeiras home: 7 matches, 23 August to 24 October 2026, 7.9 corners per match
- Palmeiras home: 4.3 corners conceded per match across the same seven games

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Palmeiras have won every home game in the sample while barely conceding, and Vasco arrive after two heavy defeats.
- Palmeiras have won all 7 home matches in the window (2.43 scored, 0.29 conceded per game)
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in 15 competitive matches (10W-5D) with 11 clean sheets
- Vasco lost 1-4 to Flamengo and 1-3 to Boca in their last four matches
- Head-to-head Aug 2026: Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco
BetBugs · Match WinnerPalmeirasMarket price1.67Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Palmeiras start strongly and have led at the break in five of their last six games.
- Palmeiras scored 12 first-half goals in 15 and conceded none
- At home they average 1.14 first-half goals; Vasco away average 0.29 scored
- Palmeiras led at half-time in 5 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerPalmeirasMarket price2.20Estimated chance42%

Goals6 outcomes · top 87%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Palmeiras' clean-sheet habit is the clearest pattern in the data and Vasco's away scoring output is thin.
- Palmeiras kept 11 clean sheets in 15 matches; only 4 of 15 saw both teams score
- At home Palmeiras conceded 2 goals in 7 matches, with 5 clean sheets
- Vasco scored in only 4 of 7 away matches at 1.0 goal per game
- Vasco failed to score in 2 of their last 3 away matches against Brazilian opposition
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.75Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Palmeiras' home scoring rate and Vasco's recent open games make two or more goals more likely than a single-goal or goalless match.
- Palmeiras average 1.80 total goals in their matches, scoring in 11 of 15
- Palmeiras score 2.43 per home game; Vasco's away games average 1.57 total goals
- Vasco's last six matches produced 0, 5, 5, 4, 1, 1, 0 goals with four of them above 1.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 1.5Market price1.35Estimated chance64%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
With that volume of home shots and a scoring record in every home game, Palmeiras are very likely to find the net at least once.
- Palmeiras scored in all 7 home matches and in 11 of 15 overall
- They average 21.7 shots and 7.7 on target per home match
- Vasco's away defence averages 4.3 shots on target against per game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalPalmeiras over 0.5Market price1.17Estimated chance87%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Palmeiras have not conceded a single first-half goal in the sample and Vasco rarely score early away from home.
- Palmeiras have conceded zero first-half goals across 15 matches
- Vasco average 0.29 first-half goals away and concede 0.14
- Only 1 of Vasco's last 6 matches had both teams scoring before half-time
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoMarket price1.14Estimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring rates are low enough that a single goal or none is the likelier outcome.
- Palmeiras second halves: 0.73 scored and 0.27 conceded per game
- Vasco's away second halves: 0.71 scored and 0.43 conceded
- Both home teams' second-half numbers imply about one goal combined per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Vasco's away scoring output is modest against the meanest home defence in the sample.
- Vasco average 1.0 goal per away match, with 7 goals in 7 games
- Palmeiras conceded 2 goals in 7 home matches with 5 clean sheets
- Vasco managed just 4.3 shots on target per away game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalVasco da Gama under 1.5Market price1.17Estimated chance84%

Match stats1 outcome · top 66%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Palmeiras' home corner volume sits well above the line, and Vasco's away matches give up a steady supply.
- Palmeiras average 7.86 corners per home match across 7 games
- Their last three home matches produced 9, 7 and 7 corners
- Vasco concede 4.7 corners per away match
BetBugs · Home CornersPalmeiras over 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance66%