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Eintracht FrankfurtHamburg

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 16:301 Nov, 16:30

8Probabilities7Priced7Edges80%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 04:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Four days after a 3-1 cup win at Hamburg, Frankfurt host the league rematch with both sides conceding regularly: 17 against in seven league games for Frankfurt, 16 for Hamburg.

Hamburg won the last league meeting at Frankfurt 2-1, so a home win is no formality. Of the quoted prices, only Hamburg to score no more than one goal at 1.45 holds up; Frankfurt to avoid defeat at 1.18 and over 2.5 goals at 1.38 ask too much.

Context

Frankfurt's six-name injury list and Hamburg's missing forwards pull the attacking outlook in opposite directions, while the quick rematch of the cup tie gives the fixture extra edge. The league table separates the teams by one point.

The 30 October availability list names six Frankfurt players across defensive, midfield and attacking positions. That leaves Frankfurt approaching the Hamburg fixture with a broader selection issue than a single-position absence. The list does not specify expected returns or projected replacements, so the exact matchday effect remains unclear.
- The 30 October list includes M. Pimpong, J. Maluze, F. Chaïbi, J. Ngankam, A. Knauff and N. Collins as injured.
- The same list shows no Frankfurt suspensions.
ReportedSources checked 31 Oct 2026, 04:36 · Europe/BucharestTeam availability listingmissesnextmatch.com · 30 Oct 2026
Frankfurt scored three second-half goals in that cup tie after a 0-0 first period, and Hamburg's only reply also came after the break. This league meeting therefore arrives four days after a game that stayed level until half-time and then opened up sharply. It is one reason a repeat could stay tighter early than the final scoreline suggests.
- DFB Pokal, 27 October 2026: Hamburg 1-3 Frankfurt, with the score 0-0 at half-time and Frankfurt scoring three second-half goals.
- The same tie produced four second-half goals in total, with Frankfurt recording 5 shots on target to Hamburg's 6.
That result is the most recent league meeting between the clubs in the available record, and it shows Hamburg have already won at this venue. Frankfurt had home advantage that day too, so the venue alone does not settle this fixture. Hamburg's current away league form — one win and three defeats in four — is a different sample and cuts the other way.
- Bundesliga, 2 May 2026: Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Hamburger SV at Frankfurt.
Hamburg's away split in the 2026 Bundesliga season reads one win, no draws and three defeats from four matches, with three goals scored and ten conceded. The sample is small and uneven rather than a settled pattern. It matters here because Frankfurt are the home side, and Hamburg's away scoring rate is the part of their game most directly tested by this fixture.
- 2026 Bundesliga away record for Hamburg: 4 played, 1 win, 0 draws, 3 defeats, 3 goals scored, 10 conceded (standings fetched 31 October 2026).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Eintracht Frankfurt or Draw

1.18fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 84.7%

−19.7ppshort

Frankfurt have the stronger recent attacking output and beat Hamburg in the cup, while Hamburg's away league record is poor.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 72.5%

−12.5ppshort

Both teams have conceded regularly and recent head-to-heads produced three or more goals.

Cards Over/UnderUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

−2.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have regularly produced three or more cards.

Corners Over/UnderUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 8.5

1.45fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69%

−1.0ppshort

Frankfurt's home corner volume and Hamburg's tendency to concede corners point to a busy set-piece game.

Both Teams Score First HalfUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.29fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 77.5%

−1.5ppshort

Hamburg rarely score before half-time and Frankfurt have conceded little in first halves at home.

Home to Win Either HalfUncertainty band: Lean

Eintracht Frankfurt to win either half: Yes

1.29fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 77.5%

−13.5ppshort

Frankfurt's strong first-half scoring gives them a good chance to win at least one half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Frankfurt have the stronger recent attacking output and beat Hamburg in the cup, while Hamburg's away league record is poor.
- Frankfurt beat Hamburg 3-1 in the DFB Pokal on 27 October.
- Hamburg's away league record is 1 win, 0 draws and 3 defeats with 10 goals conceded in 4 games.
- Hamburg are missing attackers Fábio Vieira and Yussuf Poulsen plus midfielders Remberg and Capaldo.
- Frankfurt's home league record is 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat.
BetBugs · Double ChanceEintracht Frankfurt or DrawMarket price1.18Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Frankfurt's strong first-half scoring gives them a good chance to win at least one half.
- Frankfurt average 1.89 first-half goals for and 0.67 against in competitive matches.
- Hamburg average 0.33 first-half goals for and 0.78 against in competitive matches.
- Frankfurt won at least one half in four of their last six competitive matches.
- Frankfurt's home league record includes a 1-0 win over Köln and a 2-2 draw with Freiburg.
BetBugs · Home to Win Either HalfEintracht Frankfurt to win either half: YesMarket price1.29Estimated chance64%

Goals3 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams have conceded regularly and recent head-to-heads produced three or more goals.
- Frankfurt average 2.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded in 9 competitive matches.
- Hamburg average 2.11 goals conceded in 9 competitive matches.
- The recent cup meeting produced 4 goals and the last league meeting produced 3.
- Frankfurt's home league games have averaged 3.33 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.38Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Hamburg have scored little away from home and are missing attacking options.
- Hamburg average 1.11 goals scored in 9 competitive matches.
- Hamburg have scored 3 goals in 4 away league games.
- Hamburg are missing attackers Fábio Vieira and Yussuf Poulsen.
- Frankfurt have kept 2 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalHamburg under 1.5Market price1.45Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Hamburg rarely score before half-time and Frankfurt have conceded little in first halves at home.
- Hamburg have scored only 3 first-half goals in 9 competitive matches.
- Frankfurt concede 0.33 first-half goals per home match.
- The recent cup meeting was 0-0 at half-time.
- Frankfurt average 1.89 first-half goals scored, so they can score early but Hamburg rarely reply before the break.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoMarket price1.29Estimated chance76%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 80%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' recent matches have regularly produced three or more cards.
- Hamburg's last six competitive matches all had at least three total cards.
- Frankfurt average 2.5 yellow cards and Hamburg average 1.22 yellow cards.
- The recent cup meeting had 4 total yellow cards.
- Four of Frankfurt's last six competitive matches had at least three total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.25Estimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have consistently generated high shot totals.
- Frankfurt's competitive matches average 30.75 total shots.
- Hamburg's competitive matches average 28.44 total shots.
- Frankfurt's last six competitive matches averaged about 29 total shots.
- Hamburg's last six competitive matches averaged about 30 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 24.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Frankfurt's home corner volume and Hamburg's tendency to concede corners point to a busy set-piece game.
- Frankfurt average 6.33 corners at home and 4.0 for opponents in home matches.
- Hamburg average 3.0 corners away and 5.0 for opponents in away matches.
- Frankfurt's recent competitive matches averaged about 9.7 total corners.
- Hamburg's recent competitive matches averaged about 10.5 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Market price1.45Estimated chance68%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Prediction history

Eintracht Frankfurt: 5/6 recent goals projections matched

5 of 6 comparable goals projections involving Eintracht Frankfurt matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Eintracht Frankfurt6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 May·Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt2-2