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AmedsporEyupspor

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 10:301 Nov, 10:30

10Probabilities7Priced7Edges84%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 03:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Eyupspor arrive without a league goal in four away games, while Amedspor have won all five at home; the catch is that Amedspor are missing four forwards.

A home win remains the likely result, but at 1.25 it asks for four wins in five and does not pay. Both teams to score – No at 1.67 and under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.55 are the reviewed prices that hold up.

Context

Amedspor's home dominance and Eyupspor's goalless away run shape the match, but four attacking absences for Amedspor leave the likely margin of a home win less certain.

Amedspor have won all five home league games, scoring 14 and conceding three; Eyupspor have lost all four away, scoring none and conceding 14. That contrast is the base case for a home win. Nine rounds is a short sample, and Amedspor are missing four forwards, while Eyupspor's only win came at home.
- Standings after nine rounds: Amedspor 20 points (6W 2D 1L, 20 goals for, 10 against); Eyupspor 3 points (1W 0D 8L, 2 for, 23 against).
- Amedspor home record after nine rounds: 5 played, 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 defeats, 14 goals for, 3 against.
- Eyupspor away record after nine rounds: 4 played, 0 wins, 0 draws, 4 defeats, 0 goals for, 14 against.
This is the clearest example of Amedspor turning home pressure into a big scoreline: 22 shots and six on target while allowing only one. It backs the case for them reaching two goals here, though it is a single match and four forwards are unavailable for this fixture.
- 13 September 2026, Süper Lig: Amedspor 5-0 Başakşehir; Amedspor 22 shots, 6 on target, 3 corners; Başakşehir 7 shots, 1 on target.
The shot count is the notable part: Eyupspor can create openings but were cut apart on the counter, facing 24 shots and 13 on target. It was the heaviest of four away league defeats in which they have scored none and conceded 14. Creating without converting is the pattern this fixture will test again.
- 20 September 2026, Süper Lig: Fenerbahçe 8-0 Eyupspor; Eyupspor 17 shots, 6 on target, 6 corners; Fenerbahçe 24 shots, 13 on target.
That result is seven years old and from the third tier, so it carries little weight for this fixture. Both clubs have since moved up and reshaped their squads, and one old scoreline says nothing about current form. Treat the head-to-head as background rather than evidence.
- 23 March 2019, 2. Lig: Eyüpspor 3-1 Amed.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Amedspor

1.25fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 80%

−14.0ppshort

Amedspor's home form and Eyupspor's winless away record make a home win the most supported result.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Under 3.5

1.53fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 65.4%

−4.4ppshort

Eyupspor's away scoring is so limited that a high-scoring game is less likely.

Home Goals TotalUncertainty band: Lean

Amedspor over 1.5

1.35fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 74.1%

−10.1ppshort

Amedspor's home scoring rate and Eyupspor's away conceding rate point to at least two home goals.

Away Goals TotalUncertainty band: Strong lean

Eyupspor under 1.5

1.11fair 1.19

BetBugs 84% · Market 90.1%

−6.1ppshort

Eyupspor have not scored away in the league, making more than one away goal very unlikely.

Corners Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 8.5

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

−9.9ppshort

Both teams' corner profiles point to a combined total around nine or more.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 66%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Amedspor's home form and Eyupspor's winless away record make a home win the most supported result.
- Amedspor are 2nd with 20 points from 9; Eyupspor are 18th with 3.
- Amedspor home record 5-0-0, 14 goals for and 3 against.
- Eyupspor away record 0-0-4, 0 goals for and 14 against.
- Amedspor won 2-1 at Samsunspor last time; Eyupspor lost 0-1 at home to Kasımpaşa.
BetBugs · Match WinnerAmedsporMarket price1.25Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Amedspor do most of their scoring after the break, while Eyupspor fade badly in away second halves.
- Amedspor average 1.36 second-half goals for and 0.79 against.
- At home Amedspor average 1.71 second-half goals for.
- Eyupspor away average 0.17 second-half goals for and 1.50 against.
- Eyupspor have lost their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerAmedsporEstimated chance55%

Goals5 outcomes · top 84%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Eyupspor's away scoring is so limited that a high-scoring game is less likely.
- Amedspor home matches average 2.43 goals for and 0.86 against.
- Eyupspor away matches average 0.67 goals for and 3.00 against.
- Eyupspor have scored only 2 league goals in 9 matches.
- Amedspor have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.5Market price1.53Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Amedspor's home scoring rate and Eyupspor's away conceding rate point to at least two home goals.
- Amedspor average 2.43 goals per home match.
- Amedspor have scored 14 in 5 home league games.
- Eyupspor concede 3.00 per away match.
- Eyupspor have no away clean sheet in four league away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalAmedspor over 1.5Market price1.35Estimated chance64%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11
The read
Eyupspor have not scored away in the league, making more than one away goal very unlikely.
- Eyupspor have scored 0 goals in 4 away league matches.
- Eyupspor have scored 2 goals in 9 league matches overall.
- Amedspor concede only 0.86 per home match.
- Eyupspor have failed to score in their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalEyupspor under 1.5Market price1.11Estimated chance84%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Eyupspor's scoring problems make both teams finding the net unlikely.
- Eyupspor have scored 0 in 4 away matches and 2 in 9 league games.
- Amedspor have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches.
- Eyupspor failed to score in their last six competitive matches.
- Amedspor have scored in 6 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.67Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both sides' first-half scoring rates are low, pointing to a quiet opening period.
- Amedspor average 0.57 first-half goals for and 0.57 against.
- Eyupspor average 0.54 first-half goals for and 1.00 against.
- Eyupspor average 0.50 first-half goals per away match.
- Amedspor average 0.71 first-half goals per home match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.55Estimated chance67%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both teams' corner profiles point to a combined total around nine or more.
- Amedspor average 5.86 corners, opponents 4.07.
- Eyupspor average 3.62 corners, opponents 5.46.
- Eyupspor away concede 7.00 corners per match.
- Amedspor home average 5.57 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Market price1.43Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Amedspor's matches have produced heavy card totals, and Eyupspor's away games also carry red-card risk.
- Amedspor average 2.79 yellow cards, opponents 3.29.
- Amedspor home average 3.00 yellow cards and 0.50 red cards.
- Eyupspor average 2.57 yellow cards overall and 2.00 away.
- Eyupspor average 0.50 red cards per match overall.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' shots-on-target profiles combine to about nine per match.
- Amedspor average 5.07 shots on target, opponents 3.86.
- Eyupspor average 3.92 shots on target, opponents 5.23.
- Amedspor home average 6.43 shots on target.
- Eyupspor away concede 7.00 shots on target per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance56%