Cottbus1Bochum2

HT 1–0Fri 30 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 14–12On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 22:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Cottbus score at home almost every week but rarely keep a clean sheet, while Bochum arrive off a 2-0 cup win with the lower-scoring league record of the two.

A Cottbus goal looks the likeliest single event and a quiet first half the likeliest shape. At 1.18 for Cottbus to score the edge is minimal; 1.67 for under 1.5 first-half goals is the better of the reviewed prices.

Context

The five listed meetings run from April 2012 to April 2014, all in the second tier, so the sample is old and involves different squads. Even so, Bochum took nine points from the last three and won twice at Cottbus without conceding. That history sits against Cottbus's strong home scoring this season and is the main reason an away result cannot be dismissed.
- 13 April 2014: Bochum 2-1 Cottbus in the 2. Bundesliga
- 1 November 2013: Cottbus 0-1 Bochum
- 14 April 2013: Cottbus 0-2 Bochum
- 4 November 2012 and 20 April 2012: 2-2 and 1-1 draws
All eight of Bochum's points are split unevenly: six from four away games, two from five at home. Travelling has suited them, although four goals in four away league matches is still only one per game. Cottbus's own home record of one win, two draws and one defeat keeps this from being a clear away edge either way.
- 2. Bundesliga 2026-27 away record: 4 played, 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 4 goals for, 5 against
- Home record: 5 played, 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 2 goals for, 5 against
- Overall: 9 played, 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses, 6 goals for, 10 against
Bochum's games have been short on early goals all season, and their 2-0 cup win over Mainz on 27 October was goalless at the break. Cottbus are a different proposition, with their matches averaging 1.5 first-half goals, and the 4-4 at Wolfsburg on 5 September brought four goals before half-time. A quiet opening 45 minutes is the likelier shape without being a settled one.
- Bochum overall 2026-27: 11 competitive matches, 0.45 first-half goals for and 0.64 against per game
- Same 11-match sample: 0.91 goals for and 1.0 against per game over 90 minutes
The cup tie was not a shot-fest — Bochum had eight attempts to Mainz's nine and three on target — but it brought a clean sheet and their only win in the last six competitive matches. It also means a shorter gap between games than Cottbus, whose previous outing was on 24 October. Nothing in the record says how much that gap will matter.
- 27 October 2026, DFB-Pokal: Bochum 2-0 Mainz, 0-0 at half-time
- Shots: Bochum 8, Mainz 9; on target 3-5
- Corners: Bochum 5, Mainz 6

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Cottbus are hard to beat at home and draw often, while Bochum's league season has been poor with five defeats already.
- Cottbus home record 1W 2D 1L, unbeaten in three of four
- Cottbus have drawn 4 of their 9 league games
- Bochum are 14th with 8 points and have lost 5 of 9
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCottbus or DrawEstimated chance62%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Cottbus find the net in nearly every game and score regularly at home, while Bochum's away defence has conceded in most of their road matches.
- Cottbus scored in 8 of 10 competitive matches this season
- Cottbus have 8 goals in 4 home league games (2.0 per game)
- Bochum have 2 clean sheets in 11 matches and 1 in 5 away
- Cottbus failed to score in only 2 of 10
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCottbus over 0.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Cottbus's matches are consistently open and Bochum have conceded in almost every recent league game, so at least two goals is the likely shape of the game.
- Cottbus league matches average 3.9 goals (17 for, 18 against in 9)
- Both teams scored in 7 of Cottbus's 10 competitive matches
- Bochum's league games average only 1.8 goals, but just one of their last six produced fewer than two
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 1.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Cottbus rarely shut opponents out at home, and Bochum have scored in most of their away league fixtures this season.
- Cottbus have 1 clean sheet in 10 competitive matches and none in 5 home games
- Bochum scored 4 goals in 4 away league games (1.0 per game)
- Cottbus concede 2.0 goals per game overall
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBochum over 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams start slowly, with low first-half scoring rates and few early goals in Bochum's recent matches.
- Cottbus first halves average 1.5 goals in their matches (0.7 for, 0.8 against)
- Bochum first halves average 1.1 goals (0.45 for, 0.64 against)
- Five of Bochum's last six league games had 0 or 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both sides generate and concede plenty of corners, and recent match totals sit comfortably above this line in most cases.
- Cottbus matches average 13.4 corners (6.7 each way)
- Cottbus's last six matches produced 17, 10, 15, 12, 13 and 12 corners
- Bochum's last six produced 11, 12, 10, 10, 14 and 10
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cottbus's games are shot-heavy at both ends, and Bochum's recent matches have mostly been busy enough to push the combined total up.
- Cottbus matches average 35.1 shots (15.7 for, 19.4 against)
- Cottbus's last six league games produced 41, 33, 26, 21, 45 and 40 shots
- Bochum's recent matches produced 17, 33, 24, 22, 38 and 34 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 29.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches sit right around five cards on average, with Bochum particularly willing to pick up bookings.
- Cottbus matches average 4.6 cards (2.2 for, 2.4 against)
- Bochum matches average 4.8 cards (2.6 for, 2.2 against)
- Bochum's away matches average 3.4 yellows for them
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance53%