Hoffenheim3Bayer Leverkusen0

HT 0–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–538%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 20–9On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 21:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Leverkusen are fourth and scoring freely, but they visit a Hoffenheim side that has won the last two meetings and scores at home.

Leverkusen to win at 2.25 holds up, and Leverkusen to score twice at 1.67 and more than 9.5 corners at 1.7 also offer something. Over 2.5 goals at 1.35 and both teams to score at 1.38 ask for more than the records support.

Context

A three-game sample, but it is the sharpest split in Leverkusen's record: eight conceded on the road in the league against nine in six league games overall. Hoffenheim's home form is modest, yet they carry a scoring threat, so this away trip looks less routine than the table suggests.
- Leverkusen's Bundesliga away record this season is 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from three games, with 8 goals for and 8 against (standings snapshot 2026-10-24).
- Leverkusen's overall league record in the same snapshot is 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from six games, with 16 goals for and 9 against.
Ten competitive matches is the largest sample available here, and six clean sheets with 0.9 conceded per game is the strongest argument against a high-scoring night. Hoffenheim have scored in nine of their ten, so the question is whether that holds against a defence of this standard.
- Ten competitive matches, 22 August to 22 October 2026: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 6 clean sheets, 2.8 goals for and 0.9 against per game.
- Opponents managed 3.0 shots on target per game against Leverkusen across the same ten matches.
The first league meeting finished 2-1 to Hoffenheim at BayArena, after Leverkusen led through Jarell Quansah's early goal. That makes this a current-season reference rather than a distant historical meeting, and it gives the reverse fixture added narrative context. It does not by itself establish how either side will approach this match, particularly with the venue reversed.
- Hoffenheim won 2-1 away to Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga season opener.
- Jarell Quansah scored in the sixth minute for Leverkusen.
- F. Asllani equalised in the 25th minute and T. Lemperle scored Hoffenheim's winner in the 52nd minute.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 21:49 · Europe/BucharestBundesliga live tickerwww.bundesliga.com · 23 Aug 2025
A single match rather than a trend, but it shows the volume this Leverkusen side can generate: 33 shots and 15 on target in a 2-0 away win, with only six shots faced. It points to long spells of territorial control in Sinsheim rather than an end-to-end game.
- 22 October 2026, OFI 0-2 Leverkusen: 33 shots, 15 on target, 10 corners for Leverkusen; 6 shots and 2 on target for OFI.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Leverkusen's stronger league form and much higher shot and goal output make them the more likely winner despite Hoffenheim's recent head-to-head wins.
- Leverkusen are 4th with 13 points from six Bundesliga games; Hoffenheim are 14th with six.
- Leverkusen average 2.8 goals for and 0.9 against in 10 competitive matches.
- Leverkusen have scored in all 10 competitive matches and average 20.9 shots.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Leverkusen have been strong and unbeaten in first halves recently, making a half-time deficit unlikely.
- Leverkusen average 1.4 first-half goals for and 0.5 against in 10 competitive matches.
- Leverkusen never trailed at half-time in their last six competitive matches, with four leads and two draws.
- Hoffenheim's home split averages 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.2 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Bayer LeverkusenEstimated chance67%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both teams' match averages sit near four goals, and Hoffenheim's open home games point to at least three.
- Hoffenheim's competitive matches average 3.9 total goals (2.0 for, 1.9 against).
- Leverkusen's competitive matches average 3.7 total goals (2.8 for, 0.9 against).
- Hoffenheim's home split shows 2.2 goals for and 2.0 against per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Hoffenheim almost always score at home and Leverkusen have scored in every competitive game, so both sides finding the net is plausible.
- Hoffenheim have scored in 9 of 10 competitive matches and in all five home split matches.
- Leverkusen have scored in all 10 competitive matches.
- Hoffenheim's home split shows both teams scoring in 4 of 5 games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Leverkusen's recent scoring floor is two goals and Hoffenheim's home defence concedes regularly.
- Leverkusen have scored at least twice in each of their last six competitive matches.
- Leverkusen's away split averages 3.0 goals for across six matches.
- Hoffenheim's home split concedes 2.0 goals per game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBayer Leverkusen over 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Leverkusen regularly score before half-time and Hoffenheim's home games usually produce an early goal.
- Hoffenheim's home split averages 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.2 against.
- Leverkusen's away split averages 1.5 first-half goals for and 0.67 against.
- Leverkusen scored in the first half in five of their last six competitive matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both teams generate well above five corners and their recent matches often clear the 9.5 line.
- Hoffenheim average 8.1 corners for and 4.8 against in 10 competitive matches, with 8.0 for at home.
- Leverkusen average 6.8 corners for and 3.5 against in 10 competitive matches, with 6.3 for away.
- The two teams' raw corner averages sum to 14.9 per match, and recent single-team counts include Hoffenheim 11 and Leverkusen 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Hoffenheim's card rate is consistently above two and Leverkusen contribute enough to make over 2.5 likely.
- Hoffenheim average 2.4 yellow cards, with 3.2 in the home split.
- Leverkusen average 1.3 yellow cards, with 1.5 in the away split.
- Hoffenheim's recent matches include team card counts of 3, 2, 5, 3, 1 and 3.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance74%

Prediction history

Hoffenheim: 5/6 recent goals projections matched

5 of 6 comparable goals projections involving Hoffenheim matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Hoffenheim6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 May·Bundesliga