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Predictions graded

Cheltenham Town1Newport County0

HT 1–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 6–15On targetOn target 1–2CornersCorners 1–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 09:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Cheltenham have won four of six home league games, while Newport have drawn three and lost three on the road.

Newport are unbeaten in five and missing Gwengwe and Doidge, so a home win is the likelier result but not a comfortable one. The prices on Cheltenham to win or draw at 1.48 and to win at 2.5 both hold up, as do both teams to score at 1.75 and over 2.5 goals at 1.83.

Context

Gwengwe is a senior central-forward option for a Newport side that had planned to use him at Rotherham before the charge was accepted, so the ban removes their most direct route into the box for a team that plays with little possession and attacks in transition. Cheltenham have conceded in each of their last six league matches, the kind of game where a physical focal striker changes how much pressure the home defence absorbs. The counterweight is that County came from two goals down at Rotherham without him and are seven league games unbeaten, so the shortage has not yet cost them results.
- Gwengwe received a three-match suspension after admitting a charge of violent conduct.
- The incident came in the 66th minute of Newport's 1-1 draw with York City on 17 October, was not penalised at the time, and was established through video review.
- He made the trip to Rotherham United on 20 October but did not play in the 2-2 draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 09:44 · Europe/Bucharest
The lay-off is measured in weeks rather than days, so this fixture falls inside it, and Doidge's hold-up play is the role Newport have least cover for in a side that spends long spells defending. County bridged the gap with a loan arrival rather than a like-for-like replacement, which changes the way they can keep the ball in the opposition half. No revised prognosis has been issued since mid-October, so the return date and his availability for the league games immediately after this one remain open.
- A groin injury was expected to keep Doidge out for a few weeks, as assessed on 15 October.
- Loan signing Kion Etete was available for selection in the same period.
- Doidge did not feature in Newport's 1-1 draw with York City on 17 October.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 09:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Etete changes Newport's front line from a makeshift arrangement to a recognised central striker who can hold the ball under pressure, which matters in an away game where they will spend long spells without possession. His equaliser came from a cross into the box, the service pattern Newport need to function while Doidge is unavailable. One appearance and one header is a thin base for projecting a repeat, and nothing yet suggests his starting place is fixed.
- Etete equalised in the 54th minute against York City on 17 October, heading in shortly after coming on.
- The goal came with his first touch in a Newport County shirt.
- He had joined the club on loan earlier in the month.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 09:44 · Europe/Bucharest
McCann is why Cheltenham's scoring does not depend entirely on their forwards, arriving late from central midfield in a side that has both scored and conceded freely at home. Newport concede possession by design and defend deep, the set-up that leaves the most room at the edge of the box for a late runner. Discipline is the counterpoint: he has already served a ban for a second yellow and was cautioned again at Oldham, so an early kick-off against a physical counter-attacking side carries real card risk.
- McCann took the League Two player of the month award for September, made on 9 October.
- Seven league goals from midfield in the opening weeks of the season underpinned the award.
- He missed the 10 October home defeat by Salford City through suspension after a second yellow card at Accrington Stanley, and was booked again at Oldham on 17 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 09:44 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Cheltenham's strong home scoring and Newport's winless away record, plus two missing Newport forwards, favour the home side.
- Cheltenham are 4W-1D-1L at home in League Two this season, scoring 13 goals in six home games.
- Newport are 0W-3D-3L away in the league, with 6 scored and 10 conceded.
- Cheltenham have won the last four meetings between the clubs.
- Newport are without Gwengwe (three-match ban) and Doidge (groin).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCheltenham TownEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Newport's away first halves are low-scoring at both ends, making a level interval the most likely single outcome.
- Newport concede 0.43 first-half goals per away game.
- Newport score 0.43 first-half goals per away game.
- Four of Newport's last six league matches were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second period is the tightest part of the match for these two sides.
- Cheltenham home second halves produce 2.0 goals in total.
- Newport away second halves produce 1.71 goals in total.
- Newport drew their last league game after scoring once in each half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Cheltenham's strong home scoring and Newport's winless away record, plus two missing Newport forwards, favour the home side. Newport's habit of drawing and their unbeaten recent run keep a share of the points realistic.
- Cheltenham are 4W-1D-1L at home in League Two this season, scoring 13 goals in six home games.
- Newport are 0W-3D-3L away in the league, with 6 scored and 10 conceded.
- Newport have drawn 6 of 12 league matches this season.
- Newport away record is 0W-3D-3L in six games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCheltenham Town or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Cheltenham start home games strongly, while Newport produce little before the break on the road. Newport's away first halves are low-scoring at both ends, making a level interval the most likely single outcome.
- Cheltenham average 1.29 first-half goals at home and concede 0.57.
- Newport average 0.43 first-half goals away and concede 0.43.
- Newport concede 0.43 first-half goals per away game.
- Newport score 0.43 first-half goals per away game.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCheltenham Town or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both sides' matches are producing goals, and Cheltenham's home games in particular have been open.
- Cheltenham's league games average 3.62 total goals (1.69 for, 1.92 against).
- Cheltenham home games average 3.86 goals; Newport away games average 2.57.
- Cheltenham have conceded in all 13 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Cheltenham's matches almost always feature goals at both ends, and Newport have been scoring recently.
- Cheltenham have had both teams score in 11 of 13 league matches.
- Cheltenham have kept no clean sheet in 13 league games.
- Newport have scored in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cheltenham's home scoring rate makes two or more home goals more likely than not.
- Cheltenham average 2.0 goals per home league game.
- They have scored in six of seven home league matches.
- Newport have conceded 10 in six away league games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCheltenham Town over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newport rarely score twice on the road, and two attackers are missing.
- Newport average 1.14 goals per away league game.
- Newport have scored more than one in only two away league games this season.
- Cheltenham concede 1.86 per home game but Newport's output is limited.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNewport County under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cheltenham have conceded in every league game this season, and Newport have been finding goals.
- Cheltenham have zero clean sheets in 13 league games.
- Cheltenham concede 1.86 goals per home game.
- Newport have scored in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNewport County to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Cheltenham's home first halves produce goals often enough to make at least one before the break likely.
- Cheltenham home games average 1.86 first-half goals in total.
- Cheltenham scored three first-half goals against Fleetwood in their last match.
- Newport's away games average 0.86 first-half goals in total.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cheltenham's matches produce enough corners to make this close, but Newport's away games are lower.
- Cheltenham's league games average 9.85 corners in total.
- Cheltenham home games average 9.14 corners in total.
- Newport away games average only 7.14 corners in total.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches consistently produce shot totals well above this line.
- Cheltenham's league games average 24.8 shots in total.
- Newport's league games average 24.7 shots in total.
- Cheltenham home games average 25.3 shots; Newport away games average 25.4.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 20.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target sit slightly above the line, helped by Cheltenham's open home games.
- Cheltenham's league games average 8.46 shots on target in total.
- Cheltenham home games average 9.14 shots on target in total.
- Newport away games average 8.0 shots on target in total.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cheltenham's home matches have generally stayed below five cards.
- Cheltenham home games average 3.71 yellow cards in total.
- Cheltenham take 2.46 yellows per game and concede 1.62 to opponents.
- Newport's last two league matches produced four and five cards in total.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

L1-0CheltenhamvNewport CountyApr 18, 2026LEA

W0-2Newport CountyvCheltenhamOct 18, 2025LEA

W0-3Newport CountyvCheltenhamFeb 22, 2025LEA

W1-2Newport CountyvCheltenhamSep 3, 2024EFL

L3-2CheltenhamvNewport CountyAug 10, 2024LEA

Cheltenham Town: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

League Two 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Cheltenham Town Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)	12	5	3	4	21-22	18	WLLLW
12	Newport County	12	3	6	3	16-15	15	DDWDW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Cheltenham Town

W4-2Fleetwood TownOct 20LEA

L1-4OldhamOct 17LEA

L0-2Salford CityOct 10LEA

L0-2Accrington STOct 3LEA

W2-1ChesterfieldSep 26LEA

D1-1ColchesterSep 19LEA

W3-1Crawley TownSep 12LEA

D2-2GrimsbySep 5LEA

W3-2YorkSep 1LEA

D2-2BarnetAug 29LEA

L1-2Swindon TownAug 22LEA

W2-1RotherhamAug 15LEA

L1-3CharltonAug 8LEA

L0-2Milton Keynes DonsAug 1FRI

W3-0Evesham UnitedJul 18FRI

Newport County

D2-2RotherhamOct 20LEA

D1-1YorkOct 17LEA

W1-0ColchesterOct 10LEA

D0-0GillinghamOct 3LEA

W2-1GrimsbySep 26LEA

W2-0Swindon TownSep 22EFL

D0-0Accrington STSep 19LEA

D1-1Fleetwood TownSep 12LEA

L0-1NorthamptonSep 5LEA

L1-2Salford CitySep 1LEA

D2-2TranmereAug 29LEA

L3-5Bristol RoversAug 22LEA

W3-0RochdaleAug 15LEA

L1-4AS RomaAug 4FRI

W2-1Yeovil TownAug 1FRI

Squad & Injuries

Cheltenham Town

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Newport County

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Cheltenham Town or Draw

Cheltenham Town

Yes

Cheltenham Town

Over 2.5

Cheltenham Town or Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Cheltenham Town

Newport County

Squad & Injuries

Cheltenham Town

Newport County