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Predictions graded

Gillingham0Newport County0

HT 0–0Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 7–15On targetOn target 1–5CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 18:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Gillingham's home form against Newport's winless away league start is the tension, but Gillingham come in off a 0-3 loss at York and a 1-4 Trophy defeat.

The home side is still the likelier winner, though 2.05 does not make that worth backing. None of the reviewed prices offers anything; both teams to score No at 1.88 is neutral.

Context

Gillingham signed free-agent striker Tom Eaves on 29 September, three days after injuries in the 3-0 defeat at York left the forward line short. Eaves scored 40 goals in 97 games across his first spell at the club and twice finished as its leading scorer. He arrives without a pre-season at Priestfield, so the likeliest short-term effect is an extra option from the bench rather than an immediate change to the starting eleven. The wider signal is that Gillingham's attacking depth is thin going into a home game they will be expected to control.
- Gillingham signed striker Tom Eaves on a one-year contract on 29 September 2026.
- Eaves scored 40 goals in 97 games in his first Gillingham spell, which ended in 2019.
- Gillingham moved for a forward after injuries left the attacking options short.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:03 · Europe/Bucharest
Gwengwe's first Malawi call-up would have kept him out of this fixture for the September qualifiers, but he withdrew from the camp on 23 September and remains with Newport. That removes an availability question rather than creating one: the club keeps a recognised centre-forward for a game on the road. It matters more because Newport's league away record this season is still without a win, so losing their number nine would have narrowed the attacking choices further. The gain is contingent on selection, since stepping away from international duty does not by itself guarantee a starting place.
- Shaquille Gwengwe received a first Malawi call-up in September 2026 for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers.
- Gwengwe withdrew from the Malawi squad on 23 September 2026 and asked to be considered for a later window.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:03 · Europe/Bucharest
Goodwin left the York game on 26 September and no timescale for his return has been set out. He is the club's number nine and one of a small group of senior forwards, which is why Gillingham went to the free-agent market for cover days later. If he misses out, Newport's back line may be facing a forward line built around a player who has not appeared competitively since the summer. The uncertainty runs both ways, so the practical read is an open selection question rather than a settled absence.
- Will Goodwin went off injured during Gillingham's 3-0 defeat at York City on 26 September 2026.
- Gillingham added a striker on 29 September, three days after that defeat.
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:03 · Europe/Bucharest
Albarus was shown a red card during the 3-0 defeat at York on 26 September, a dismissal that normally brings an automatic ban covering the next league fixture. He is part of Gillingham's midfield options, so his absence removes a body from the middle of the park in a game where the home side should see plenty of the ball. Gillingham's manager felt the sending-off followed an unpunished foul on Waldock, a detail that could support a challenge to the charge. The sending-off itself is the firm part of the story; the length of any ban has not been set out.
- Albarus was sent off in Gillingham's 3-0 defeat at York City on 26 September 2026.
- Gillingham's manager disputed the decision, citing an unpunished foul on Waldock in the build-up.
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:03 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gillingham or Draw

1.33fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 75.2%

−3.2ppshort

Gillingham's home league results and Newport's winless away league record favour the hosts at Priestfield. Both sides have drawn roughly a third of their recent competitive games and neither has dominated the other.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.91fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 52.4%

−0.4ppshort

Both teams' matches have been producing around three goals, and Newport's away league games have been especially open.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Gillingham's home league results and Newport's winless away league record favour the hosts at Priestfield.
- Gillingham sit 8th on 12 points; Newport 17th on 9
- Gillingham home league record W2 D1 L1, 6 scored 4 conceded
- Newport away league record W0 D1 L3, 4 scored 8 conceded
- Gillingham won their last two home league games 3-0 and 2-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGillinghamEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first halves have produced very few goals, which keeps the half-time score level in most matches.
- Gillingham's first-half figures are 0.27 scored and 0.55 conceded per match
- Newport's are 0.67 scored and 0.11 conceded per match
- Newport's away first-half record is 0.4 scored and 0.2 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede at similar second-half rates, making a level closing period the single most likely result.
- Gillingham have conceded 0.91 second-half goals per match
- Newport have scored 0.89 second-half goals per match
- Gillingham's last three matches included second-half scorelines of 0-2, 0-2 and 3-0
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Gillingham's home league results and Newport's winless away league record favour the hosts at Priestfield. Both sides have drawn roughly a third of their recent competitive games and neither has dominated the other.
- Gillingham sit 8th on 12 points; Newport 17th on 9
- Gillingham home league record W2 D1 L1, 6 scored 4 conceded
- Gillingham have drawn 3 of 11 competitive matches
- Newport have drawn 3 of 9 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGillingham or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first halves have produced very few goals, which keeps the half-time score level in most matches. Newport's first-half scoring and defensive numbers are the stronger of the two, which gives them a real chance of leading early.
- Gillingham's first-half figures are 0.27 scored and 0.55 conceded per match
- Newport's are 0.67 scored and 0.11 conceded per match
- Newport average 0.67 first-half goals, Gillingham 0.27
- Newport have conceded one first-half goal in nine matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Newport CountyEstimated chance78%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both teams' matches have been producing around three goals, and Newport's away league games have been especially open.
- Gillingham's competitive matches average 2.64 goals, Newport's 2.89
- Gillingham's last six match totals were 3, 5, 3, 2, 5 and 2
- Newport's four league away games average 3.0 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Gillingham have kept clean sheets in more than a third of their games and were untroubled at home in their last two league wins.
- Gillingham kept 4 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Newport were shut out in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Gillingham's last two home league wins were 3-0 and 2-0
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-half goal expectations are low but still slightly favour at least one goal before the break.
- Combined first-half scoring and conceding rates point to about 0.8 goals per first half
- Gillingham's first halves average 0.82 goals for and against together
- Newport's first halves average 0.78 goals for and against together
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams do the bulk of their scoring after half-time, and Newport's away second halves have been particularly open.
- Gillingham's second halves average 1.82 goals for and against together
- Newport's second halves average 2.11 goals for and against together
- Gillingham's last six matches produced 2, 2, 3, 2, 4 and 1 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gillingham concede regularly across their matches, so Newport scoring at least once is the more likely outcome.
- Gillingham concede 1.45 goals per competitive match
- Gillingham conceded in 4 of 7 home matches
- Newport average 1.2 goals per away match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNewport County to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newport concede in most away games and Gillingham have scored freely at home in their last two league outings.
- Gillingham scored 3 and 2 in their last two home league games
- Newport conceded 1.6 goals per away match
- Newport have conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGillingham to scoreEstimated chance73%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams give up a lot of corners, and their combined match averages sit just above the 8.5 line.
- Gillingham's matches average 9.45 corners in total
- Newport's matches average 9.78 corners in total
- Newport concede 5.67 corners per match and Gillingham concede 6.18
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newport's away games in particular have produced heavy shot counts for both teams.
- Gillingham's matches average 23.5 shots in total
- Newport's matches average 25.0 shots in total
- Eight of the last twelve combined match shot totals were 20 or more
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 19.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches regularly clear the 6.5 line for shots on target, with no defence dominant enough to suppress it.
- Gillingham's matches average 8.18 shots on target in total
- Newport's matches average 7.67 shots on target in total
- Both teams' last three matches each produced 8 or more shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 6.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Newport's matches have generally produced four or more cards, mainly because their opponents are booked frequently.
- Gillingham average 1.9 yellows and their opponents 1.8
- Newport average 1.6 yellows and their opponents 2.6
- Newport's last six matches produced 4, 2, 4, 5, 5 and 4 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance56%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W3-2GillinghamvNewport CountyJan 17, 2026LEA

D1-1Newport CountyvGillinghamNov 1, 2025FAC

W1-3Newport CountyvGillinghamSep 20, 2025LEA

L3-1Newport CountyvGillinghamMar 4, 2025LEA

L0-2GillinghamvNewport CountyOct 22, 2024LEA

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

League Two 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Gillingham	8	3	3	2	11-9	12	LWWWD
17	Newport County	8	2	3	3	12-12	9	WDDLL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Gillingham

L0-3YorkSep 26LEA

L1-4Cambridge UnitedSep 22EFL

W3-0Bristol RoversSep 19LEA

W2-0TranmereSep 12LEA

W4-1RochdaleSep 5LEA

D1-1ChesterfieldSep 1LEA

D1-1NorthamptonAug 29LEA

D0-0Fleetwood TownAug 22LEA

L0-3WalsallAug 15LEA

L0-3LutonAug 8LEA

W2-1Ebbsfleet UnitedJul 31FRI

W1-0MillwallJul 21FRI

L0-1CharltonJul 18FRI

W3-0DoverJul 14FRI

W1-0ShrewsburyMay 2LEA

Newport County

W2-1GrimsbySep 26LEA

W2-0Swindon TownSep 22EFL

D0-0Accrington STSep 19LEA

D1-1Fleetwood TownSep 12LEA

L0-1NorthamptonSep 5LEA

L1-2Salford CitySep 1LEA

D2-2TranmereAug 29LEA

L3-5Bristol RoversAug 22LEA

W3-0RochdaleAug 15LEA

L1-4AS RomaAug 4FRI

W2-1Yeovil TownAug 1FRI

L0-4ReadingJul 28FRI

D2-2Bath CityJul 25FRI

D0-0Bristol CityJul 21FRI

L1-2Gloucester CityJul 11FRI

Squad & Injuries

Gillingham

33 available

Attackers6

Midfielders17

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Newport County

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3