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Predictions graded

Newport County1York City1

HT 0–1Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 17–11On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 6–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 18:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Newport County's unbeaten home record meets a York City side without an away win, so the tension is whether Rodney Parade resilience holds against a team that dominates possession.

The likeliest outcome is Newport avoiding defeat. A Newport win or draw at 1.85, a Newport win at 3.4 and a drawn first half at 2.3 offer something at those odds; a York win at 1.88 and draw-or-York at 1.3 do not.

Context

Rodney Parade has been a low-scoring fortress: Newport's home wins have generally been decided by a single goal, and Colchester were kept out until Nyakuhwa's late intervention. That makes the venue a genuine obstacle for a York side that dominates possession but has struggled to turn control into goals, including in the 1-1 draw with Northampton. Newport's record reflects dogged defending and counter-attacking rather than superiority, so the unbeaten run should be read as resilience rather than dominance. The home side is likely to invite pressure and look to strike on the break.
- Newport beat Colchester United 1-0 at Rodney Parade on 10 October, with substitute Tanatswa Nyakuhwa scoring the 79th-minute winner.
- Colchester travelled to Rodney Parade aiming to become the first side to win there in League Two this season.
- Newport have not lost a home League Two game this season.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 18:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Newport lost their leading target man almost immediately against Colchester, with the club confirming Bamba replaced Doidge before the 10th minute. Doidge has been the reference point for Newport's attack, holding the ball up and linking with runners, so his absence would change how the home side builds play. The 1912 Exiles podcast said the early change forced a different attacking plan. No severity or recovery timeline has been confirmed, so this remains an availability question to monitor rather than a settled absence.
- Newport County confirmed Bamba replaced Christian Doidge during the first half of the 10 October game, with the score at 0-0.
- Newport County Thoughts said 'Feared the worst when Doidge went off' but that the team grew into the game.
To watchSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 18:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Lindsey's frustration followed a game York largely controlled but could not win, and the end of a 13-match home league winning run is a meaningful marker of how demanding the division has become for a promoted side. His comment points to a team still working out how to convert possession into points, which is the challenge a deep, resilient Newport defence presents. A single post-match interview does not establish a selection or shape change, and York's response will be judged at Rodney Parade.
- BBC Sport North Yorkshire reported Scott Lindsey's reaction of 'We have to do better' after York's 1-1 draw with Northampton Town on 10 October.
- The same outlet noted that Ollie Pearce's equaliser ended York's 13-game home winning streak in the league.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 18:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Boateng has been out for a considerable period, and Lindsey's public eagerness to work with him - he has said he tried to sign him at Crawley - signals the quality York believe they are missing in midfield. A ball-winning presence would be especially useful away from home, where York have not matched their possession-heavy home form. Supporters framed his return as a way to add steel and improve results on the road. The 8 October update is several days old and there is no confirmation he will be involved at Newport, so his availability remains developing.
- Gabriel Ramsey reported that Scott Lindsey said Hiram Boateng 'has ticked off a lot of what we need from him' in an injury update on 8 October.
- The Minstermen Forum, citing BBC Radio York, reported that Lindsey had tried to sign Boateng at Crawley and expected him to add steel to the midfield and help York's away form.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 18:10 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.40
The read
Newport have been hard to beat at Rodney Parade while York have taken few points on the road.
- Newport are unbeaten at home in League Two (W3 D2), scoring 9 and conceding 4 in 5 games
- York are winless away (D2 L2), scoring 4 and conceding 7 in 4 league games
- Newport home averages: 1.8 goals for and 0.8 against per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNewport CountyEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams start cautiously and first-half goals have been scarce.
- Newport have conceded 0 first-half goals at home
- York concede 0.17 first-half goals per away game
- Newport's last six first halves produced only 2 goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves between these teams have tended to be evenly shared.
- Newport home second-half goals for 1.0, against 0.8
- York away second-half goals for 0.67, against 1.17
- Both sides have scored and conceded after the break in recent games
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Newport have been hard to beat at Rodney Parade while York have taken few points on the road. Both sides play tight, low-scoring games and Newport have shared the points regularly.
- Newport are unbeaten at home in League Two (W3 D2), scoring 9 and conceding 4 in 5 games
- York are winless away (D2 L2), scoring 4 and conceding 7 in 4 league games
- Newport have drawn 4 of 11 competitive matches
- York have drawn 2 of their 4 away league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNewport County or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newport create the better first-half chances while York rarely lead at the break. Both teams start cautiously and first-half goals have been scarce.
- Newport score 0.8 first-half goals per home game
- York concede 0.17 first-half goals per away game
- Newport have conceded 0 first-half goals at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostNewport County or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both teams have generally stayed below three goals.
- Newport have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- York have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 recent matches
- Newport's last six games averaged under 2 goals each
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
At least one side being kept out has been the more common recent pattern.
- Newport have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- York away goals against average is 1.75 per game
- Neither side scores heavily, with both under 2 goals per game average
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
York have regularly scored on their travels, even without winning.
- Newport have conceded in 3 of 5 home league games
- York have scored in all four away league games
- York put four past Swindon at home recently
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonYork City to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newport's home scoring record makes it likely York concede at least once.
- Newport have scored in every home league game this season
- York concede 1.75 goals per away league game
- York have zero away clean sheets in four attempts
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNewport County to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half scoring rates point to at least one goal before the break.
- Newport home first-half averages: 0.8 for, 0 against
- York away first-half averages: 0.33 for, 0.17 against
- York scored in the first half in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
York's low away corner count keeps the combined total modest.
- York average only 1.7 corners per away game
- Newport home corners average 6.8
- Combined home and away corner averages sit near 8-9
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shooting averages fall below this line.
- Newport home shots 11.8, faced 11.2
- York away shots 9.8, faced 15.8
- Combined average sits near 24 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 26.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
On-target totals for both teams fall just short of this line on average.
- Newport home on-target 4.0, faced 3.0
- York away on-target 3.5, faced 4.3
- Expected combined on-target count around 7.5
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined bookings for the two teams sit close to three per game.
- Newport average 1.5 yellow cards per game
- York average 1.5 yellow cards per game
- Both sides have kept red cards rare in recent matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W0-1YorkvNewport CountyJan 16, 2016LEA

L0-3Newport CountyvYorkSep 5, 2015LEA

W0-2YorkvNewport CountyApr 25, 2015LEA

W3-1Newport CountyvYorkOct 11, 2014LEA

L1-0YorkvNewport CountyApr 26, 2014LEA

Newport County: 2 clean sheetsYork City: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

League Two 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	13-12	13	WDWDD
5	York City Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)	9	4	3	2	17-11	15	DWLWD

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Newport County

W1-0ColchesterOct 10LEA

D0-0GillinghamOct 3LEA

W2-1GrimsbySep 26LEA

W2-0Swindon TownSep 22EFL

D0-0Accrington STSep 19LEA

D1-1Fleetwood TownSep 12LEA

L0-1NorthamptonSep 5LEA

L1-2Salford CitySep 1LEA

D2-2TranmereAug 29LEA

L3-5Bristol RoversAug 22LEA

W3-0RochdaleAug 15LEA

L1-4AS RomaAug 4FRI

W2-1Yeovil TownAug 1FRI

L0-4ReadingJul 28FRI

D2-2Bath CityJul 25FRI

York City

D1-1NorthamptonOct 10LEA

W3-0GillinghamSep 26LEA

L0-2ChesterfieldSep 19LEA

L1-3Newcastle United U21Sep 15EFL

W4-0Swindon TownSep 12LEA

D1-1CreweSep 5LEA

L2-3CheltenhamSep 1LEA

W2-1Exeter CityAug 29LEA

D1-1RotherhamAug 22LEA

W3-2Bristol RoversAug 15LEA

L0-2Crawley TownAug 3LEA

L1-2PeterboroughJul 28FRI

D2-2Al-EttifaqJul 24FRI

L1-5SunderlandJul 18FRI

L2-4Pickering TownJul 14FRI

Squad & Injuries

Newport County

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

York City

33 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Newport County or Draw

Newport County

Draw

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Newport County

York City

Squad & Injuries

Newport County

York City