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Predictions graded

Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac1Radnik Surdulica0

HT 1–0Fri 23 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 18–13On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 7–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 21:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Fifth against sixth with both on 17 points, and the tension is Radnicki's strong home record against their own two-game scoring drought.

Radnicki look the likelier winners, but 1.75 for the home win asks plenty of a side beaten 0-3 and 0-2 without scoring. Both teams to score – No at 1.88 is the price that holds up: two clean sheets in four home league games for Radnicki, three goals in five away games for Radnik.

Context

Shukurov's move was reported by Central Asian football outlets in the first days of October. A 30-year-old international of that profile at a club of Radnik's size signals a midfielder signed to start, so his integration is the live selection question on the away side rather than a depth addition. If he takes a central role here, Radnik get more technical control than the version that sat deep for a 0-0 with Red Star. The reporting is specialist-outlet level with no Serbian club confirmation seen, and nothing establishes that he has displaced an existing starter.
- Eurasia Football reported on 4 October 2026 that Shukurov joined Radnik after featuring at the 2026 World Cup, with more than 90 caps for Uzbekistan and previous experience in Turkey under Andrea Pirlo.
- An Uzbekistan-focused account noted on 2 October 2026 that his Transfermarkt value is considerably higher than any other player at Radnik.
ReportedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Radnički were level with Red Star at half-time on 10 October and conceded three inside ten minutes, then had 51% of the ball and one shot on target in a 0-2 loss at Vojvodina on 17 October. The pattern bears on this fixture because Radnik have already shown they can absorb and counter: they held Red Star to 0-0 in September while seeing little of the ball at home. Radnički's home matches this season have produced heavy shot volume, so the exposure sits in transition when their midfield pushes up rather than in chance creation. Two match reports are the basis here, not a coaching explanation, so how much is structural and how much a short-term dip cannot be separated.
- N1 reported on 10 October 2026 that Kragujevac fell apart in ten minutes against Red Star after a level first half, losing 0-3 at home.
- An 11 October analyst thread said Radnički had the better of the first half at Red Star and singled out Glavčić and Ristić in possession with Bah and Cissé running vertically.
ReportedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Radnicki hold the recent edge in this fixture, though the margins have been thin throughout.
Four of the five meetings finished under 2.5 goals and the last four were separated by a single goal or drawn. That record argues against a comfortable home afternoon even though Radnicki's current home form is strong. The 0-0 in Kragujevac on 15 February 2026 is the most recent evidence of Radnik making this fixture awkward.
- 15 Feb 2026: Radnicki 0-0 Radnik in Kragujevac, Super Liga.
- 13 Sep 2025: Radnik 2-3 Radnicki; 8 Mar 2024: Radnik 0-1 Radnicki; 20 Dec 2023: Radnicki 1-0 Radnik; 5 Nov 2022: Radnicki 1-0 Radnik.
- All five meetings from November 2022 to February 2026 were decided by one goal or drawn; four finished under 2.5 goals.
Radnicki's home record is the mirror image — ten scored and four conceded in four league games in Kragujevac — so this is where the split gets tested. Radnik have scored three goals across five away matches, an average of 0.6 per game, while conceding 1.8. The same side that has 14 goals at home has managed three on the road.
- Standings snapshot 22 Oct 2026: Radnik home 7 played, 4W-3D-0L, 14 scored, 7 conceded; away 5 played, 0W-2D-3L, 3 scored, 9 conceded.
- Radnik's five away league matches average 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.35fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 74.1%

−8.1ppshort

Radnicki's home first-half scoring makes at least one goal before the break more likely than not.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.85fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 54.1%

−0.1ppshort

The recent head-to-head and Radnik's low away scoring point to a tighter game.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac

1.75fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 57.1%

−5.1ppshort

Radnicki's home scoring and Radnik's winless away record favour the hosts.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac

2.20fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 45.5%

−5.5ppshort

Radnicki's strong home first-half scoring and Radnik's low away first-half output favour the hosts at the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Radnicki's home scoring and Radnik's winless away record favour the hosts.
- Home record 3W-0D-1L with 10 goals in four home league games.
- Radnik away record 0W-2D-3L with 3 goals scored and 9 conceded.
- Radnicki home first-half goals average 1.5 and first-half conceded average 0.0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRadnicki 1923 KragujevacEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Radnicki's strong home first-half scoring and Radnik's low away first-half output favour the hosts at the break.
- Radnicki home first-half goals average 1.5; conceded 0.0.
- Radnik away first-half goals average 0.2; conceded 0.4.
- Radnicki's last two first halves ended 0-1 and 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRadnicki 1923 KragujevacEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Radnik's away second-half defensive record gives Radnicki the better chance after the break.
- Radnicki home second-half goals average 1.0; Radnik away second-half conceded average 1.4.
- Radnik away second-half goals average 0.4.
- Radnicki lost their last two second halves 0-1 and 0-3.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostRadnicki 1923 KragujevacEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radnicki's home scoring and Radnik's winless away record favour the hosts. Radnik's draw habit and the low-scoring last meeting keep a share of the points plausible.
- Home record 3W-0D-1L with 10 goals in four home league games.
- Radnik away record 0W-2D-3L with 3 goals scored and 9 conceded.
- Radnik have drawn 5 of 12 league matches.
- Radnik have drawn 2 of 5 away league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRadnicki 1923 Kragujevac or DrawEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radnicki's strong home first-half scoring and Radnik's low away first-half output favour the hosts at the break. A low-scoring first half is possible because Radnik rarely score before the break away from home.
- Radnicki home first-half goals average 1.5; conceded 0.0.
- Radnik away first-half goals average 0.2; conceded 0.4.
- Radnicki's last two first halves produced one goal in total.
- Radnik away first-half goals average 0.2.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRadnicki 1923 Kragujevac or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The recent head-to-head and Radnik's low away scoring point to a tighter game.
- Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
- Radnik away games average 2.4 goals and they scored only 3 in five.
- Radnicki failed to score in their last two league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Radnicki's home clean-sheet rate and Radnik's low away scoring lean toward one side not scoring.
- Radnicki kept clean sheets in 2 of 4 home league games.
- Radnik scored only 3 goals in 5 away league games.
- Radnik failed to score in 2 of 5 away league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Radnicki's home first-half scoring makes at least one goal before the break more likely than not.
- Radnicki home first-half goals average 1.5.
- Radnik's last six first halves averaged 1.67 goals.
- Radnik away first-half goals average 0.2.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent corner counts for both sides sit below the line.
- Radnicki's last six matches averaged 9.7 corners.
- Radnik away games average 9.4 corners.
- Radnik overall matches average 9.2 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shot averages point to a total below the line.
- Radnicki overall total shots average 27.5; Radnik overall 27.4.
- Radnicki home total shots average 26.5; Radnik away 26.6.
- Radnicki's last six matches averaged 26.2 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 30.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The home and away card averages sit just above the line.
- Radnicki home cards average 6.0; Radnik away cards average 6.2.
- Both teams average about 3 yellow cards per match.
- Radnicki's last two matches produced 4 and 3 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

D0-0Radnicki 1923vRadnik SurdulicaFeb 15, 2026SUP

W2-3Radnik SurdulicavRadnicki 1923Sep 13, 2025SUP

W0-1Radnik SurdulicavRadnicki 1923Mar 8, 2024SUP

L1-0Radnicki 1923vRadnik SurdulicaDec 20, 2023SUP

L1-0Radnicki 1923vRadnik SurdulicaNov 5, 2022SUP

Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac: 2 clean sheetsRadnik Surdulica: 3 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Super Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac Promotion - Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Championship Group)	11	5	2	4	17-14	17	LLWWD
6	Radnik Surdulica Promotion - Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Championship Group)	12	4	5	3	17-16	17	WLDDD